Taiwan’s Future Is Uncertain Under President Trump – OpEd

The Chinese government protested recently the latest US announcements of military sales and assistance to Taiwan, warning the United States that it is “playing with fire,” the Associated Press news agency reported.

U.S. President Joe Biden authorized the provision of up to US$$571 million in Defense Department material and services and in military education and training for Taiwan. Separately, the Defense Department said that $295 million in military sales had been approved.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry statement urged the U.S. to stop arming Taiwan and stop what it called “dangerous moves that undermine peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”

Taiwan is a democratic island of 23 million people that the Chinese government claims as its territory and says must come under its control. 

The $571 million in military assistance comes on top of Biden’s authorization of $567 million for the same purposes in late September. The military sales include $265 million for about 300 tactical radio systems and $30 million for 16 gun mounts.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry statement released on Dec. 22 urged the U.S. to stop arming Taiwan and cease what it called “dangerous moves that undermine peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”

The latest U.S. military package was announced after China’s largest maritime drills around Taiwan since 1996, with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) deploying more than 90 warships to adjacent waters stretching from the East China Sea to the Taiwan Straits and South China Sea.

“Taiwan and the United States will continue to cooperate closely on security issues to maintain peace, stability and the status quo across the Taiwan Strait,” the Asia Times website reported quoting a Taiwan’s foreign ministry’s statement as saying. 

Due to the sensitivity of the issue, Taipei declined to provide details on the “content” of the assistance “based on the tacit agreement between Taiwan and the United States.”

Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping has reportedly instructed the PLA to be in a position to conduct a successful invasion of Taiwan by 2027, if necessary.

That threat could grow in significance if Trump follows through on his promised 60 percent tariffs on all Chinese goods, a move that would add pressure to China’s already wobbly economy and potentially the ruling Communist Party.  

If anything, China is determined to create a “world-class” military that can rival America’s by 2049. With an estimated annual defense budget of $450 billion, China is in a strong position to concentrate its increasingly robust military capabilities in its own backyard, i.e., the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.

Already in possession of the world’s largest navy, with as many as 395 battleforce ships to come on steam next year, China is also deploying  DF-27 anti-ship ballistic missiles that could significantly threaten America’s military presence in the Western Pacific, including the strategic outpost of Guam.  

Although Washington adheres to a “one China” policy, namely recognizing Beijing as the diplomatic representative of the so-called “Greater China”, it has the obligation to help prevent any forcible takeover of the self-ruling island nation under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act.

On multiple occasions, Biden has vowed to come to Taiwan’s defense in the event of a conflict with China, even if the two sides no longer have a mutual defense pact.

“There are, however, certain concerns that the incoming Donald Trump administration will be less committed to Taiwan’s defense and may even entertain a potential grand bargain with China at the expense of Taiwan’s self-proclaimed sovereignty and regional partners’ security,” Richard Javad Heydarian, a research scholar, wrote in the Asia Times recently.

Key U.S. allies Japan and the Philippines have accordingly doubled down on their own defense cooperation by ratifying a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) which would facilitate greater military interoperability and enhance a joint response to any major contingency in the region.

While hoping for continuity in America’s China policy, key regional players are hedging their bets ahead of a potentially disruptive second Trump presidency.

Far from a passive actor, Taiwan is preparing for all eventualities. After ratifying a record $20.2 billion defense budget in August, Taiwan is also ramping up its imports of advanced American weapons systems.

This month, Taiwan received the first batch of 38 M1A2T Abrams tanks, underscoring its preparation for a possible all-out of war, including attrition warfare, in the near future.

The new American-made tanks were transported to the Armor Training Command in Hsinchu County southwest of Taipei in mid-December. For next year, Taiwan is planning to allocate NTD70.6 billion ($2.2 billion) for the acquisition of new U.S.-made platforms.

Atop Taiwan’s shopping list, according to a proposal submitted by Taiwan’s legislature, are 100 Harpoon land-based missile systems, 66 F-16V fighter jets, 29 HIMARS rocket systems and a total of 108 M1A2T Abrams tanks.

A second Trump presidency, however, introduces new uncertainties to U.S. support for that strategy. Trump has made it clear that he prefers allies to shoulder more of their own defense needs and pay more for U.S. “protection.”

In fairness, Trump’s first term is fondly remembered in Taipei, a period that saw a historic phone call between then-Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and Trump, a rapid expansion in high-level contacts and joint visits, and Taipei’s purchase of $18 billion worth of U.S. weapons, $4 billion more than the combined two terms of the Obama administration.

Amid rising public discontent in America over massive financing of the Ukraine war, Trump is expected to adopt a more “isolationist” stance, especially since he will no longer be restrained by veteran and more multilateralist generals.

In an interview earlier this year, Trump said he would “never say” if America is committed to defending Taiwan and emphasized his “good relationship” with Chinese President Xi. “I never say because I have to negotiate things [with China], right?” Trump said in an interview with NBC website’s Meet the Press host Kristen Welker.

Taiwan is reportedly wary of the influence of key Trump advisors such as billionaire Elon Musk, who has significant business interests in China and has described Taiwan as an “integral part of China”, parroting Beijing’s line. 

The incoming Trump 2.0 administration’s nomination of China hawks such as Marco Rubio, Mike Waltz and Elbridge Colby for senior leadership positions would seemingly bode well for Taiwan.  

“First, Trump does not accept the bipartisan internationalist approach that has dominated postwar U.S. foreign policy-making. Allowing Taiwan to choose its own international political destiny has long been part of U.S. grand strategy,” Denny Roy, a scholar, wrote in the Asia Times.

Taiwan’s future looks like very uncertain with Trump’s approach to Taiwan.