Modi Heads Towards Victory After BJP’s Extreme Electoral Pull – OpEd
India’s extensive seven-stage election process is approaching its climax, with results set to be announced on June 4. Although exit polls will not be released until the final phase concludes on June 1, indications point towards a likely third consecutive term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government.
Despite expectations of a smooth victory for the BJP, the election has presented some unexpected challenges. Voter turnout has been lower than anticipated, with the first four phases recording a participation rate of 66.95 percent—approximately one percent lower than in the 2019 election. The fifth phase saw the lowest turnout at 62.2 percent, although the sixth phase showed a slight increase to 63.37 percent. Factors such as hot weather and voter apathy have been cited as possible reasons for the decline, but it remains uncertain whether this will benefit the opposition or the BJP.
The marginal drop in turnout has caused concern within the BJP, leading its candidates, including Modi, to intensify their Hindu nationalist rhetoric. The party’s Hindutva ideology has not found widespread resonance, particularly in southern India where the BJP does not control any state governments. During the campaign, several inflammatory statements were made, including a controversial remark by Modi suggesting that a Congress Party victory would lead to wealth redistribution among ‘infiltrators’ and communities with higher birth rates—a veiled reference to India’s Muslim population. Modi denied the implication, but his candidates further stoked tensions by accusing Congress of engaging in ‘vote Jihad’ against the BJP.
These developments highlight the BJP’s struggle to maintain control over the political narrative and its anxiety about achieving its ambitious target of 370 seats (or 400 with coalition partners) in the 543-seat Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament). The BJP has framed the election as a national personality contest centered on Modi. However, local politics and economic issues have dominated the campaign across many states. Key concerns include youth unemployment, which accounts for over 80 percent of the country’s unemployed, and high food price inflation despite overall headline inflation being under control.
Some irregularities have been observed in the release of polling data, with delays and discrepancies between tentative numbers released on polling days and final official figures. Additionally, there have been sporadic instances of election-related violence, intimidation, corruption, and disinformation, much of which has spread through social media. Despite these issues, Indian democracy remains largely intact procedurally. Recent state elections have seen fewer recounts and complaints about vote rigging compared to previous contests.
The judiciary has also demonstrated its independence during this election cycle. In mid-February, the Supreme Court ruled that electoral bonds, a fundraising tool, are unconstitutional as they provide an unfair advantage to the ruling party. Earlier this month, the court granted interim bail to Arvind Kejriwal, leader of the Aam Admi Party, allowing him to campaign after his March arrest. These decisions show that checks and balances persist within India’s institutions, even if they do not always favor the BJP.
A surprising result similar to the 2004 general election, when the BJP-led government of then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee was defeated, seems unlikely. The BJP is in a much stronger position now compared to 2004, while the opposition remains weak and fragmented. The Congress Party, once a dominant force, is now a shadow of its former self. The opposition coalition, known as INDIA (India National Developmental and Inclusive Alliance), has struggled with defections and a lack of consensus on seat-sharing arrangements in several states.
The key aspect to watch will be the margin of the BJP’s victory. If the party secures more than the 272 seats needed to form a government but fewer than the 303 seats it currently holds, it will become more dependent on its coalition partners in the National Democratic Alliance. Even if the BJP surpasses its current seat count but falls short of its 370-seat target, it could still impact Modi’s standing to some degree. Under such pressure, the BJP might become more entrenched in its ideological roots, especially due to influence from the Sangh Parivar, a group of Hindu nationalist organizations to which the BJP belongs.
Regardless of the seat counts, the anticipated third term for Modi will likely continue to challenge India’s secular framework. The government’s Hindu nationalist agenda aims to erode the divide between state and religion, pushing to transform India into a ‘Hindu Rashtra’ (Hindu nation). This trajectory will maintain pressure on the country’s secular credentials, shaping the future of India’s political and social landscape.
