India: Renewed Violence In Manipur – Analysis
By SATP
By Afsara Shaheen
Fresh violence has erupted across Manipur, signalling a renewed phase of instability. A series of incidents involving inter-group clashes, targeted attacks on civilians, and the use of heavy weaponry has heightened tensions, particularly in Ukhrul and Bishnupur Districts. The resurgence of violence underscores the persistence of deep ethnic divisions, the active presence of multiple armed formations, and the continued volatility of both hill and valley regions, even as the State remains in a fragile post–President’s Rule transition.
On April 18, 2026, two Tangkhul Naga civilians, including a retired Indian Army soldier, were killed and another two were injured when suspected Kuki militants ambushed vehicles along National Highway-202 at T.M. Kasom village in the Ukhrul District of Manipur. The deceased, identified as SW Chinaoshang (46) and Yaruingam Vashum (42), were shot while travelling as commuters. The attack also damaged multiple vehicles, triggering panic among civilians using the route. Security Forces (SFs) subsequently launched combing operations and reinforced deployments in the area to prevent escalation. The Manipur Government handed over the investigation into the incident to the National Investigation Agency (NIA), reflecting its seriousness and the need for a credible investigation.
The National Socialist Council of Nagalim-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) condemned the killings, attributing responsibility to Kuki armed groups operating under the Suspension of Operations (SoO) arrangement. The outfit accused such groups of exceeding “all tolerance limits” and alleged collusion with SFs, warning that Nagas may be compelled to take “defensive measures.” The statement reflects the deepening mistrust between Naga and Kuki armed formations and signals the risk of retaliatory mobilisation, which could further destabilise already tense areas in Ukhrul and adjoining hill districts. This would dramatically widen the tensions in the state which were, hitherto, limited to the conflict between the Kuki and Meitei communities.
This incident is part of a broader pattern of escalating confrontations between rival armed groups. On April 13, 2026, at least four suspected cadres of the Kuki National Army-Burma (KNA-B) were reportedly killed in a gunfight with NSCN-IM cadres along the Indo-Myanmar border in Kamjong District. The clash, occurring between Ashang Khullen and Phaiyang village across the border in Myanmar, reportedly began after KNA-B cadres entered contested territory and initiated an attack. The recovery of four AK-series rifles from the deceased suggests the continued availability of sophisticated weaponry among militant formations and underscores the militarisation of border areas.
Earlier, on April 10, 2026, a Border Security Force (BSF) Constable, Mithun Mandal, was killed after being struck by a stray bullet during an exchange of fire between suspected Kuki-Zo militants and Tangkhul Naga village volunteers at Mongkot Chepu village under Litan Police Station in Ukhrul District. The incident highlights the growing involvement of armed civilian volunteers aligned along ethnic lines, complicating the conflict landscape and increasing risks for SF personnel deployed in volatile zones.
Violence has also extended into the valley districts, reflecting the widening geographic spread of insecurity. On April 7, 2026, three persons were killed when Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel allegedly opened fire on protesters in Tronglaobi in Bishnupur District, following clashes outside a CRPF camp. The protests were triggered by public anger over a prior militant attack that had killed two children in the early hours of April 7, at Tronglaobi Awang Leikai in Moirang, Bishnupur. As tensions escalated, sections of the crowd reportedly attempted to storm the camp, leading to the use of force by CRPF personnel. The incident resulted in casualties and prompted the State Government to suspend internet services across five districts – Imphal West, Imphal East, Thoubal, Kakching and Bishnupur – to contain unrest.
The triggering event for these protests was a deadly projectile attack on April 7, 2026, in Moirang Tronglaobi village, where two minor siblings were killed and their mother critically injured after a suspected rocket strike targeted their residence. The attack, attributed to suspected Kuki militants operating from nearby hill areas, demonstrated the increasing use of high-impact weaponry, including improvised rockets or mortars, against civilian targets. Residents reported that the projectile was fired from a distance of over three kilometres, indicating both planning and technical capability.
