In Ukraine, ‘General Winter’ Working Against Russian Invaders – OpEd
By Paul Goble
Because of their own history in which invaders have often been defeated less by force of arms than because of Russia’s brutally cold weather, many in Russia and elsewhere confidently believe that General Winter will be on their side in Ukraine even though there, Russian forces are the invader rather than the defender, Leonid Nevzlin says.
“Winter cold has more than once rescued the Russian army in its fight against invaders,” the Israel-based Russian opposition politician and commentator says; and “in the current war, the Kremlin is also counting on the weather” to undercut Ukrainian popular support for the war and force the Ukrainian military to retreat (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=638364B7AD119).
“But today, when Russia is the aggressor, Nevzlin says, Putin and his own invading army “may fall into the same trap Napoleon or the Wehrmacht did,” as various foreign experts like those at Washington’s Institute for the Study of War and the British defense ministry have already noted.
Russian soldiers are already having to buy their own food and sometimes don’t have hot meals for several days at a time. Moscow is relying on Iran not only for drones but for uniforms as well. Unfortunately, for the soldiers and for Moscow, “Iranian uniforms are unlikely to help them” when temperatures fall well below zero and stay there for days.
At the end of last winter, Nevzlin points out, the Russian military in its effort to advance on Kyiv suffered serious mechanical failures as a result of both poor manufacturing and insufficient insulation in its tanks and armored vehicles. But despite that, Moscow hasn’t drawn the necessary conclusions and taken steps to correct that problem.
And what that means is this, the commentator says: No matter how much the Kremlin frightens Ukraine and the whole of Europe with cold, Moscow has more reason to be afraid of it than either of the others. Europe will manage and “Ukraine does not intend to retreat.” As a result, it is the Russian army that “may not hold out until spring.”
