Trump’s Vision Of A Multipolar World: G2 And The Strategic Role Of Serbia And Belarus – Analysis
By IFIMES
When US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Busan, South Korea, on 30 October 2025, on the margins of the APEC Summit, many viewed it as yet another routine diplomatic episode. However, it was in fact a continuation of their personal and political dialogue initiated during Trump’s first term, including their most recent direct meeting in June 2019 in Osaka. The talks in Busan centred on efforts to de-escalate the US–China trade war, covering agreements on rare minerals, tariff arrangements, the purchase of American agricultural goods, and broader issues of bilateral trade, investment, technological cooperation and regional political stability.
Immediately after the meeting, Trump addressed reporters aboard Air Force One on his return to the United States, describing the encounter as “an amazing meeting” and rating it “12 out of 10”, while announcing further visits and the continuation of direct dialogue. The Busan meeting therefore represented a logical continuation of the diplomatic dynamic set in motion during his earlier term.
Trump’s “G2” concept is not a return to Cold War thinking, nor does it imply the creation of a new global duopoly. It represents an attempt by the United States to protect its own interests while establishing a functional channel of cooperation with China, without assuming the full burden of global leadership. China accepts this framework symbolically, but remains committed to the notion of a multipolar world and to pursuing its own strategic path.
By reviving a concept long considered outdated in US policy, Trump expands the G2 model by including smaller yet strategically highly important states in Asia, Africa and Europe. This analysis focuses on two such stable and geopolitically crucial European states – Belarus and Serbia – while the broader framework also encompasses countries such as Vietnam, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kazakhstan, the UAE, Morocco and other states that already play, or may assume, a significant role in the new US strategy.
“On Time” captures precisely this new global strategic approach adopted by Washington and illustrates how the United States intends to navigate its growing rivalry with China.
G2 – origin and concept
The “G2” concept first appeared in US policy in a much more modest form than the one it takes today. It was proposed in 2005 by influential economist Fred Bergsten[2] as a practical response to the challenges posed by China’s rapid economic rise during the administration of President George W. Bush. The underlying idea was for the United States and China to develop a mechanism of strategic cooperation and joint action on issues of global importance, enabling Beijing to become a “responsible stakeholder” in the international order.
The concept reached its peak during the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC 2008), when China played a crucial role in international efforts to avert a complete collapse of the world economy. That period clearly demonstrated that coordination between major powers can have a decisive impact on the stability of the global economic system.
Today, however, China possesses a much stronger economy and far more technologically advanced capabilities than it did when the “G2” was first proposed. Furthermore, its accelerated military development has significantly narrowed its strategic gap with the United States, making the global balance of power more complex and more dynamic than ever before.[3]
The United States and China: cooperation, rivalry and pragmatism
The United States and China do cooperate, but cautiously, given their deep economic, trade and investment interdependence. Trump recognised that traditional forms of pressure and alliances were no longer sufficient to contain China. Rather than opting for open confrontation, it is strategically more appropriate to balance interests — cooperating where possible, while remaining prepared for rivalry.
Trump’s vision of US–China relations differs clearly from the approach of his predecessors, such as Barack Obama. Whereas Obama sought to integrate China through global institutions and multilateral mechanisms, focusing on a partnership-based relationship, Trump places emphasis on pragmatism, the balance of power and the direct protection of US interests. His approach includes selective cooperation, but without illusions about China’s long-term reliability.
Such a strategy requires a high degree of forethought, precision and long-term planning, as any misstep may have serious consequences. The focus is not on open confrontation, but on the strategic balancing of interests and the management of rivalry. Only carefully considered and precise decisions can preserve stability and ensure the long-term protection of US interests in the complex relationship with China.
China within the G2: multipolarity and long-term strategy
China does not formally reject the G2 concept, but applies it pragmatically: not as a means of subordination to the United States, but as a framework for coordination on issues of shared interest and for access to the American economic sphere, thereby strengthening its influence and access to key markets. Through the G2, China balances between cooperation and competition, while simultaneously promoting multipolarity and safeguarding its autonomy in decision-making.
Its long-term strategy is multilayered and pragmatic: it makes full use of diplomatic and economic tools, expands its global influence without direct confrontation with the United States, develops international institutions that reinforce multipolarity, and lays the groundwork for its ambition to become the world’s leading economic power, with the United States occupying a secondary position.