Subsequent investigations led to the arrest of five militants of the United Kuki National Liberation Army (UKNLA) by the NIA in connection with the April 7, attack. Manipur Home Minister K. Govindas Konthoujam confirmed that the outfit, which is not a signatory to the SoO agreement, was involved in the incident.
The evolving security situation is also shaped by incidents of coercion and intimidation targeting civilians. On March 11, 2026, at least 20 Naga civilians were abducted by suspected Kuki militants in Shangkai village in the Ukhrul District and released only after intervention by civil society organisations and appeals by political authorities, including Chief Minister Yumnam Khemchand Singh.
Additionally, sporadic but coordinated armed engagements continue to occur across multiple locations. On March 19, 2026, gunfights were reported from Sirarakhong village, Lungter Hill Range and Mongkot Chepu village in the Ukhrul District, suggesting a coordinated attempt by suspected Kuki militants to assert territorial control, which was resisted by local village volunteers. While no casualties were reported, the scale and spread of the firing indicate the potential for rapid escalation.
Insurgent activity is not limited to tribal formations, but also includes actions by valley-based outfits. On April 4, 2026, the Kangleipak Communist Party–Military Council Progressive (KCP-MCP) claimed responsibility for a bomb blast at Manipur University in Imphal West District, describing it as a warning against alleged corruption. Meanwhile, on March 18, 2026, NIA filed a chargesheet against three cadres of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in connection with a September 2025 ambush that killed two Assam Rifles personnel, highlighting the continuing operational presence of Meitei insurgent groups.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), 16 persons, including eight militants, seven civilians and one SF trooper, have already been killed in seven insurgency-related incidents in Manipur in 2026 (Data till April 19, 2026). While this is well below the total of 58 fatalities recorded through 2025 and 87 through 2024, the nature of recent incidents indicates increasing brutality, the targeting of civilians, and the use of heavier weaponry. Since the outbreak of ethnic violence in May 2023, Manipur has recorded a cumulative total of at least 314 insurgency-linked fatalities in 140 separate incidents, including 127 civilians, 160 terrorists, 26 SF personnel and one fatality in the not-specified (NS) category.
The broader context of these developments reflects structural fragility in Manipur. Despite the restoration of an elected government under Chief Minister Yumnam Khemchand Singh in February 2026, following a year of President’s Rule, the underlying drivers of conflict – including contested land rights, ethnic polarisation, and competing territorial claims – remain unresolved. The persistence of armed groups, both within and outside the SoO framework, further complicates the security environment.
Cross-border dynamics continue to play a critical role. Militant groups operating along the Indo-Myanmar border exploit porous terrain and limited state presence to establish bases, conduct training, and launch attacks. Clashes involving groups such as KNA-B and NSCN-IM demonstrate the fluidity of alliances and rivalries, while the availability of sophisticated weapons suggests sustained access to transnational supply networks.
Government responses have combined enforcement, investigation and containment measures. The deployment of additional SF personnel, expansion of combing operations, and increased reliance on agencies such as the NIA, indicate a focus on immediate stabilisation. However, allegations of collusion between SFs and specific armed groups, as raised by NSCN-IM, highlight the challenges of maintaining neutrality and credibility in a highly polarised environment.
At the same time, the continued enforcement of extraordinary legal measures, including the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA) in large parts of the State, underscores the Centre’s assessment that the security situation remains abnormal. While selective relaxations have been introduced in parts of the Imphal Valley, hill districts and border areas continue to witness high levels of militarisation.
The recent surge in violence across Manipur marks a dangerous escalation in an already fragile security environment. The targeting of civilians, intensifying inter-group clashes, and use of heavy weaponry reflect a shift toward more lethal and unpredictable conflict dynamics. Simultaneously, rising mistrust among ethnic groups, coupled with the involvement of armed civilian actors, risks deepening polarisation on the ground. Despite ongoing security operations, the persistence of cross-border linkages and unresolved structural grievances continues to fuel instability. Unless credible political dialogue and confidence-building measures are prioritised, the current trajectory suggests that tensions may further intensify in the coming months.
