On May 29, Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan discussed issues related to the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with the EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus and the crisis in Georgia Toivo Klaar. Pashinyan again stressed the importance of “stressed the need for getting Karabakh’s civil society involved in confidence-building measures”.
How beautifully Pashinyan continues to veil the representatives of the illegitimate regime that is not officially a party to the conflict. Yerevan knows that Baku will not accept it. But before the ratification of the Armenia-EU Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement, Pashinyan simply needs to create an image of Armenia as a “striving for peace and stability country”.
In fact, the experts from different countries say that the new pro-Western government of Armenia is highly likely to make a serious attempt to provoke, to some extent, the resumption of hostilities. And then the blame will be shifted on Azerbaijan.
Under the influence of American advisers, highlighting the membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (known as CSTO), or the United Military Group, the Armenian leadership will seek to draw Russia into the aggravation of the conflict on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and lay a challenge at the country’s feet.
The West is aware that Russia is certain to withdraw from direct military participation on the Armenian side. It will give an opportunity to accuse the Kremlin of non-fulfillment of allied obligations.
Consequently, it will lead to the complete Armenian withdrawal from the Russian influence. In case of the provoked aggravation on the line of contact between the Azerbaijani and Armenian troops, the US government will pretend to believe pieces of evidence of the newly-formed democratic Republic and its legitimate government, and present Azerbaijan as autocracy and aggressor.
The political strategists think it’s possible to unite Georgia and Armenia on the basis of their desire to join NATO and the confrontation of free democratic republics to the Russian threat. In accordance with this scenario Pashinyan’s power and the people that stand behind him make decisions. Pashinyan’s trip to Georgia is foreseen and not accidental. The embodiment of unification is difficult to imagine, but it’s real.