Unanticipated Outcomes And New Challenges: BJP’s Performance In 2024 Indian General Elections – Analysis

The 2024 Indian General Elections have drawn to a close, and the results have unfurled a tapestry of unexpected outcomes. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), leading the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), entered the electoral arena with unwavering confidence, their campaign anthem boldly declaring, “Abki var 400 ke par” (This time we will cross 400 seats).

This ambitious proclamation was not unfounded, as many political pundits and analysts forecasted a sweeping victory, with predictions circling a formidable 350 seats for the BJP. Yet, the reality of the election results has diverged sharply from these optimistic forecasts. Far from crossing the 400-seat threshold, the BJP’s tally settled below 250, and the NDA as a whole fell short of the 300-seat mark. Nonetheless, the alliance managed to surpass the crucial 272-seat threshold, ensuring their capacity to form the government in the imminent future.

A closer examination reveals that while the BJP demonstrated commendable strength in several regions, critical setbacks in pivotal states such as Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Maharashtra which boast the highest number of parliamentary representatives proved to be their Achilles’ heel. The performance in these states was a far cry from the anticipated success, delivering a substantial blow to the party’s seat count. The narrative of electoral disappointment extends further to Rajasthan, Haryana, and Karnataka, where the BJP’s aspirations were equally thwarted, contributing to the gap between their ambitious target and the actual outcome. In West Bengal, where BJP supporters harbored hopes of significant gains against Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress, the party faced a sobering reality. Instead of improving their tally, the BJP saw a dramatic decline from their previous performance.

The Eastern coastal states have emerged as a bastion of support for the BJP, with Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana coming to the party’s rescue. Remarkably, the BJP even succeeded in opening its account in Kerala, traditionally a stronghold of the Left, and made significant strides in increasing its vote share in Tamil Nadu. However, it was Uttar Pradesh, once considered the BJP’s most formidable fortress, that upset Modi’s carefully laid plans. The BJP approached the electorate with a formidable list of achievements, claiming credit for a multitude of initiatives. They had constructed millions of homes for the homeless, provided free cooking gas to women in need, and offered a health insurance scheme worth five lakh rupees. The establishment of numerous hospitals and educational institutions, the provision of millions of toilets, and the installation of world-class infrastructure in roadways, trains, ports, and airports further bolstered their campaign. Yet, their most prized accomplishments were the abrogation of Article 370 and the construction of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, which they hoped would resonate deeply with the voters.

The Double-Edged Sword of Overconfidence: BJP’s Missteps in Uttar Pradesh

In both the state assembly elections in Gujarat and the general elections of 2014 and 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi skillfully capitalized on the opposition’s missteps, turning their blunders into powerful weapons in his electoral arsenal. Phrases like “Maut ka saudagar,” “Chaiwala,” and ” Chowkidar ” were deftly transformed into rallying cries. This time, however, Modi’s confident campaign slogan, “Abki var 400 ke paar” became a double-edged sword. Opposition leaders Rahul Gandhi, Akhilesh Yadav, and others seized upon this slogan, warning the electorate that the BJP’s quest for 400 seats was a ploy to amend the constitution, particularly the provisions concerning reservations. This narrative resonated deeply with Dalit voters, who had previously supported the BJP but now felt threatened. Consequently, the BJP’s performance in Uttar Pradesh suffered significantly.

Furthermore, the “Abki var 400 ke paar” slogan bred overconfidence within the BJP cadre. Believing victory was assured, they failed to put forth the concerted effort for which they are known. Initially, the BJP’s campaign focused on developmental achievements. However, as the first two phases of elections unfolded, it became evident that this strategy was not swaying the electorate. In response, Prime Minister Modi pivoted to religious issues, attempting to galvanize Hindu voters with strong messages directed at Muslims during rallies, notably in Rajasthan. This strategy backfired. Instead of polarizing Hindu voters in their favor, it galvanized Muslim voters, especially in Uttar Pradesh, resulting in a significant loss of over 20 seats for the BJP. Additionally, Rahul Gandhi’s promise of one lakh rupees per year per family and millions of government jobs annually attracted marginalized communities to the Congress and its allies.

