Time For Questions – OpEd

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Yevgeny Prigozhin’s march to Moscow was unexpected for many Western experts. Even those analysts, who had predicted a coup d’Etat in Russia, could not even imagine such a scenario. In their opinion, a coup attempt had to be organized by anti-war forces at home rather than such dogs of war as mercenaries of the PMC Wagner.

The head of the private military company Mr. Prigozhin for a long time was faithful Cerberus of Putin’s regime. Prigozhin’s forces demonstrated outstanding effectiveness in battle. The PMC leader had a long-term friendship with the master of the Kremlin. Wagner carried out the most sensitive missions. The company was armed at the expense of the Russian state budget. So how to explain what occurred?

We’ll get the answer to this question only some time afterwards if there is evidence of what was happening behind the scenes June 24 in Russia. This is no time for answers, this is time for questions.

How will it affect the further course of war? What will happen to the Russian authorities and regime? What should be the reaction of the other countries? Was it a failure of the Kremlin which had missed the threat or was it a success of the regime which had withstood the storm? Did NATO anticipate the rebellion in Russia? 

Similar questions were voiced repeatedly in different countries last week.

But why did nobody ask whether such a revolt could take place in Ukraine? Are the Ukrainian assault units, well-armed by the West, able to go against Kyiv or those who had supplied them with weapons? If not, why not? After all, abstracting from colorization of flags, the Ukrainian advanced units are affected by the same factors of the protracted conflict that affect the Russian ones.

Neil Karpenko

Neil Karpenko, PhD, Ukraine’s history and politics researcher residing in Toronto. Contributing author to Haaretz, The Hill Times and Morning Star

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