ASEAN’s Tightrope: Balancing US And China – OpEd
The United States and China maintain a competitive relationship which transforms the Indo-Pacific region through strategic changes that affect Southeast Asian countries. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) stands at the centre of this geopolitical competition because it needs to choose between two powers to avoid becoming irrelevant.
ASEAN will achieve lasting value through its success in protecting its independence from outside control. The research shows ASEAN can defend its strategic freedom from U.S.-China competition through domestic unity growth and collective diplomatic action, which prevents the region from fragmenting. The organisation will observe passively when ASEAN member states fail to unite because upcoming rivalries will create new regional structures.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) faces an essential decision point currently. The United States has expanded its Southeast Asian influence through military alliances and freedom of navigation operations, and economic programs, including the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. China maintains strong economic ties with ASEAN through the Belt and Road Initiative and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership while expanding its military presence across the South China Sea. The two global powers actively compete for influence in Southeast Asia, which creates difficulties for ASEAN member states. The organisation faces a threat because member states follow different national interests, which could cause them to support one power heavily, thus weakening ASEAN’s unified position. The organisation needs to defend itself against external threats while maintaining its ability to self-govern and preserving its long-term value.
The upcoming period will bring multiple obstacles to overcome. The South China Sea continues to serve as a dangerous military hotspot in the region. The United States conducts naval operations to challenge Chinese control of disputed waters while China continues to expand its military presence in the South China Sea. ASEAN faces a difficult position because Vietnam and the Philippines back enhanced collective action, but Cambodia and Laos seek to avoid Chinese military conflicts. The existing disagreements between member states prevent ASEAN from creating a single unified position. The Minilateral groups Quad and AUKUS have created new challenges because these organisations use exclusive systems which prevent ASEAN from taking part in regional affairs. ASEAN will lose its leadership position in the region when it fails to demonstrate unity to external powers.
The economic relationships between ASEAN member states and major powers create substantial dependence on both China and the United States. The area depends on China as its main trading partner, while China invests money to build infrastructure and expand manufacturing operations. The economic dependence on China creates security risks because any disruption in supply chains or Chinese policy changes would negatively affect ASEAN economic stability. The United States provides technological assistance and security protection to ASEAN, but its market access remains inferior to China’s. The current economic situation makes it difficult for ASEAN to maintain equilibrium because the global supply chain has become more political.
ASEAN faces its most important challenge because of the internal disagreements that exist between its member states. The ASEAN decision-making system, based on consensus, creates difficulties for fast action because it needs all member states to agree. The different foreign policy approaches of Vietnam and the Philippines toward U.S. security guarantees match the Chinese alignment of Cambodia and Laos, while Indonesia and Singapore support neutral foreign policies. The different positions of ASEAN member states create obstacles for the organisation to develop unified positions regarding vital matters, including the South China Sea and digital governance. The absence of proper consensus-building systems in ASEAN will result in lost autonomy and credibility because it establishes conditions that could lead to potential fragmentation.
The non-interference principle, which guides ASEAN, restricts the organisation from taking collective action. The principle of non-interference has brought peace to ASEAN, but it restricts the organisation from implementing agreements or monitoring member state compliance. The absence of enforcement tools within ASEAN makes the organisation appear ineffective at dispute resolution, which external powers view as a sign of weakness. The organisation faces increased difficulties in addressing complex regional issues because its current structure does not support the necessary proactive measures for cybersecurity defence and climate change management, and supply chain protection.
ASEAN maintains various solutions which it can use to address its current situation. The organisation needs to achieve higher levels of unity as its main solution. ASEAN needs to create unified positions for vital matters while enhancing its decision-making framework to build credibility and defend against outside efforts to split the organisation. ASEAN should establish a unified position about the South China Sea through international law and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea to prove its ability to function as a unified bloc. ASEAN gains strength and emerges from its unified position, which enables the organisation to deal with external powers from a position of power instead of being forced to submit to their demands.
The organisation can build its resilience through multiple partnership development strategies. ASEAN should build stronger relationships with middle powers, including Japan and South Korea and India and Australia, and the European Union, to decrease its dependence on China and the United States while gaining access to new economic and technological partnerships. The organisation shows its commitment to creating an open regional framework through its economic diversification initiatives. The organisation needs to establish economic stability through improved trade and investment between member states and digital economy integration and supply chain protection to minimise external disruption risks. The measures will help ASEAN defend against external threats while maintaining its independence.
ASEAN needs to maintain its strategic independence through the prevention of internal conflicts from occurring. The United States and China will continue their rivalry, which will generate rising external pressures on ASEAN. The organisation should create an inclusive regional framework which promotes stability and economic growth for Southeast Asia instead of taking sides between the two powers. The organisation needs to achieve unity as its main priority to succeed in this endeavour. The organisation will become a mere observer of the rivalry when it lacks unity among its members. The organisation will achieve its goal of maintaining its central position and credibility through unity instead of observing the rivalry from the sidelines.
The organisation needs to present unity because it needs to protect its independence from external authority. The organisation needs to develop stronger mechanisms for achieving consensus because this will help ASEAN maintain its independence and credibility.
The views presented in this article belong to the author.
References
- Tan, E. R. L., & Lye, L. F. (2025). Assessing China’s call for “strategic autonomy” in Southeast Asia: Origins, objectives and outcomes. ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute.
- Milner, A. (2025, February 25). ASEAN adapts and advances as global politics shift. East Asia Forum.
- Direkudomsak, W. (2025, April 30). ASEAN geopolitical dynamics in a nutshell and economic implications. Krungsri Research Intelligence.
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