Chinese strategists are aware that China cannot, either in theory or in practice, become the leading power at this stage, and they anticipate that achieving this goal will take decades. For that reason, they plan their policies with a long-term perspective, focusing on stable and sustainable economic growth and maintaining enduring global relevance.[4]
Other players in the multipolar order
The G2 concept entails certain risks, as it presupposes that the United States and China alone can shape the global order. Other states—such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Morocco, Serbia, Belarus, Vietnam, India, and several countries in Europe and Africa—cannot ignore the influence of major economic and military powers and are compelled to follow their strategies and adapt their own policies accordingly.
Within the informal G2 framework, it is difficult to accommodate one side without jeopardising relations with the other. For this reason, states seek to carefully navigate between the major powers, even in the context of rivalry with the United States. At the same time, maintaining strong economic and investment relations with China presents a challenge, as this must be done without compromising ties with the United States.
For the time being, China is focusing on economic growth and expanding its global influence, rather than on military expansion. Each state develops strategies that ensure security, economic progress and the strengthening of regional influence while preserving its independence in the multipolar order. In this context, it is worth recalling the words of Henry Kissinger: “To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.”[5]
Serbia – the strategic key of Europe and the Balkans
Serbia occupies a key geopolitical and economic position in the Balkans, in Europe and in Eurasia, making it a particularly important partner for major powers, including the United States and China, within the informal G2 framework. Both countries view Serbia with considerable attention, recognising its potential as a regional balancing point, a gateway to the Balkans and a bridge to the European market.
For the United States, Serbia is crucial for preserving regional stability and the security of the transatlantic alliance. Its neutral and non-aligned policy reduces tensions and provides space for strategic initiatives without direct confrontation with Russia or other regional actors.
For China, Serbia represents an important investment hub and a gateway for expanding its economic influence in the European Union. Through infrastructure projects, energy initiatives and technological investments, Chinese companies use Serbia as an entry point to the wider European market. Both powers carefully listen to and monitor Belgrade’s political and economic decisions, aware that the country’s stability and predictability allow for long-term investments and strategic cooperation that benefits all sides.
Under the leadership of President Aleksandar Vučić, Serbia has created a stable and predictable environment for economic growth, international cooperation and regional security and stability. The country balances between major powers, develops its own strategic vision and creates a favourable climate for foreign investment, positioning itself as a key bridge between East and West and as a central point in the multipolar world, with a distinct place in the plans and interests of the major G2 powers.[6]
Belarus – a pillar of stability in Eurasia
Belarus today stands out as a rare example of continuity and resilience in Eastern Europe and Eurasia. While many former Soviet republics experienced unrest, internal conflicts or regional wars after the collapse of the USSR — such as Armenia, Azerbaijan, Ukraine and Georgia — Belarus, under the notable and pragmatic leadership of President Aleksandr Lukashenko, has preserved stability, sovereignty and internal security for three decades. This remarkable continuity of state governance reflects Lukashenko’s capacity for a pragmatic, measured and farsighted style of leadership, which has made the country a reliable partner and a pillar of the regional order.
Both major powers within the G2 — the United States and China — devote particular attention to Belarus, recognising its strategic position and its capacity to navigate the interests of East and West. For the United States, Belarus is crucial for preserving regional stability, national security and the transatlantic alliance. Trump’s approach to this issue is devoid of stereotypes, reservations or any sense of superiority — a clear contrast to that of his predecessors and many leaders within the European Union — as he recognises the strategic importance and value of Minsk. This is confirmed by Trump’s telephone conversation with President Lukashenko on 15 August 2025, as well as a series of visits to Belarus by members of the US President’s inner circle, which further underscore the seriousness of American interest in cooperation and regional stability.
For China, Belarus represents a strategic node within the Polar Silk Road, with the potential for future investments and economic projects that connect Chinese capital with broader European markets. Through multiple meetings with the Chinese President, Lukashenko has further strengthened bilateral cooperation in infrastructure, energy and technological initiatives, positioning Minsk as a key strategic partner in China’s global vision. Belarus also serves as the last point along the European Union’s external border and as a key link within the Belt and Road Initiative (B&R) and the SCO Eurasian corridor, which further increases its strategic significance.
These three decades of stability have made Belarus a unique pillar of security and continuity in the region — a country that balances major powers, creates space for investment and international cooperation, and lays the foundations for long-term economic and geopolitical stability in Europe and the wider Eurasian area.[7]
Trump’s G2 vision for peace and prosperity
Trump’s G2 vision, in parallel with the G7, marks the beginning of a new era of peaceful multipolar stability, establishing predictable channels for investment, international cooperation and conflict prevention. A leader who combines determination with a partnership-based approach to key global actors creates a framework in which peace, security and economic prosperity can take shape.
