Croatia’s Outspoken Milanovic Tipped To Win Second Presidential Term – Analysis

By Vuk Tesija

Zoran Milanovic is the frontrunner in Croatia’s presidential election on Sunday but will likely face a run-off against the governing party’s candidate to secure a second term as head of state.

Milanovic, 58, is polling at almost 39 per cent, two percentage points more than a month ago and well ahead of Dragan Primorac of the governing Croatian Democratic Union, HDZ, on almost 23 per cent.

The incumbent’s first five-year term was marked by frequent and often fiery criticism of the HDZ-led government of Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic, as well as a string of controversial statements by Milanovic that seemed designed to appeal to the political right. He is backed by the opposition Social Democratic Party, SDP, which he led between 2007 and 2016.

Trailing behind Milanovic and Primorac are six other candidates, including independent Marija Selak Raspudic and Ivana Kekin, a party ally of Zagreb mayor Tomislav Tomasevic, who are both polling at around nine per cent.

Sunday’s vote is the third this year following a parliamentary election won by the HDZ in April and European elections in June; local elections are also due early next year.

Nada Zgrabljic Rotar, a former professor of journalism and communication studies at the University of Zagreb, said the campaign had been “lukewarm”.

“We should also keep in mind that people are tired of the elections and rhetoric that is similar and repeated,” Zgrabljic Rotar told BIRN.

That rhetoric frequently revolves around the issue of Croatian soldiers being deployed abroad as part of NATO operations, notably concerning Ukraine; immigration; the rights of Croats in neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina; and what conditions to set of Serbia in exchange for voting in favour of its accession to the European Union at some unknown point in the future.

In debates, Milanovic has taken a softer line than Primorac and some of the other candidates; he has ruled out sending the army to secure Croatia’s borders, deporting migrants, or setting any particularly radical conditions on Serbia.

Political analyst Jaroslav Pecnik said the incumbent is the clear frontrunner, but the HDZ “must not allow itself the catastrophe” of Primorac not making the run-off on January 12.

Observers are also watching closely how Kekin performs on behalf of Mozemo! [We Can!], the party that holds power in the capital, Zagreb. “Her participation should be seen as preparation and profiling for the local elections in May,” said Pecnik.

Milanovic the best orator

Primorac has taken a significantly tougher line than Milanovic on the key issues of the campaign.

On Croatia’s public broadcaster on Monday, the 59-year-old doctor said he would deport “every illegal migrant” on Croatian territory and condition Serbia’s EU accession on it declassifying Yugoslav People’s Army papers on the fall of Vukovar and the killing of wounded Croatian fighters and civilians taken from the city hospital in 1991.

He also ruled out sending Croatian soldiers to Ukraine, but criticised Milanovic’s opposition to the participation of two Croatian army officers in the NATO training of Ukrainian soldiers in Germany.

Zgrabljic Rotar, however, noted Primorac’s failure to make much of public concern over the state of the public health service, given his medical expertise. Primorac’s chances have possibly been hurt by a scandal involving his HDZ colleague Vili Beros, who was dismissed as health minister in November over allegations of graft in the procurement of medical equipment.

Most analysts agree that Milanovic is the best orator in the race.

“His style can sometimes be a bit over the top, but at least he has the ‘taste and smell’of a politician,” said Pecnik.

“He is not attacking anyone in the campaign for now because he doesn’t need to, because he is the favourite, and no one dares to touch him too much because they know he has a sharp tongue.”

Zgrabljic Rotar similarly cited Milanovic’s speaking skills.

“He has a rhetoric that is sometimes poetic, sometimes rough; he is a good speaker, which we don’t have many opportunities to hear,” she told BIRN.

“In general, our politicians don’t work hard enough on themselves. In politics, it is not enoughjust to be smart, you have to know how to speak.”

Second term the time for ‘decisive steps’

Pecnik said Milanovic should seize the opportunity offered by a second term to cement his legacy, with his “greatest potential” in the field of foreign policy.

“If he wants to be remembered in history – and I believe he is sufficiently narcissistic and ambitious to aspire to that – he must take decisive steps. The second term is the time for such actions,” Pecnik told BIRN.

“He should launch a series of initiatives aimed at Prime Minister Plenkovic and the government, putting them in a position where they are compelled to respond. Plenkovic may not need to accept these initiatives, but he cannot ignore them. If Milanovic achieves that, he will have accomplished a great deal.”

Pecnik said regional initiatives, involving Bosnia, Serbia and Montenegro, would be “crucial”.

“A balanced approach toward these countries is necessary, alongside a clear commitment to supporting their EU accession,” he said.“Of course, this does not depend solely on Milanovic but also on the government and these countries themselves. It’s essential to approach them as equals, demonstrating a willingness to help while maintaining clear criteria.”

Alluding to some of the most controversial of Milanovic’s public pronouncements, Pecnik said Milanovic should “move away from pandering to Tudjman’s politics and instead establish his own authentic policies”, a reference to Croatia’s first president, the nationalist Franjo Tudjman.

Political analyst Davor Gjenero said the only potential for surprise on Sunday is in possibility of Milanovic taking enough votes to win outright, a feat no one has managed since Tudjman. He would then be protected against ideas, aired now and then by some in the media, about trimming the powers of the presidency.

“In that case, everything that was said about limiting the powers of the president of the republic is hardly an option,” Gjenero said.