Ending The Ukraine War Without Ending The Ukraine – OpEd
Forever Wars is a trope about America’s foreign adventures. The truth is, some do finish.
Vietnam is the shining example, and Afghanistan saw us exit tail between legs.
We did evacuate Lebanon, but came back to the Middle East after 911 and continue to do nothing really intelligent or useful in Iraq or Syria.
There appears to be a glimmer of reality in Ukraine Proxy War. Mind, it is a glimmer, but maybe it can grow into a bright light and a forever war may end.
Trial balloons have gone up on western news sources. In November 3rd, on NBC News an article appeared with the headline, U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say.
Needless to say, recent events have complicated matters. The Gaza/Israel conflict means that Ukraine, as a grand cause, takes second place.
Of course, broaching the topic of peace negotiations does not mean the US and NATO are talking about a solution that ends up bringing a permanent peace that everyone can live happily ever after with.
For US/NATO it probably means, can we set up a process to put this on hold while we deal with something else?
The people of Ukraine have long been ill used and whatever dog and pony show that is proposed will also probably continue that.
There is also the question of the Russians. You remember them. That’s the country just to the east that has been constantly characterized in the western media as the fount of all evil.
How could such an entity be trusted to negotiate with.
Then again, as they’ve been slandered so, why would they consider the West as worthy of trust?
What to do?
For the Ukrainians, This war has been a long struggle, having recently culminated in a failed counter-offensive. That, however is only part of it.
The Ukrainians have already been defeated by their so-called allies, at least financially.
Blackrock, now in the process of buying up single family homes to rent out and kill the homeowner dreams of lumpen America wants to rebuild Ukraine. This is not out of the goodness of Blackrock’s heart, but to own and exploit the country postwar.
When publications as politically different as Jacobin and The American Conservative have caught this scam, it is hard to escape that the people of the Ukraine may need to take notice.
There are probably no good outcomes possible for The Ukraine. but the worst possible would be to win.
As victory eventuates, The Ukraine becomes a wholly owned subsidiary of Blackrock and others. They would be enmeshed in debts that they will never be able to pay off.
As if that is not enough,
Now, as noted in antiwar.com on last Valentine’s Day, “Bankers from JP Morgan Chase visited Ukraine last week and signed a memorandum of understanding with President Volodymyr Zelensky and plan to help raise private capital for a new fund for Ukraine’s reconstruction.”
“Last month, Zelensky said American corporations would find “big business” in Ukraine.”
One might suggest that the people of The Ukraine hold on to their wallets, but by now, they’re probably empty, so whatever.
After the war, those amber waves of grain that gave The Ukraine the nickname, “The Breadbasket of Europe.” will not belong to the Ukraine.
In fact, if the miracle of a Ukrainian victory were to eventuate, it would still be a defeat as the country would be in hock to foreign bankers and businesses.
Is there anything that can be done to stop the disaster?
Maybe.
Maybe The Ukraine would be well served if there were, well, maybe not a counter-revolution, but a restoration.
As the Maidan coup has been discussed ad nauseum elsewhere, its legality was, suffice it to say, suspect.
Some have defended it as righteous, as the government of the day was considered corrupt. The overthrown president, however was elected legally, and rioted out with the complicity of the US.
There were elections afterward, but no one unacceptable to US/NATO was going to be allowed to win.
Thus, as legitimacy can be questioned, there is a possibility of restoring the ancien regime or at least the most recent ancien regime.
Supposedly, there is dissension in some of the ranks of the dwindling Ukrainian army. This is an opportunity for the leadership to do something that is wise.
The Ukrainian people would be well served if all the senior members of army and government see the writing on the wall and help President Zelensky to leave office in the kindest, gentlest way and upon his departure, declare that all the foreign deals of the usurper regime null and void.
Does that mean bringing back Viktor Yanukovych, the president who had been rioted out of office? As he abandoned his post, no one need look for him.
It is at this point negotiations need to be started.
But how can anyone contemplate sitting down with the current Russian government to make peace.
The head of that state, Vladimir Putin may not hold the record for being Godwinned*, but he has been characterized as the bogeyman du jour in the media all too often.
The question is, what other choice is there?
Actually, Ukraine has negotiated with the Russkies and peace was just about agreed when the US and UK pulled the rug out from under the agreement.
Foreign Policy columnist Ted Snider explained it at Antiwar.com and the Libertarian Institute.
Early in the war, Russia and Ukraine held negotiations in Istanbul and were on the verge of agreeing when pressure from the US kept the Ukrainians from making peace.
Had they taken the deal, they would have kept the areas in the east now occupied by Russia, but would have had to settle for neutrality and no NATO membership. They were willing.
Snider wrote about the West’s obstruction attested to by former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder, then Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett as well as Turkish officials, former Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and Numan Kurtulmus, the deputy chairman of Erdogan’s ruling party.
John Mearsheimer has basically the same thought on his substack.
Indeed, the proper question is not can Ukraine trust Russia, but the opposite.
That was then, this is now.
Actually, Putin has shown much forbearance through all that has gone before as noted in Stephen Bryen’s substack, Weapons and Strategy, in a piece titled Lloyd Austin’s Threat to Congress:The Republicans Walked Out of a Secret Briefing.
Secretary Austin projected Russia was about to do everything diabolical it could once the Ukes were done. According to Bryen, “There is little sign that Russia intends any expansion in Eastern Europe or the Baltic States and virtually no intelligence of any kind supporting the Austin invasion thesis. If there was any concrete intelligence you can safely bet the Biden administration would let Congress know (especially when they have their hands out for more money for the war).”
Bryen’s analysis makes sense.
Therefore, the wisest course for the people of Ukraine is to dismiss any and all US and NATO officials, make the aforementioned decree that all economic deals with the West are invalid, and open negotiations immediately.
Yeah, you lost the war, but if you have a peace with all the rigged deals in place, that will be infinitely worse.
Yeah, you lose Crimea and the Donbas, but if you keep the rest and avoid foreign ownership, that is far better than being in hock to vultures, who at best, will let you negotiate maybe a ceasefire with no real war’s end, but truce until the next war installment.
As my obstreperous youth receded, I began to realize some valuable lessons. One of the best was knowing when to stop.
It is a lesson that would serve the Ukraine well.
Heck, the Land of the Free and Home of the Brave might want to take that hint.
*Godwin’s law, also known as Godwin’s rule of Hitler analogies, is a statement maintaining that if any online discussion continues long enough, someone will almost certainly compare someone else to Hitler. Typically, the comment likens someone to Hitler or calls that person a Nazi, and the individual described in that way is often a participant in the discussion. The law is thought to apply to conversations about any conceivable topic.