Pakistan Amidst An Unprecedented Crisis – OpEd

Pakistan has been facing inveterate socio-political and economic crises since its independence. The nascent state right after its inception lost its pioneer leaders Muhammad Ali Jinnah and Liaquat Ali Khan. A state with a fragile economy and crumbling socio-political fabric then dwelled into an incessant state of crisis where chaos, uncertainty, instability, lack of continuity, deteriorated economy, and crumbling governance fabric became the defining characteristic of the state.

Whether it was a political elite, religious clergy, military or judicial establishment, every institution of the state remained at loggerheads with one another resulting in the delayed constitution-making process. Resultantly, Pakistan took anomalously long nine years to promulgate its first constitution in 1956. What made the situation more troublesome was that within next two years in 1958 the first constitution was abrogated and it took four additional years to enforce the new constitution.

The incessant political turmoil and the resultant socio-political and economic disparity among the different regions resulted in the break of up of one arm of Pakistan (East Pakistan) in 1971. While every nation passes through the phases of crisis; what makes Pakistan different is the interminable nature of crises where one crisis begets another. 

Another Episode of Economic Crisis

The most notable rhetoric that state representatives have been disseminating throughout history is that Pakistan is going through critical time. After 75 years of its independence, same magniloquence is still prevalent in Pakistan. Although Pakistan has witnessed mammoth crises in its history, the contemporary crisis is unprecedented in terms of its nature and intensity. The contemporary Pakistan is going through the storm of economic, social, political, constitutional, and security predicament.

To begin with, economic crisis of Pakistan has unfolded again, but unlike the past, the intensity of current economic downturn signifies that default seems inevitable. The crumbled economy with nose-diving foreign exchange reserves (around $4 USD) and depreciating currency indicates that the economy is merely surviving not thriving. Furthermore, all the three credit rating agencies have downgraded Pakistan’s rating amid hovering balance of payment crisis. What adds insult to injury is that Pakistan has not yet succeeded in concluding a staff level agreement with International Monetary fund thereby diminishing the chances of external financing. If IMF does not dole out the due package in the immediate run, there are prospects of default as Pakistan would not be able to sustain the mounting repayments pressure.

The current inflation rate at astonishing 36.4% has already diminished the purchasing power of millions of people pushing them further below the poverty line. Although Pakistan has been facing economic crisis throughout history, this time external geo-political atmosphere is not in its favor thereby reducing the prospects of any external financing by multilateral agencies and friendly states that have been bailing it out in past. 

Political Polarisation and Institutional Clashes

Furthermore, what is more problematic in contemporary times for Pakistan besides economic meltdown is the nature and intensity of political crisis that it is going through. Never in the history have Pakistan’s political parties polarised to such an extent that they leave no stone unturned in their attempt to wipe each other out from political landscape.

The political dissent has taken the form of personalized animosity where each side tries to demean the other by uttering out derogatory remarks. The incessant diatribe has replaced the culture of polite dissent and the entire focus is on uttering mudslinging instead of addressing public issues. This culture of bitter animosity with recurring acrimonious exchanges has become the new norm of politics in Pakistan.

What is more exasperating is that the ongoing tussle has reached to such an extent that prospects of any political consensus primarily between Pakistan Tehreek-e- Insaf and Pakistan Democratic Movement seem will-o’-the-wisp. This induced hyper-polarization and the resultant anarchy has left no institution unperturbed. Those caught in the throes of political victimization yesterday have become the perpetrators of the same heinous crime today, as the PTI leadership facing terrorism and sedition charges under the PDM lead coalition government. Furthermore, naysayers of past have become gargantuan protagonist of establishment at present. 

The cost of staying in opposition has become immensely high as evident from the cases by incumbent regimes against rivals from past a few years. The story does not end here; the persistent internal divide between political parties has now encompassed judiciary, bureaucracy and military establishment. Furthermore, institutions are at daggers drawn where parliament incessantly undermining the verdicts of Supreme Court of Pakistan (SCP) vis-à-vis elections in Punjab province.

The recent arrest of Mr. Khan from the premises of Islamabad High Court infuriated his supporters as a result massive public outburst witnessed across the country where people tried to dismantle corps commander house Lahore, and General Headquarters (GHQ) Rawalpindi.  By denying the suffrage, the cornerstone of modern democracy, to its people, the incumbent government is establishing such precedent which in years to come would serve the purpose of the powers that be- the establishment. This hyper-polarisation and institutional fragmentation make democratic consolidation in hybrid regime further remote, as it is eroding public trust from political institutions. Moreover, the ongoing game of throne has seriously undermined the already fragile fabric of democracy in Pakistan. 

Rising Terrorism 

Another problematic aspect is the deteriorating security situation of Pakistan in the aftermath of Taliban’s take over in Afghanistan. Since 2021, according to Pakistan Institute of Parliamentary Studies (PIPS), paramount increase in terrorist attacks across Pakistan took toll on hundreds of lives, the most despicable being the attack on mosque in Police Lines Peshawar on 30 January 2023.

According to the report of PIPS, Pakistan witnessed 262 terror attacks in 2022, which constituted 27% increase from 2021. In January 2023 alone more than 40 militant attacks took place in Pakistan taking lives of more than 120 people.  This indicates that with the rise of Taliban in Afghanistan, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has also resurged; as a result, Pakistan’s security situation is deteriorating at an alarming rate. This has added insult to injury as the country is facing current menace of terrorism amidst an unprecedented politico-economic crisis. 

Way Out

In the light of above discussion it is deduced that the contemporary crisis in unprecedented in its essence, as Pakistan is stranded in the turmoil of simultaneous politico-economic and security crisis. This is a crisis like no other and it requires the whole-of-nation approach to get out of this quagmire. It is a high time that all stakeholders put their personal interests and egos aside and put their heads together for mutually acceptable solution. Without immediate elections and the resultant government backed by massive public mandate, extricating Pakistan from this quagmire would be a distant dream.

Danish Hanif is an emerging IR scholar currently working as a Research Associate at South Asian Storage Stability Institute Islamabad.