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The Facts Tell Us The World Need Fossil Fuels More Than Ever – OpEd

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With the world reeling from the COVID-19 pandemic the world is still using more energy than ever, and growing, according to the British Petroleum (BP) Statistical Review of World Energy 2020 (SRWE2020).

What abundant energy and electricity offers is a way to grow economies and recover from the coronavirus simultaneously. Additionally, abundant energy and reliable electricity propound the ability to bring the world out of its economic doldrums and begin to realistically assess the limitations of green energy and decarbonization.  

Only energy abundance can lower emissions that have been rising yearly. While there has been a stabilization of emissions growth, particularly from the developing world since approximately 2005, CO2 emissions from China, India, Africa, and others such as Indonesia are increasing exponentially. The less developed a country, region, or continent the greater emissions and pollution rise unabated along with lower access to electricity. These duel factors of lowered human development and unreliable/zero electricity are devastating to environmental healthiness, and will eventually cause global government; particularly Asian countries to assess the importance of nuclear energy to electricity and natural gas for electrical generation and transportation.

The annual report is arguably the most important source of energy data available to policymakers, and anyone interested in energy and electricity. The world is using more not less energy since primary energy consumption “grew by 1.3% last year (2019).” This represents ten years of higher primary energy consumption.

Any skirmish, battle, conflict, or outright war (economic or shots fired) will be fought over energy the decades ahead. The good news is renewables (solar panels and wind turbines powered by the sun and wind, and backed up by battery energy storage systems (BESS’)) – though intermittent, land-grabbing, and unreliablegrew 41%. Plus renewables cause electricity prices to skyrocket. The sun and wind though are still the only sustainable source of energy to electricity available.

Interestingly, natural gas came in after renewables with a 36% increase. This falls in line with “U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (falling) by 2.8% in 2019, slightly below 2017 levels,” according to the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) over increased use of cleaner natural gas instead of coal for electrical generation. This trend will continue as more U.S. pipelines are approved. If the U.S. and western governments who want lower emissions why are elected officials trying to outlaw hydraulic fracturing for natural gas or banning nuclear power plants?

Expansionary use of natural gas-fired power plants in the U.S. and other developing nations saw “natural gas consumption rise by 2% in 2019, as the share of natural gas in primary energy consumption rose to a record high of 24.2%.” This new record came primarily from “U.S. production accounting for almost two-thirds of this increase.” 

Still on top is oil at 33% for overall energy consumption, and isn’t surprising since renewables, biomass, coal, natural gas, or nuclear cannot replace the over 6,000 products that come from a barrel of crude oil.

Energy consumption breakdown globally is 27% from coal, 24% from natural gas, 6% from hydropower (dams), 5% from renewables, and 4% from nuclear power. Global coal production continues growing with a 1.5% increase. These numbers come out to 85% of all global energy consumption is from fossil fuels. The SRWE2020 highlights:

“China was responsible for three quarters of the world’s energy consumption growth, followed by India and Indonesia. The U.S. and Germany posted the largest declines.”

Fossil fuels still dominate, and they are growing yearly. The world need to either use more carbon-free nuclear and lower emitting natural gas for electricity and transportation to lower emissions, or the poor will suffer higher global emissions. 

On a positive note for carbon-free societies, nuclear consumption grew “at the fastest level since 2004, with China and Japan providing the largest contributions to the increase.” Still the 1997 Kyoto Protocol has not curbed global carbon dioxide emissions, because they have risen 50% since its enactment.

Anyone advocating for renewables – even with its impressive growth – doesn’t understand the advantages U.S. fracking offers towards global stability, or is unserious about escalating energy consumption and recovering economic growth post COVID-19. 

Other startling numbers for fossil fuel foes and proponents to understand are 1.2 billion people in Sub-Saharan Africa do not have reliable electricity. Add 1.4 billion people within India, another 1.45 billion people from China, and this example: “collectively, South African women and children walk a daily distance equivalent to 16 trips to the moon and back to fetch water.” Wanting and needing fossil fuels are something to consider when “(approximately) 4 billion people lack enough electricity to enjoy a modern life.” 

Modern life is defined in the U.S., as 13,000 kWh per year, per person of electricity according to the World Bank; and the European Union (EU) is around 6,000 kWh per year, per person. Energy poverty and the overarching need for fossil fuels is starkly illustrated by having “3 billion humans rely on biomass like wood, dung (human and animal feces), and charcoal for cooking and heating.” Why shouldn’t disadvantaged humans in China, India, Africa, large parts of Asia, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Central America have fossil fuels to have the same advantages westerners, Europeans, and wealthy Asian countries have?

If you care about social justice and eliminating energy poverty, then every fossil fuel exploration and production option should be available for in-state use and exporting at cost to billions globally who are dying from lack of energy. With technological progress and abundant global energy stocks we have the opportunity to lift billions out of poverty.

Six out of seven humans alive today live in developing nations. Growing economies – as confirmed by the SRWE2020 – need more energy and electricity than we can imagine. With 85% of global energy consumption coming from fossil fuels and world projections by 2050 having another 2 billion people and $85 trillion in GDP,” it is unfair to think “only wind, only solar” can meet our immense global energy needs when “so much more is needed.”

Todd Royal

Todd Royal

Todd Royal, M.P.P. is the Managing Partner for Energy development, Oil & Gas, and Renewables for Ascendance Strategies, a global threat assessment and political consulting firm that is based in Los Angeles, California

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