The Middle East Crisis And The World Order – OpEd
The world is witnessing a fundamental shift in global geopolitics, driven by recent trends and developments, such as the war in Gaza and Ukraine and the strategic rivalry between the United States and China. The threat of a full-scale clash between the West and its adversaries – namely China, Russia, and the radical segment of the Islamic world – looms large.
The ongoing crises, conflicts, and wars reveal how much the world has changed geopolitically in the past few years. The great power competition has regained its prominence in international affairs, and the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are deepening the global rifts. A new world order seems to be emerging from a profound geopolitical reconfiguration, which could be hastened by a potential war initiated by China to take over Taiwan.
In fact, the wars in Gaza and Ukraine increase the likelihood of a third war over Taiwan. It is uncertain whether Xi, the Chinese president, can resist the temptation to exploit the opportunity created by the US’s involvement on two fronts. For him, who has declared the unification of Taiwan with China a historical duty, the longer these conflicts drag on, the better. To grasp the wider implications of this war for the world order and security, we need to examine the geopolitical situation before the unexpected attack by Hamas on October 7.
Before the Hamas attack, the United States and its NATO allies were waging a proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. They wanted to help Ukraine reclaim the occupied lands, and weaken Moscow enough to prevent it from repeating such actions. However, the war was unsuccessful and Ukraine’s summer offensive failed to meet its objectives despite the extensive support of the West. The war reached a stalemate, and the military balance seemed to tilt slowly towards Moscow. Kyiv’s chances of recovering the lost territory by force or diplomacy were dwindling.
The United States was also busy implementing a policy of containing and balancing China in all parts of the world. This policy took various forms, such as forming coalitions and military-security alliances based on limited multilateralism with allies – AUKUS or I2U2 – or imposing restrictions on the transfer of advanced technologies in areas such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and so on, or reducing risks in economic relations. The effectiveness of these strategies has been disputed, especially on the feasibility of cutting off China’s access to advanced technologies.
The United States was seeking a creative way to exit the Middle East. The White House devised an exit plan and tried to prevent Beijing from filling the gap by creating a new balance of power in the region while reducing its own involvement and presence. This exit plan had two aspects: mediating the de-escalation process between Israel and Saudi Arabia and containing Iran.
The October 7 incident changed everything. Hamas’s surprise attack killed over 1,400 Israelis, and Israel’s excessive retaliation has caused more than 20,000 deaths in Gaza so far. How does this continuing tragedy affect the US’s foreign and security policy and the liberal international order?
Firstly, the war has shattered the US-led attempt to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, a policy that is now in ruins. The Palestinian issue has emerged as an indispensable factor in any resolution of the conflict, regardless of its outcome. Hamas has exposed the limits of American power and influence in the Middle East and beyond, despite the United States remaining the world’s strongest nation. The persistent inability or reluctance of Washington to curb Netanyahu’s excesses, the rising discrimination against Palestinians, the settler violence, and the judicial reform controversy within Israel all signal not restraint, but the US’s weakness.
Secondly, a Middle East war would hamper US efforts to shift its focus and resources from the Middle East to East Asia, and to maintain its support for Ukraine. Beijing’s leaders believe that the escalating tension in the Middle East and the US’s full backing of its regional ally – Israel – will inevitably distract the Biden administration from its policy of strategic containment of China. Moscow’s leaders think that the Gaza crisis will hasten the decline of US and Western support for Ukraine, and increase the prospects of a settlement and a deal on Russia’s terms.
The Gaza war has worsened the situation for the European Union, where far-right parties are on the rise. The Russian aggression on Ukraine, despite some minor tensions, had overall strengthened the unity of the European Union. But the Gaza war has revived the divisions among the Europeans, with some EU member states backing Israel unconditionally, and others showing more compassion for the Palestinians. These differences have reached the highest levels of the European Union – a stark contrast between Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, and Josep Borrell, the top diplomat of the European Union. About 800 EU staff have allegedly signed a letter condemning von der Leyen for being too pro-Israel. The longer the war lasts, the deeper these rifts will become.
The unpleasant consequences of the Gaza war are very welcome news for China and Russia. Beijing and Moscow see anything that diverts the United States from East Asia or Ukraine as favorable, especially when they can watch from the sidelines as the United States squanders its resources. The Middle East war also gives Xi and Putin the necessary rationale to advocate for a multipolar world order that challenges the unipolar order dominated by the US. To do this, they only need to point out that the US’s management and hegemony in the Middle East for the past 30 years have yielded nothing but the disastrous Iraq war, the rise of ISIS, the humanitarian crisis in Yemen, the chaos in Libya, and the collapse of the Oslo peace process. With the latest conflict in the Middle East, they can now add that the Hamas attack on October 7 shows that Washington is unable to protect even its closest allies from dreadful events.
The Middle East war and its consequences, along with the Ukraine crisis, reveal the fact that the liberal vision of a rules-based international order led by the United States has suffered another crushing setback due to the relative decline of its power and its numerous foreign policy failures. The ongoing and worsening crisis in the Middle East distracts the West and the United States from Russia and China; undermines the creative exit strategy – which enabled the United States to disengage from the Middle East and focus on the great power competition; and deepens the divisions and differences within and among the factions within the European Union. In a broad assessment, this is incompatible with the continuity and coherence of the order that is known as the liberal international order.
