Azerbaijan Vision 2030 – Analysis

The president of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev issued the presidential order for the adoption of a five priorities list (1) for the Socio-Economic development of the country in 2021.

These priorities under the tagline Azerbaijan Vision 2030 are primarily concerned with the transformation of the oil-centric economy to a multi-centric economy, which will eventually help Azerbaijan to become a regional powerful state. This priority list focuses on sustainable growth following UN sustainable goals by the inclusion of all members of society and protecting the environment. This article explains the five priorities of vision 2030 and will be concluded with policy recommendations. 

Introduction

Azerbaijan had experienced a long history of conflict and border disputes, particularly at end of the twentieth century. But soon Azerbaijan successfully gained the status of a state which provides a modern, safe, and stable standard of living. The state of Azerbaijan successfully covered the long and revolutionary path of socio-economic success. After independence, the state achieved various milestones to gain new levels of modernity with help of economic growth. Building new corridors and logistic routes, involving displaced people of liberated territories, and enhancing human capital, Azerbaijan is striving to overcome modern challenges. 

Being a vibrant economy of the South Caucuses, Azerbaijan is collaborating with many regional states in the energy and oil sector. The strategic location of Azerbaijan (2) connects Europe with the rest of Central Asia and it is not only important for Azerbaijan but equally vital for regional cooperation to achieve the goals of regional integration as highlighted by Uzbek president Shavkat Mirziyoyev in 2021. The current president of Azerbaijan focused on the transformation of the oil-centric economy to a multi-centric economy for achieving enough resistance against external destabilising factors. For this purpose society, state, and the business triad is under consideration to devise an effective macroeconomic policy which is direly needed for the pursuit of these goals. 

Priority No. 1:  Steady and Competitive Economic Growth

1. Stable and High Economic Growth Rate 

The priority of Vision 2030 is based on the improvement of steady and competitive models of the economy. Long-term healthy economic growth requires a higher proportion of the private sector in national income. By adopting such measures, Azerbaijan will not only increase the living standards of its citizens but higher income per capita will also help to achieve the required sustainable growth rate which is needed for the achievement of Vision 2030. (3)

According to this vision, new driving forces must be introduced to yield higher-income jobs to the people of Azerbaijan to transform the economy into non-oil sectors. Investments from the private sector and foreign direct investments are needed for the creation of new driving forces for the success of new economic models. The role of SMEs is equally important in the national income of a country. To make more conducive environments for small and medium businesses, transparency and elimination of shadow practices are direly needed. 

2. Resistance to external influences

As Azerbaijan’s national economy is primarily dependent on oil exports up to a large extent therefore any challenge posed by the international market may influence the national economy. Therefore more solid macroeconomic stability is required to tackle the external pressures by introducing the new fiscal frameworks which will be based on new budget rules and regulations. 

In pursuit of this goal, a diversified economy can only serve the purpose. Apart from this, the excess of foreign exchange reserves is essential for the stabilisation of currency. Azerbaijan can manage the stability in macroeconomics by regulating external, domestic, and aggregate debt through bringing financial reforms. 

Priority No. 2: Dynamic and Inclusive Society (4)

The second priority of Vision 2030 focuses on the development of a dynamic and inclusive society where the fruitful outcomes of sustainable growth must trickle down through the provision of equal opportunities to all citizens. 

1. Benefits for everyone

The first objective of this goal is to create the social well-being of all residents of Azerbaijan by providing them with a decent level of income, employment, and more incentives to generate more share from all societies for national income. 

2. Greater and fairer social security

A sense of fairness and social security can be created by poverty alleviation, minimising unemployment, and providing decent pensions and need-based assistance to marginalised societies and factions. 

3. Balanced development of capital and regions

Unlike in past,  balanced development is necessary to overcome the dissatisfaction of residents. The development of new transport and trade corridors in far-flung areas will provide jobs and opportunities for the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. 

Priority No. 3: Areas of modern innovation and competitive human development

The technological competition among world states is getting more intense with each passing day. Deep digitalisation and new technologies are required for the development of Azerbaijan in this competitive era. The inclusion of skilled and highly competitive human capital in mainstream national income will help Azerbaijan to achieve the Vision of 2030. For this purpose, the state of Azerbaijan needs more technical institutions which will impart world-class skills and education to students in accordance with the requirements of the twenty-first century.

Secondly, the establishment of a creative and innovative society is inevitable for the pursuit of these goals. Thirdly, the state of Azerbaijan needs to focus on the health and standard of living of its nationals so that productive human capital can put more shares in national income. 

Priority No. 4: Great return to liberated territories (5)

Azerbaijan has the right to territorial integrity in the regions which Azerbaijan won through successful military and diplomatic efforts in the last century and during the recent standoff with Armenia. The fourth priority of the vision focuses on the return of displaced people who were displaced forcefully by occupants.

The great return will serve as a bridge between displaced people and new sustainable goals of the economy. The newly settled people will bring more human capital and eventually put their share in national income. These regions will provide more opportunities for making new transport routes. For this purpose, sustainable resettlements and their reintegration into economic initiatives are included in the vision 2030 priority list.

Priority No. 5: A clean and green economy (6)

The last priority is concerned with the clean and green economy. As mentioned by the president, the priorities of Vision 2030 are in complete accordance with UN sustainable goals. For this purpose, sustainable socio-economic development requires the elimination of anti-environmental projects and the introduction of new clean technologies and policies. The greenhouse gas emission and water scarcity are posing major challenges to sustainable development. A high-quality ecological environment and space for green energy are required for the successful implementation of these priorities. 

Recommendations

Azerbaijan has a long history of conflict and border disputes but on other hand, Azerbaijan has successfully traversed a long journey of socio-economic prosperity by adopting new technologies and sustainable development goals. Ilham Aliyev’s Vision of 2030 presents five priories that need to be implemented for sustainable Socio-Economic development.

First, the establishment of enough infrastructure is needed to implement new economic models. Secondly, these sustainable goals require modern technologies for successful completion so highly competitive and skilled human labor is needed. Thirdly, Vision 2030 is aiming at the inclusion of all societies from all parts of country; therefore more job opportunities are need of the hour. 

The current leadership’s concern is genuine therefore viable policies for making more transport routes to enhance the trade volume with other states are required for pursuing this vision. The transformation of an oil-based economy to a non-oil-based economy requires more share from small and medium-size entrepreneurs which can be achieved through more friendly financial policies. 

Allah Nawaz is a graduate of social sciences from Bahria University Islamabad, International affairs analyst with a particular focus on security and strategic studies.

Endnotes:

1. https://azertag.az/en/xeber/Order_of_the_President_of_the_Republic_of_Azerbaijan_on_approval_of_Azerbaijan_2030_National_Priorities_for_Socio_Economic_Development-1724707
2. https://azertag.az/en/xeber/Vision_2030_National_priorities_for_robust_socio_economic_development_in_Azerbaijan-1846113
3. https://azerbaijan.un.org/en/125332-successful-national-development-strategy-should-be-founded-sustainability-principles
4. https://azertag.az/en/xeber/Order_of_the_President_of_the_Republic_of_Azerbaijan_on_approval_of_Azerbaijan_2030_National_Priorities_for_Socio_Economic_Development-1724707
5. https://azertag.az/en/xeber/Order_of_the_President_of_the_Republic_of_Azerbaijan_on_approval_of_Azerbaijan_2030_National_Priorities_for_Socio_Economic_Development-1724707
6. https://azertag.az/en/xeber/Order_of_the_President_of_the_Republic_of_Azerbaijan_on_approval_of_Azerbaijan_2030_National_Priorities_for_Socio_Economic_Development-1724707