Political Upheaval In Bangladesh Could Be India’s Security Nightmare – OpEd

The dramatic spiralling of political events which began with peaceful students protest against Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League government’s controversial quota system which reserved 30 percent of jobs for families of veterans who fought in the 1971 Liberation War have so far resulted in the brutal killing of more than 400 people and anti-government protesters breaking into Hasina’s residence, vandalising and looting the interiors. The unexpected unfolding of events within a short span of time between early June and first week of August 2024 brought 15 years of Hasina regime in the small South Asian country to a grinding halt. 

As the law and order situation in Bangladesh went out of control with the protest on reservation issue gaining steam seemingly from external influences, amid the political upheaval, the army suggested Prime Minister Hasina to leave the country and she chose India as the destination for her temporary and immediate shelter in the midst of her request for political asylum to UK. Indian Security agencies with all preparedness received Hasina after she reached India in an Air Force jet.
The rising concerns for India, however, lie in the sudden surge in violence blowing out of proportions in Bangladesh which lends itself to a conspiracy theory that the entire episode of violence leading to fleeing of Hasina from the country might have been externally orchestrated. 

India’s Security Concerns 

The emerging law and order scenario in Bangladesh has overwhelming security implications for India for a number of reasons. First, many people of the country in their acts of violence appeared as if they do not share the values, legitimacy and respect that the family of Hasina inherited from the freedom struggle of Bangladesh and India’s military assistance towards the cause as the protesters went on to destroy the statue of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, father of Hasina who played an instrumental role in the freedom struggle. The efforts to make the Hindus soft targets by burning their houses and temples, signalled the country is under external as well as radical Islamic influence which is a threat to India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Second, the issue of illegal migration from Bangladesh has further gathered momentum. There are concerns that the unfolding events in Bangladesh will push people apart from Hindu victims to move across the border even while India has taken efforts to seal it.

Third, Bangladesh shares border with five Indian states such West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Tripura. Therefore, anarchy and resultant rise of Islamic radicals in Bangladesh could penetrate and spill over into India’s soft border areas in its Eastern and North-Eastern regions. Fourth, insurgents of India’s Northeast region found safe haven in Bangladesh which was effectively contained by Hasina government. The government led by Hasina had arrested and handed over some of the leaders of militant organizations to India and militancy in the border areas witnessed a considerable decline during her leadership. New Delhi considers Dhaka a strategic link between mainland India and the northeastern states given that these states being landlocked, it is through Bangladesh that they find a quick outlet to the sea.

Fifth, enhanced space for radical Islamists to operate in Bangladesh would enhance Pakistani influence in Bangladesh and it would also enhance the Chinese influence in the country which Hasina government did not allow to cross redlines raising India’s security concerns. Sixth, India is well aware of the fact how Khaleda Zia government led by Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) had a Pakistani tilt and proclivity towards radical Islamist groups such as Jamaat. Until 2009 when Hasina formed government, the government under Zia’s leadership had turned the country into a fertile ground for radical Islamic elements and insurgents from India’s Northeast region providing a spur to anti-India sentiments.

Seventh, over the years, adding to Indian concerns, China became successful in forging a close partnership with Bangladesh. In 2005, China overtook India as Bangladesh’s principal source of imports and later successfully tied the small South Asian country into the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Further, Bangladesh according to a 2017 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) report became the second-largest importer of Chinese arms after Pakistan in South Asia. China sought to further enhance its influence in the Indian Ocean through Bangladesh which was resisted by the Hasina government. On the other side, India’s concerns of strategic encirclement by China in the Himalayan and Indian Ocean region prompted close security ties with Bangladesh under Hasina government in the forms of joint border patrols and joint military and naval exercises and by concluding agreements on fighting terrorism, organized crime and drug trafficking. All these concerns would further get exacerbated under the current atmosphere of anarchy and rise of extremism within Bangladesh.

Eighth, under Hasina’s leadership, the enhanced relationship between India and Bangladesh translated into signing of many bilateral agreements not only in the areas of trade and investment but many agreements were signed in new areas such as space, information technology, electronics, cybersecurity, and civil nuclear energy among others. It was under Prime Minister Hasina both India and Bangladesh launched Bangladesh-India Friendship Pipeline from Siliguri in West Bengal to Parbatipur, Bangladesh. India considers Bangladesh pivotal to its Act East Policy as both shares large border areas in the East and North East. The sub-regional initiatives that tie up India and Bangladesh such as BBIN initiative that was formalized in 1997 by Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal with the objectives of forging cooperation on connectivity of power, transport and infrastructure and BCIM, which seeks to establish an economic corridor connecting Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar were perceived to favour India under Hasina’s leadership.

These developmental initiatives helped assuage Indian concerns over Bangladesh cozying up to China. However, under the current security conditions, it is difficult to gauge in which direction the future bilateral ties would tilt. Hence, the implications of the changing political dynamics in Bangladesh are presently not at all favourable to India.