Between Giants: How Singapore Navigates US-China-Russia Rivalries – OpEd
In 2025 Singapore will find itself at the centre a of complex geopolitical balancing act navigating the rivalries among the United States China and Russia in Southeast Asia. This strategic tightrope walk underscores Singapore’s role as a neutral and pragmatic actor in a region that is increasingly pivotal to global power dynamics. Historically Singapore has embraced a foreign policy of multilateralism economic openness and strategic neutrality to safeguard its sovereignty and economic prosperity. However, the intensification of great power competition poses significant challenges compelling Singapore to adapt its strategies while maintaining its delicate balance. This essay explores how Singapore manages its relationships with these three powers the problems and challenges it encounters and the broader implications for Southeast Asia.
Singapore’s geopolitical significance stems from its location at the crossroads of major maritime trade routes and its role as a global financial hub. The United States with its Indo-Pacific strategy continues to prioritize Southeast Asia to counterbalance China’s rising influence. Washington’s military presence and alliances in the region reflect its commitment to preserving a rules-based order. On the other hand, China’s Belt Road and Initiative (BRI) and its activities in the South China Sea demonstrate its ambitions to dominate the region economically and strategically. Meanwhile, though Russia is less prominent than the US or China has sought to expand its influence through arms sales energy projects and diplomatic engagement with ASEAN countries. In this context, Singapore has adopted a pragmatic approach that prioritizes economic diversification diplomatic engagement and strategic autonomy.
Singapore’s strategy exemplifies its efforts to navigate great power rivalries. The United States remain a key trading partner and a source of advanced technology particularly in sectors such as finance cybersecurity and digital innovation. At the same time, China is Singapore’s largest trading partner with bilateral trade exceeding $150 billion in 2024. Singapore’s participation in the Regional Comprehensive Partnership Economic (RCEP) highlights its commitment to regional trade while the integration of its cooperation with China with digital infrastructure and green finance demonstrates its approach to economic pragmatics to engagement. Russia though less central to Singapore’s economy offers opportunities in energy and defense with collaboration bilateral trade reaching $6 billion in 2024. Diversifying its economic partnerships mitigates Singapore’s overdependence power while itself positioning as a vital node in the global trade network.
Singapore diplomatically has leveraged its reputation as a neutral reliable mediator to foster dialogue among competing powers. It actively participates in ASEAN-led platforms such as the ASEAN Regional Forum and the regional East Asia Summit to promote stability. In 2024 Singapore hosted a high-dialogue level involving US Chinese and Russian officials emphasizing its role as a bridge between rival powers. Additionally, Singapore’s consistent advocacy of international law including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) underscores its commitment to a rules-based order. However, Singapore’s diplomatic balancing act is not a challenge. The intensifying US-China rivalry, particularly over issues such as Taiwan and the South China Sea, puts pressure on Singapore to take sides potentially jeopardizing its neutral stance.
Security considerations further complicate Singapore’s balancing act. The US- Singapore defence partnership anchored by the 1990 Memorandum of Understanding facilitates the rotational deployment of US military assets in Singapore. This partnership underscores Singapore’s reliance on US security guarantees to deter regional threats. Simultaneously Singapore has deepened its military and strategic ties with China conducting joint naval exercises and participating in China-led security forums. Russia although a significantly less secure partner offered Singapore advanced defence technologies and cybersecurity collaboration. The challenge for Singapore lies in managing these relationships without provoking suspicion backlash from any of the major powers. For instance, the US Indo-Pacific strategy’s emphasis countering on China’s influence may strain Singapore’s efforts to maintain balanced ties with Beijing.
Despite its strategic adeptness Singapore faces problems significant and challenges navigating great power rivalries. One major issue is the escalating tension between the US and China has far-reaching implications for regional stability. The South China Sea dispute remains a flashpoint with both powers engaging in military maneuvers and asserting competing claims. For Singapore, any conflict in the South China Sea would disrupt vital trade routes and undermine regional security. Additionally, the growing economic bifurcation between the US and China particularly in technology and supply chains forces Singapore to navigate to competing standards and regulatory regimes. In 2024 Singapore faced pressure to restrict the adoption of 5G Chinese technologies due to US concerns about security highlighting the difficulty of balancing economic and security interests.
Russia’s role in Southeast Asia presents another layer of complexity. While the influence in the region is relatively limited compared to the US and China, its deepening ties with certain ASEAN countries such as Vietnam and Myanmar pose challenges for Singapore’s regional diplomacy. Moreover, Singapore’s response to Russia’s actions on the global stage such as its invasion of Ukraine has tested its neutral stance. In 2024, Singapore joined Western sanctions against Russia, prompting criticism from Moscow and complicating bilateral relations. This incident underscores the difficulty of maintaining neutrality in an era of heightened geopolitical polarization.
Domestically Singapore’s pressures are related to public opinion economics and resilience. As a small open economy, Singapore is vulnerable to external shocks arising from geopolitical tensions. For instance, prolonged a US-China trade war could disrupt supply chains affecting Singapore’s export-driven economy. Additionally, public sentiment plays a role in shaping foreign policy decisions. While Singaporeans broadly support the government’s pragmatic approach there is growing concern about the country’s dependence on external powers and the potential risks of entanglement in great power conflicts.
Looking ahead Singapore’s ability to navigate to great power rivalries will hinge on its adaptability and resilience. Strengthening ASEAN’s role as a neutral platform for dialogue is essential to mitigating regional tensions. Singapore’s leadership in advancing regional cooperation on issues such as digital transformation climate change and maritime security can enhance its credibility as a constructive player. Additionally investing in economic diversification and technological innovation will reduce Singapore’s vulnerability to external pressures. At the same time, it must continue to uphold its principles of international neutrality, even while competing with other powers.
In conclusion, Singapore’s careful balancing act between the United States, China, Russia, and Southeast Asia demonstrates its commitment to safeguarding its sovereignty, economic prosperity, and regional stability. By adopting a pragmatic and balanced approach Singapore has managed to maintain positive relationships with all three powers while leveraging its position as a neutral mediator and economic hub. However, challenges posed by intensifying rivalries regional security risks and domestic pressures require Singapore to remain vigilant and adaptive. As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve Singapore’s ability to navigate complexities will be crucial not only for its future but also for the stability and prosperity of Southeast Asia.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own.
References
- Chan, Heng Chee. Singapore: A History of Diplomacy and Development. Oxford University Press, 2019.
- Mahbubani, Kishore. The ASEAN Miracle: A Catalyst for Peace. NUS Press, 2017.
- Shambaugh, David. Where Great Powers Meet: America and China in Southeast Asia. Oxford University Press, 2021.
