West Bengal Elections: Trinamool Congress Holds Edge Over Resurgent BJP – Analysis

The poll, slated for April 23, is a moment to decide whether it should stay Left or turn Right   

West Bengal’s politico-social fabric stands at a critical juncture. The state Assembly elections, scheduled for April 23 and 29, will help determine whether the state’s politics remain predominantly centrist and secular — preserving Hindu-Muslim harmony — or shift toward a more right-wing orientation that emphasizes Hindu nationalism, potentially at the expense of the Muslim community.

The Hindu-Muslim divide is especially salient in West Bengal, where Muslims make up about 27% of the state’s roughly 93–106 million population (based on 2011 census figures and subsequent estimates). 

With the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the centrist-secular Indian National Congress (INC) marginalized over the past 15 years, the contest has narrowed to one between the centrist-secular Trinamool Congress (TMC), led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, and the right-wing, Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Recent opinion polls suggest the TMC retains an edge over the BJP. However, given the charged nature of key issues — particularly the revision of voter lists to remove alleged illegal infiltrators from Bangladesh — the BJP has been gaining ground rapidly and could yet upset expectations.

Opinion polls conducted by Ananda Bazar Patrika (ABP) and CNN-News18 project the TMC winning around 161 of the 294 seats, with the BJP taking 124, the Congress 9, and the CPI(M) none. 

In terms of vote share, the race appears much tighter: the TMC is projected at about 43%, the BJP at 40%, and the Congress at 16%.

The TMC is banking heavily on the charisma of the 71 year old Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. She is seen as a feisty defender of popular causes. Despite seeking a fourth term and facing controversies during her long tenure, she projects herself as a grassroots Bengali leader ready to take to the streets — or even argue West Bengal’s case in the Supreme Court — against any perceived injustice. She also balances outreach to the Muslim community with visible assertions of her own Hindu identity.

In contrast, the BJP is focusing on the Hindu majority’s concerns over the growing Muslim population share and alleged large-scale illegal migration from Bangladesh. Union Home Minister Amit Shah has repeatedly referred to such infiltrators as “termites” that must be removed.

Voter List Revisions

In a state where many seats in the 2021 elections were decided by narrow margins of 2,000–5,000 votes, even small changes to the electoral rolls can prove decisive. 

Because of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the electoral rolls by the Election Commission of India (ECI) conducted ahead of the polls, significant shifts have occurred in districts bordering Bangladesh, where citizenship and migration issues dominate the TMC-BJP contest.

Under the SIR of electoral rolls conducted ahead of the 2026 polls, approximately 90.66 lakh names were deleted in West Bengal. The State’s electorate shrank from about 7.66 crore to roughly 6.75–6.77 crore — a reduction of nearly 12%. 

Deletions were particularly high in border districts such as Murshidabad (Muslim-majority, with 4.55 lakh removed in the adjudication phase alone), North 24 Parganas, and Malda.

Of the deletions, Hindus accounted for about 57.47 lakh (roughly 63%), while Muslims numbered around 31.1 lakh (about 34%). Although Hindus form the largest absolute number of deletions, consistent with their 70–72% share of the population, the Muslim proportion of deletions exceeds their overall population share of 27%, raising questions of disproportionate impact in certain areas populated by Muslims.

In some constituencies, the pattern appears even more skewed. In Nandigram (a BJP stronghold), over 95% of deleted names were reportedly Muslim. In Bhabanipur (Mamata Banerjee’s own constituency, where Muslims constitute about 20% of the population), Muslims accounted for around 40% of deletions.

Opposition parties, particularly the TMC, have alleged political motives behind such patterns, framing the exercise as potential disenfranchisement of minority and TMC-leaning voters.

The Election Commission has described the SIR as a routine cleanup of ineligible entries — such as duplicates, deceased persons, or untraceable voters — carried out under judicial oversight with provisions for claims, objections, and appeals. 

Nonetheless, critics continue to question the process’s fairness.

Communal rhetoric has further intensified the atmosphere. A TMC leader and founder of the Aam Janata Unnayan Party, Humayun Kabir, stirred controversy by declaring that he would build another “Babri Masjid” in West Bengal to consolidate Muslim support. 

The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) led by the Hyderabad based leader Owaisi, could also siphon some Muslim votes away from the TMC.

However, surveys indicate strong Muslim satisfaction with the TMC, while Dalits show notable dissatisfaction. Youth voters appear restless, whereas older voters tend to back the ruling party. 

The urban belt — including Kolkata, Salt Lake, and urban Howrah — largely supports the TMC, driven by welfare schemes and women-centric initiatives, though the BJP is making inroads among the educated middle class here.

Mamata Banerjee personally enjoys solid approval, with 41% of respondents favouring her continuation as Chief Minister. However, the BJP remains a close contender, and its leaders are viewed favourably, especially by lower castes.

The BJP’s primary challenge lies in a perceived disconnect. While it emphasizes illegal migration from Bangladesh, many voters — particularly the youth — prioritize jobs and economic opportunities.

The TMC, for its part, and very rightly, accuses the Central government of harassment through investigative agencies. Yet a significant section of voters remains ambivalent on this issue, given the party’s 15 years in power showing warts.

Where Mamata Banerjee has scored strongly is with women voters. Her welfare programs have empowered them, shifting their role from passive recipients to influential decision-makers in households. 

Her key schemes include Lakshmir Bhandar (monthly financial support for women from vulnerable families), Kanyashree and Rupashree (aid for education and marriage), Manabik pension, and Samajik Suraksha (support for the elderly and disabled).

To address youth unemployment, the TMC government launched Banglar Yuva Sathi on April 1, 2026, providing INR 1,500 per month to eligible job-seekers aged 21–40 with secondary education (capped at five years or until employment is secured). 

Rural initiatives such as income support for landless labourers, Krishak Bandhu, Jal Dharo Jal Bharo, and Matir Katha aim to bolster agricultural resilience.

Ultimately, the 2026 verdict in West Bengal will hinge on two broad factors: the TMC’s record over the past 15 years and its promises for the next five, versus the BJP’s ability to present a credible alternative. 

Overlaying these are deeper questions of Bengali identity, Hindu-Muslim harmony (emphasized by Mamata Banerjee), and the perceived threat of demographic change due to migration from Bangladesh (highlighted by the BJP).