Two Wars, One Warning: Bangladesh Cannot Look Away – OpEd
The world is now seeing not one war, but two. As the sun rose over Tehran, smoke was rising from its skyline. The United States and Israel launched what Trump called “major combat operations”. This is a joint operation targeting Iran’s military infrastructure, missile launchers, and, pointedly, sites near the residence of top leaders. A few thousand kilometres to the east, bombs were already falling on Kabul. Pakistan had declared “open war” on Afghanistan, with its defence minister, Khawaja Asif, saying his country’s patience had finally run out. Afghanistan’s Taliban government, in turn, had launched large-scale offensive operations along the Durand Line. The fires of two simultaneous wars were burning. For many in the global north, these may feel like distant conflicts.
For Bangladesh, it stands at a peculiar and dangerous intersection. It is a country deeply embedded in the global economy through its garment sector, dependent on remittances from the Middle East, and linked to South Asian stability. When two of its closest neighbours go into open war, and when the most volatile region in the world escalates into a new chapter of conflict, Bangladesh does not have the luxury of geopolitical neutrality or non-alignment.
The Pakistan-Afghanistan War: A Neighbourhood on the Brink
The Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict did not arrive without warning. Border tensions have been simmering since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, with Islamabad repeatedly accusing Kabul of harbouring the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants responsible for a string of devastating attacks inside Pakistan, including a suicide bombing at a Shi’a mosque in Islamabad just weeks ago that killed 36 people. A Qatar-mediated ceasefire in October 2025 held for barely two months. By late February 2026, Pakistani airstrikes on Kabul, Kandahar, and Paktia and Taliban drone attacks on Pakistani cities, and a nuclear-armed state formally declaring open war on a neighbour.
What does this mean for South Asia? It means Pakistan is already staggering under economic distress and political turbulence. It is now committing military and financial resources to a full-scale war. It means the civilian infrastructure along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border is being shattered, sending yet another wave of displacement into a region already hosting millions of Afghan refugees. It means India, which Pakistan has long accused of backing anti-state militants, is watching from the east with a combination of strategic anxiety and opportunism. And it means the entire security architecture of South Asia is fragile and now in danger of unravelling.
Bangladesh must understand that a destabilised Pakistan is not an abstraction. Pakistani economic collapse would send tremors through the OIC bloc. It would complicate the already fraught Rohingya crisis diplomacy, in which Pakistani political support has mattered. The spillover of extremist ideology from a war-ravaged Pakistan-Afghanistan frontier is a threat that Dhaka cannot dismiss.
The Iran Conflict: Oil, Remittances, and the Cost of Everything
The US-Israel attack on Iran (in economic terms) is the more immediately consequential event for Bangladesh. Iran has retaliated. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil passes, is now in the shadow of active conflict. Even before today, oil markets had been volatile. There can be a significant spike in global oil prices, disruption to LNG supplies, and a ripple effect on the cost of goods that would be felt hardest by import-dependent countries like Bangladesh.
Bangladesh imports virtually all of its fuel. Its power sector, its transport, its industrial base and all are vulnerable to energy price shocks. The government has struggled for the past two years to manage inflation, subsidies, and foreign exchange pressures. A sustained Middle East conflict pushing oil above $120 or even $150 a barrel would not simply be uncomfortable; it would be a macroeconomic crisis. The taka, already under pressure, would face further stress. The cost of essential goods such as cooking oil and fertiliser would climb. And ordinary Bangladeshis, who have already borne the brunt of post-pandemic price pressures, would once again pay the price for wars they had not started.
Then there is the matter of remittances. Over 2.5 million Bangladeshis work in the Gulf states of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman. These workers sent home nearly $22 billion in remittances last year. This is a lifeline for millions of families and a critical source of foreign exchange for the national economy. A broader Middle East war, especially one threatening Gulf stability, puts all of this at risk. The Gulf states have historically remained insulated from Iran-Israel tensions, but a war of this scale with Iranian retaliatory strikes already reported against Israel introduces a new and dangerous uncertainty. The welfare of Bangladeshi migrant workers in the region cannot be an afterthought, as their safety must be the government’s immediate diplomatic priority.
The Geopolitical Bind Bangladesh Must Navigate
Bangladesh’s foreign policy has worked reasonably well in a more stable world. But the world of February 2026 is not stable. It is a world where the rules-based international order is being actively dismantled, where great powers are choosing sides, and where small and middle power nations are being forced to make choices they would rather avoid.
The pressure on Bangladesh will intensify. The United States, which has just committed to a major military campaign in Iran, will expect alignment or, at a minimum, silence from its partners. China, which has deep economic relationships with both Iran and the Taliban, will be recalibrating its regional strategy and watching Dhaka carefully. India, already suspicious of any warming between Bangladesh and Islamabad or Beijing, will be alert to every diplomatic signal. Bangladesh does not have the strategic depth to play all these powers simultaneously, and yet it cannot afford to fully alienate any of them.
What Dhaka can and must do is be proactive rather than reactive. It should immediately convene an emergency review of its energy security posture and begin exploring emergency procurement alternatives. It should activate its diplomatic missions in the Gulf to assess and ensure the safety of its workers. It should engage with SAARC partners to coordinate a regional response to the Pakistan-Afghanistan crisis. And it should, through multilateral forums like the UN, raise its voice clearly for de-escalation, not because Bangladesh is naive about power politics, but because it has a genuine strategic interest in a world where wars do not spread.
The Human Cost at Home
The world is on fire. Bangladesh cannot afford to watch from the sidelines. Behind all of this analysis, the oil prices, the remittances, and the diplomatic triangulation are the people living in Bangladesh. The garment worker in Ashulia cannot absorb another round of price increases. The family in Sylhet is waiting for their son’s money order from Riyadh. The student in Dhaka is trying to understand a world that seems to be making less and less sense. These are the people for whom geopolitics is not an abstraction. For them, wars in Tehran and Kabul are not distant events, but they are forces that will shape whether they can afford to eat, to heat water, to send their children to school.
A government should act with urgency on energy procurement, on worker protection, on inflation management, and on diplomatic clarity. The world is moving very fast right now. Bangladesh cannot afford to move slowly. History has a cruel habit of demanding that small nations make consequential choices at the worst possible moments. This is such a moment. The fires are burning. The question is what we do next.
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