ISSN 2330-717X

Big Power Rivalry In The Gulf Requires A US Strategy Rethink – Analysis

By

As French, Pakistani and other leaders seek to engineer a meeting between the US and Iranian presidents on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, big power rivalry could rack up tension in the waters of the Gulf and the Indian Ocean.

With prospects for a face-to-face encounter between presidents Donald J. Trump and Hassan Rouhani slim at best, attention is likely to focus on beefing up the security of key Saudi oil facilities after drone and missile attacks, blamed by the kingdom and the United States on Iran, and identifying an appropriate response that minimizes the risk of a full-fledged military confrontation.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, days after the attacks severely damaged oil installations, joined a US-led coalition to secure the Middle East’s waterways. Earlier, Britain, Bahrain and Australia pledged to participate in the coalition.

Japan declined to join but said it was considering sending its Maritime Self-Defense Force (SDF) on information-gathering missions in the region. It said it would coordinate with the US-led coalition and would include the Strait of Hormuz in its operations if Iran agreed. Japan has unsuccessfully sought to mediate between the United States and Iran.

The US Defense Department, meanwhile, in response to a request from Saudi Arabia and the UAE and in an effort to reassure Gulf allies said last week that it was sending an unspecified number of troops and equipment to the two countries to bolster their defences.

Iranian Brigadier General Ghadir Nezami, head of international and diplomatic affairs of his country’s armed forces, raised the stakes by saying that the Iranian navy would be holding joint exercises with Russia and China in the Indian Ocean and the Sea of Oman.

General Nezami, who is believed to have recently accompanied chairman of the Iranian Joint Chiefs of Staff Major General Mohammad Baqeri on a visit to China, gave no date for the exercises. Chinese and Russian media have yet to report the planned exercise while spokesmen in the two countries declined to confirm or deny the Iranian announcement.

Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Hossein Khanzadi said in July that the Russian and Iranian navies would be conducting a joint exercise within a matter of months to boost military cooperation.

Russian and Chinese hesitancy to confirm the exercise may be designed to avoid hiking tensions as efforts at the United Nations to mediate between the United States and Iran proceed.

Moreover, Russian president Vladimir Putin is likely to want to avoid a shadow being cast over his planned visit to Saudi Arabia in October. Mr. Putin has urged the kingdom to proceed with the acquisition of Russia’s S-400 anti-missile system that was agreed in principle two years ago.

Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov met this week with his Saudi counterpart Ibrahim Assaf at the United Nations to discuss the visit.

Russia and China may also not want to undermine a Chinese-backed Russian proposal for a collective security agreement in the Gulf that would replace the US defence umbrella at a time that Saudi Arabia, uncertain about American reliability, may reach out to other countries for support in protecting its oil assets.

South Korea’s Yonhap news agency last week reported that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had requested South Korean assistance in the strengthening of the kingdom’s air defense system.

Gulf concern about US reliability, dating back to US president Barak Obama’s negotiation of an international nuclear agreement with Iran and reinforced by Mr. Trump’s transactional response to the recent attacks on Saudi oil fields, leaves the Saudis and the Americans with no good choices.

Middle East scholar and former advisor to the US Defence Department Bilal Y. Saab argues, against the backdrop of a widespread feeling in Gulf states that the United States is gradually reducing its commitment to their defense as Washington focuses on Asia and the Indo-Pacific, that the United States in particular is caught in a Catch-22.

Its options of reducing commitment without surrendering its umbilical defense cord and making way for America’s rivals are limited.

Mr. Saab believes that the United States should focus its security cooperation less single-mindedly on arms sales and more on building the Gulf states’ institutional national defense infrastructure. Failure to do so, would risk regional tensions repeatedly spiralling out of control and ultimately prevent a gradual US drawdown.

The problem is, in Mr. Saab’s words, that what the United States should be doing to “responsibly reduce its security burden and footprint in the region” while safeguarding opportunities for lucrative arms sales would likely reinforce perceptions of America as unreliable and willing to sacrifice its friends – a perception that dates from the 2011 popular Arab revolts when Washington ultimately backed the toppling of Egyptian president and US ally Hosni Mubarak.

Mr. Saad is the first person to admit that his proposition may be pie in the sky.

“It would mean building and empowering institutions that have the guns, and thus the ability, to conduct coups. Only a foolish Arab autocrat would be interested in that. It would also mean liberalizing or professionalizing national-security ministries and intelligence agencies. Few Arab leaders would voluntarily undermine the favourable clientelistic networks that are run by their governments. In short, defense reform requires political reform,” he says.

Moreover, institution building would bring the different threat perceptions of the Gulf states and the US into sharp relief and force Gulf states to rethink their arms acquisition policies and grant the United States access to their jealousy guarded most secret data and programs.

Said Mr. Saab: “There is no shortage of problems on the US end or on its partners’ end when it comes to security cooperation. But it will be impossible to address any of those without making a total switch on how the United States thinks about security cooperation.”

That would require a US president who thinks in strategic rather than transactional terms.

James M. Dorsey

James M. Dorsey

James M. Dorsey is a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore and the author of the blog, The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer.

2 thoughts on “Big Power Rivalry In The Gulf Requires A US Strategy Rethink – Analysis

  • Avatar
    September 28, 2019 at 10:23 am
    Permalink

    The USA has no place in the Gulf. The USA should the old mentality and thinking that God allows them to own the world as the best democracy in the world. The USA should pay attention to its national security as other countries do. US interjects itself in everything some politicians like to play role.
    The USA should leave the Gulf to all countries in the region to secure the waterway and trade. These countries have militaries and armies that ca get the job done better than US intervention.
    US intervention is always to create divisions and military conflicts to sell weapons to make more profits at the expense of all people blood. The USA always changes issues to conlicts and its security.. Even if a person likes to travel the US puts interjects itself. For the USA all people who do not like to submit to the imperialist power are terrorists and criminals. The world cannot work under these ideas.
    Finally, the US policy makers are still have the mentality of slavery and the aim of enslaving the world, particularly the small countries. The USA is milking all wealth, oil, banks, of the Gulf States. Nothing will be left to the people to survive.

    Reply
  • Avatar
    September 28, 2019 at 11:25 am
    Permalink

    I have to take issue with Mr. Mouhammad’s perspective on the U.S. place in the world. As a Canadian, I am certainly not an American apologist, but as someone with 50 years experience in witnessing geostrategic events as a military officer, writer and university professor, I have to point to America’s many contributions to global security. Beginning with the Barbary Wars (1801-1805 and 1815), the U.S. Navy defeated the Barbary pirates and made its first contribution to freedom of maritime navigation. U.S. involvement in both world wars subverted German intentions to expand its authority into neighbouring nation-states. During the Second World War, both Canada and the United States led the Battle of the Atlantic (September 1939 to May 1945) and neutralized the German submarine threat to Allied convoys. The U.S. military led the effort to deny North Korea control over the entire Korean peninsula in the conflict (1950-1953). Current operations of the U.S. Navy include the guarantees of freedom on navigation on the ocean commons, without which the global oceans would resemble a game of wei chi.
    I have studied U.S. foreign and defence policy from 1776 to present day. U.S. foreign policy fluctuates with the constant flow of political and partisan forces within the U.S. The U.S. two-party political structure contending for control of the Congress, the Senate and the White House have created interesting and challenging circumstances for U.S. foreign policy. But I would not welcome U.S. withdrawal from global affairs, leaving free navigation on the ocean commons to nation-state players which are interested in fostering their own strategic, economic and hegemonic interests.

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.