Key Takeaways From Pakistan Economic Survey – OpEd
Ministry of Finance has released Economic Survey of Pakistan for FY26 and based on that and in line with numbers reported by National Accounts Committee (NAC), Pakistan has provisionally recorded real GDP growth of 3.7% during nine months of FY26 as against 3.18% during the same period of FY25.
The GDP growth of 3.7% for FY26 is 4-year high and is also higher than last 5, 10 and 20-year average growth of 3.09%, 3.41% and 3.44%, respectively. While the initial target set by the government was 4.2%.
IMF and World Bank estimates FY26 GDP growth of Pakistan at 3.6% and 3.0%, respectively. Topline Securities maintains its GDP estimates for FY26 in range of 3.5 to 4.0%.
Services sector growth has posted provisional growth of 4.09% in FY26 as compared to 3.14% in FY25, making it the largest contributor to overall economic growth. Within services, Public Administration & Social Security and Information and Communication saw strong momentum with a growth of 8.54% and 7.52% respectively, while Financial and Insurance Activities posted a modest increase of 0.32%.
Industrial sector has posted provisional growth of 3.51% in FY26. Within this, manufacturing, construction and Mining and Quarrying drove the recovery to growth by 6.61%, 5.73%, and 0.38% respectively. Further small, large-scale manufacturing and Slaughtering see a huge growth of 8.50%, 6.11% and 6.19% respectively. These gains are partly offset by a sharp decline of 10.63% in Electricity, Gas and Water Supply.
Agri sector is expected to record a growth of 2.89% recovering from second lowest FY25 growth of 1.53% growth in 9 years, which is second lowest growth in last 9 years. Important Crops and Cotton rebounded from last year’s steep contractions of 13.49% and 19.03%, respectively, to contribution of 0.65% and 0.07% to overall agricultural growth. Meanwhile, Livestock, Forestry, and Fishing are estimated to grow by 3.75%, 2.02%, and 1.66%, respectively, providing stability to the sector.