Donald Trump, one of the most charismatic and influential American presidents since the Second World War, is redefining global leadership. His vision, free of stereotypes, reservations and complexes, allows the United States, through the G2 partnership with China, to shape a predictable and stable world order while strengthening strategic ties with neutral and Eastern states such as Serbia, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Syria. Robust relations with Turkey and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan open key geopolitical gateways to the Caucasus, the Balkans and the Middle East, underpinning peace and economic development.
Trump ranks among the most influential American presidents, alongside Woodrow Wilson (1913–1921), who laid the foundations of American diplomacy; Dwight D. Eisenhower (1953–1961), who steered the United States decisively through the Cold War and expanded its global influence; and Ronald Reagan (1981–1989), whose presidency culminated in the fall of the Berlin Wall. His ability to prevent seven wars during his first year in office, and now to play an active role in efforts to end the civil war in Sudan, reflects a unique blend of determination, charisma and strategic vision.
The synergy of American power and Trump’s global G2 vision is giving rise to a new multipolar order in which peace, prosperity and stability prevail through strong diplomacy, strategic coordination and visionary leadership. Trump is not only shaping the present but also laying the groundwork for a secure and prosperous world for future generations.[8]
The vision of global balance and the strategic path of a multipolar world
The defining struggle in the world of 2025 is not taking place solely between the United States and China. It unfolds between different approaches, visions and strategies that shape the multipolar world. Within this landscape, Serbia and Belarus occupy key positions in Europe and Eurasia. Their ability to navigate between major powers while advancing their own strategic policies makes them important factors in helping define the future global order.
Serbia and Belarus serve as examples of states that, through a thoughtful and pragmatic approach, strengthen regional stability and open channels for international cooperation. They act as bridges between major powers, supporting predictability in economic, diplomatic and security matters and providing the foundations for the long-term development of their regions.
The future of the multipolar world hinges on the capacity for strategic action in key regions, together with coordinated and effective cooperation with states able to balance the interests of major powers. A pragmatic, thoughtful and partnership-driven approach remains the only path to securing stability, economic growth and peace in the global environment. In this sense, Serbia and Belarus are emerging as pillars of the new multipolar architecture in Europe and Eurasia, helping ensure that the G2 vision remains both sustainable and prosperous.
[1] IFIMES – International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal “European Perspectives.” Available at: https://www.europeanperspectives.org/en
[2] C. Fred Bergsten, senior fellow and director emeritus, was the founding director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics (formerly the Institute for International Economics) from 1981 to 2012. He is currently serving his second term as a member of the President’s Advisory Committee for Trade Policy and Negotiations. Available at https://www.academyofdiplomacy.org/members-1/bergsten/c.-fred?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[3] The Group (G2) is a hypothetical and informal framework comprising the United States and the People’s Republic of China, initially proposed by C. Fred Bergsten in 2005 and later taken up by other analysts. Although the original concept was primarily economic in nature, more recent iterations adopt a broader and more comprehensive scope. Available at: https://www.piie.com/sites/default/files/publications/testimony/bergsten20120523.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[4] China’s Grand Strategy: Trends, Trajectories, and Long‑Term Competition.RAND Corporation, 2020. Available at: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2798.html
[5] Henry Kissinger “To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.”. Available at: https://www.amazon.com/Kissinger-Biography-Walter-Isaacson/dp/0743286979
[6] US-Serbian Relations on the Move? There are signals from Washington that an improved relationship is on the cards, with Serbia arguing the US has much to gain. Available at: https://cepa.org/article/us-serbian-relations-on-the-move/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[7] Belarus on Thin Ice – Future Scenarios and European Policy Dilemmas. Kaspar Pucek & Bob Deen Clingendael Report January 2025. Available at: https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/2025-01/belarus-on-thin-ice.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Aliaksei Patonia – Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Belarus: a strategic point for China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Available at: https://www.blue-europe.eu/analysis-en/short-analysis/belarus-a-strategic-point-for-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[8] The Diplomat, 07 November 2025: Trump’s G2 Moment: Dawn of a New World Order? Available at: https://thediplomat.com/2025/11/trumps-g2-moment-dawn-of-a-new-world-order/?
