The Horn Of Africa States: The Untapped Natural Resources Of The Region – OpEd

As I write on the politics and economies of the region, I have on several occasions been asked to present what actual resources are available in the region and estimates thereof, if and when available. It is the story of this article – the untapped resources of the region.

The Horn of Africa States region is extremely resource-rich both human and material, but these resources are vastly underdeveloped. We will start with the human element, which consists of the populations of the four countries of Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti, the four countries which form the region. Some add Sudan but for the purpose of this piece, we shall limit ourselves to these four countries.

The population of the region is about 170 million with Ethiopia at 130 million, Somalia at 32 million, Eritrea at 6 million and Djibouti at 1.5 million. The average median age of this population is twenty years, and of course they have many years of working life ahead of them. It is a major source of both labor and market.

With respect to material untapped resources, oil and gas is often discussed. These are said to be present in the region in large quantities, although they remain mostly untapped. We present hereunder a brief review of these resources.

In Somalia, it is reported to have potential gas reserves of 6 billion cubic meters and over 30 billion barrels of oil. Broader estimates suggest that the country holds up to 110 billion barrels in combined offshore and onshore reserves of both oil and gas reserves. Ethiopia is reported to hold 272 billion cubic meters of gas in the Somali State of Ethiopia and some 2 billion barrels of oil. There are reports of shale oil presence on the border between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

The countries of the region are reported to have deposits of gold, copper, zinc, silver, nickel, cobalt, iron ore, lead, tin, rare earths, lithium brines, uranium, titanium, molybdenum, tantalum, niobium and others. There are no estimates of the quantities of these minerals in the region. The region is also rich in gemstones and other industrial minerals. These include emeralds, rubies, garnets, mica, granite, limestone, gypsum, potash, sulphur. Despite the availability of all these, only gold, zircon, fluorspar, and tantalum are reported to be under active but limited extraction.

The region contains major aquifers with groundwater volumes estimated to be in the millions of square kilometers. They are in the Somali basins and in the Ethio-Djibouti border zones. The region enjoys a 4,700 km of coastline along the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. If properly developed local fisheries can catch, it is often reported, up to 1.24 million tonnes per year valued at US$ 3.1 trillion. Currently, however, local fisheries catch 40 to 50k  tonnes per year. Illegal fishing and foreign fleets take  away some 250k tonnes per year.

The region has massive and untapped renewable energy resources in the form of geothermal, solar, wind, and hydropower potential. The region is said to rank second in Africa for theoretical solar and wind capacity energies.

The region is mainly supported by its agriculture, mostly subsistence. Agricultural production include indigenous grains like teff and livestock like camels, sheep and goats, cattle and chicken. There is a massive under investment in this sector and it is often subjected to massive climate stresses, which limit its commercial potential.

The region is rich in resources, but it has major challenges, which include among other insecurities, weak infrastructures, limited investments and environmental and social issues complicated by regulatory/political instabilities. Nevertheless, the region currently enjoys port investments from Arab Gulf States, mostly the UAE and Turkish involvement in oil and gas exploration, mostly offshore Somalia

The bottom line is that the Horn of Africa States region is a frontier of untapped natural wealth from fossil fuels to renewable energy, minerals and water with its marine and agricultural sectors also holding massive underutilized and underinvested potential. Many of these resources are quantified to some extent such as Somalia’s oil and gas reserves. But many other resources are poorly assessed or are at initial exploration stages.

The region, indeed, needs to stabilize, if it has to unlock these high value resources and assets. They will need massive investments, infrastructure and sound governance, if it has to attract global and other regional investors