Russia-Iran-China: Geopolitical Shadows On Hamas-Israel War – Analysis


The Russia-Iran-China Trilateral as a geopolitical entity with strong strategic convergences arising from their common geopolitical and military confrontation with United States emerge in geopolitical analysis as complicit in the Hamas unprovoked barbaric surprise military offensive against Israel. The scale and ongoing military intensity of Hamas offensives against Israel are beyond the military capability of a terrorist city-state and pointedly suggests of Russia-Iran-China shadows on emboldening Hamas’s military misadventure.

Contextually, Russia, Iran and China perceive that the United States and Allies and with a strong posse’ of ‘Strategic Partners’ have checkmated their regional and global power blueprints and therefore emerge convergent strong impulses to strategically hit-back at the United States, and where better than a proxy Hamas attack on Israel with a full-blown military offensive.

Russia perceives that the United States has checkmated Russian Invasion of Ukraine by direct weapons deliveries to Ukraine and by its NATO Allies. Ukraine’s spirited resistance against superior Russian Forces and Ukrainian counter-offensives against Russia emerge from US assistance. In the ongoing conflict, Russian President Putin has been unable to conceal his preferences for Iran and Iran-backed Hamas. Russia has not condemned Hamas War on Israel nor the bestial atrocities inflicted on Israeli civilians. Russia on the other hand supports a Two-Nation partition of Israel for obvious reasons.

Iran in current war scenario is seen noticeably as actively in support of Hamas. Iranian Supreme Spiritual Leader Khamenei has extolled the Hamas Offensive against Israel and predicted the extermination of Israel by Hamas. Iranian President Raisi made congratulatory telephone calls to Hamas on their offensive. Iran has never been apologetic about its strong hatred United States and Israel, which acquire paranoid proportions.

 Iran has ever since 1979 been engaged in  proxy wars against the United States and Israel through its involvement in various civil wars and conflicts that plague the Middle East region. Iran has created two powerful Armed Militias to militarily tie down Israel in a military cleft-stick. Hezbollah in the North is based in Lebanon, and Hamas in the South, which violently acquired political control of Gaza Strip. Both Hezbollah and Hamas are said to be financed, armed and under operational control of Iran.

Iran’s facilitation of Hamas offensive warfare capabilities were testified on a TV show by a Former IRGC General who asserted that Hamas rocket arsenal and advanced weaponry were made possible by Iran. This confirms the assessments of the global strategic community that Iran is solidly behind Hamas and exercises operational control over Hamas.

China and United States figure prominently in each other’s threat perceptions with United States hemming-in China in n the Western Pacific with US & Allies military deployments. China chafes against this US strategy and perceives that US is impeding China’s emergence as a global power. China therefore is constantly engaged in creating alternative strategic pressure-points against US in volatile regions like the Middle East.

China’s main focus in this has been to build a strategic relationship with Iran which is in military confrontation with United States, and is under severe US economic sanctions. China defies US sanctions and provides Iran with economic lifelines. Both China and Iran are now bound by a 25-year Strategic Partnership signed recently,

Iran’s active involvement as strategic patron of Hamas and Hezbollah militarily investing Israel both from North and South as Iran’s proxies’ stands well established. This is further reinforced by Hezbollah, obviously under Iranian orders opening a ‘second front’ to relieve Israeli military pressure on Hamas in Gaza Strip.  

Iran’s official statements deny any “Direct Involvement” in the Hamas offensive on Israel diabolically executed with medieval fury. A fine diplomatese statement carefully worded but does not deny Iran’s indirect involvement. Iran is directly and indirectly involved in planning andbuild-up over months or even years of Hamas offensive against Israel whose extinction is sought by both.

The moot question now at this stage of analysis is as to how Russia and China’s shadows stand cast on Hamas-Israel War? The foregoing analysis has examined individual strategic rationales of Russia, Iran, and China’s animus and confrontation with the United States. Russia and China have no individual conflictual issues with Israel like Iran has. Iran suffers from paranoiac US-centric and Israel-centric threat perceptions.

In the current Hamas-Israel War ongoing by joining the dots of Russia, Iran, and China’s individual strategic rationales against United States, and contextualising it with United States “Rock-Solid” commitment to Israel’s national security and existence, the shadows of Russia-Iran-China geopolitical shadows over the Hamas-Israel War become apparent.  

Russia and China have seized and seemingly exploiting the opportunity offered by the Hamas-Israel War to strategically discomfit the United States by getting actively embroiled in this Middle East conflict and thereby reduces US pressures on them in Ukraine and Western Pacific. The United States will tend to get inextricably and deeply entrenched in Hamas-Israel War as Iran increases the military pressures on Israel by its Hamas and Hezbollah proxies.

This suits both Russia and China admirably. Hence, Russia’s and China’s ongoing political support for Iran and its proxy militias investing Israel.

Concluding, this analysis, one need to draw attention to my preceding analysis which posed certain pertinent questions on Iran’s continued support to Hamas and Hezbollah’s proxy operations against Israel on Iran’s behalf. Inherently, this carries the dangers of widening and escalating the conflict to Iran’s doorsteps.

Dr. Subhash Kapila

Dr Subhash Kapila combines a rich and varied professional experience of Indian Army Brigadier ( Veteran), diplomatic assignments in the United States, Japan, South Korea, and Bhutan. Served in India's Cabinet Secretariat also. He is a Graduate of Royal British Army Staff College, Camberley, UK, Msc Defence Studies from Madras University and a Doctorate in Strategic Studies from Allahabad University. Papers have been presented by him in International Seminars in Japan,Turkey, Russia and Vietnam. Credited to him are over 1,500 Papers on geopolitical & strategic topical issues and foreign policies of USA, Japan, India, China and Indo Pacific Asia. He has authored two Books : "India's Defence Policies & Strategic Thought: A Comparative Analysis" and "China-India Military Confrontation: 21st Century Perspectives"

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