The internal strife between the BJP’s central and Uttar Pradesh leadership further undermined their campaign. Opposing caste dynamics also played against the BJP. The election spread over seven phases during the scorching summer, saw lower voter turnout due to extreme heat. This reduced turnout disproportionately affected the BJP, contributing to their unexpected underperformance in Uttar Pradesh. A combination of overconfidence, strategic miscalculations, internal discord, and effective opposition tactics led to the BJP’s disappointing results in Uttar Pradesh, turning their anticipated triumph into a sobering lesson in electoral politics.

Regional Setbacks and Coalition Challenges: BJP’s Road Ahead After the 2024 Elections

After Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra emerged as the next state where the BJP’s path to victory was obstructed. This state, with its 48 seats, had become a testing ground for the BJP’s strategies against regional parties. Here, the BJP disrupted the dominance of two major political entities: Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). By dividing these parties and forming a government with their factions, the BJP employed a tactic that did not sit well with local voters, who ultimately turned away from the party.

Additionally, the contentious issue of Maratha reservations further eroded trust in the BJP. In Rajasthan, despite a recent assembly election victory that secured a comfortable majority for the BJP, the party stumbled during the general elections. The sidelining of prominent state leader and former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje Scindia left the party without a strong substitute. The BJP’s reliance on its central leadership’s influence proved insufficient, and the state, bereft of effective local leadership, did not deliver the anticipated results. Previously, the BJP had swept all 25 seats in Rajasthan.

Haryana presented another challenge. In the 2019 elections, the BJP had won all 10 seats, but this time, the party’s share was halved. The underlying issue was the state’s caste dynamics. During a decade in power, the BJP opted for a non-Jat Chief Minister, a decision that clashed with the sentiments of the Jat community, which comprises 27% of the population. The Jats, a dominant and influential group, openly opposed the BJP, leading to losses in constituencies where their votes were significant. In summary, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Haryana illustrate the complexities and regional dynamics that influenced the BJP’s electoral performance. Strategic missteps, internal discord, and unresolved local issues collectively shaped the party’s fortunes in these critical states.

Prime Minister Modi carries a comprehensive agenda, yet his party has fallen short of securing a majority independently. As he prepares to form the government for the third time in the coming days, the dynamics within his coalition have shifted. His allies now possess a greater capacity for negotiation, with figures like Chandrababu Naidu, former Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh and a master of political maneuvering, and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar poised to wield significant influence. The path ahead will be challenging for Modi as he seeks to advance his agenda without the full freedom he once enjoyed. Nonetheless, there remains hope that Modi will navigate these complexities and continue to work proactively in the best interests of India.

Conclusion 

The 2024 Indian General Elections have delivered unexpected results, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) falling significantly short of its ambitious goal of securing over 400 seats. Despite a confident campaign and substantial achievements, the BJP managed to secure less than 250 seats, with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) as a whole failing to surpass the 300-seat mark.

Key setbacks in pivotal states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Haryana, and Karnataka contributed to this shortfall. Overconfidence, strategic miscalculations, internal discord, and effective opposition tactics further undermined the BJP’s performance. As Prime Minister Modi prepares to form the government for the third time, he faces a more challenging landscape, with coalition partners holding greater negotiating power. However, there remains hope that Modi will navigate these complexities and continue to work in the best interests of India.

About the authors:

• Prof. (Dr.) Jagmeet Bawa: Professor and Head, Department of Political Science, Central University of Himachal Pradesh, Dharamshala, India. Dr. Bawa brings with him a rich experience of 15 years in teaching and research. His expertise lies in the domains of Indian Political System and Central Asian Politics. Prior to his current position, he taught for a decade at I K Gujral Punjab Technical University, Jalandhar, India. Throughout his academic journey, he has guided ten students toward the successful completion of their Ph.D. degrees. Additionally, Dr. Bawa’s scholarly contributions extend to the realm of publications, with five books authored and over 30 research papers penned. His pursuit of academic excellence has taken him across various countries, where he has engaged in academic and research activities. Presently, his focus lies on Central Asian Politics, with four students currently pursuing their doctoral degrees under his guidance on this very subject.

• Balinder Singh: Research Scholar and Academic. Ph.D. in Political Science, Central University of Himachal Pradesh, Dharamshala, India. Dr. Singh has actively participated in numerous national and international conferences and has published over 20 research articles in esteemed international journals.