A Diplomatic Curveball: Jaishankar’s Unexpected Attendance At The SCO In Pakistan – OpEd

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“The era of uninterrupted dialogue with Pakistan is over”. The stern statement made by the Minister of External Affairs of India, Mr. S. Jaishankar dominated the headlines in August 2024 reflecting India’s unwillingness to engage diplomatically with Pakistan. Jaishankar re-enforced India’s position of refusing any diplomatic engagement with Pakistan, maintaining a hostile environment over regional cooperation.

However, on October 4, just a few days before the summit, India surprisingly reversed its decision, announcing that Jaishankar would indeed attend the SCO summit in response to the invitation extended to Prime Minister Modi by Pakistan. This sudden diplomatic shift has raised eyebrows, sparking speculation about the motivations behind India’s change of heart and leaving Islamabad with mixed reactions regarding what it signals for future relations between the two states. The decision raises the question as to what propelled India to participate in SCO summit. 

The SCO, is a key regional bloc that includes not only China and Russia, but also Central Asian republics and Iran – countries with which India has critical strategic and economic interests. India is bolstering its ties with Russia and Central Asia, partly to counterweight China’s increasing influence in the region with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Her absence from a platform that enables her to influence regional actors would allow rival states like China to fill in the vacuum, potentially sidelining India from important geopolitical dialogues. India may have found it strategically imperative to assert itself in the SCO as significant member as the regional geopolitics in other multilateral platforms transform allowing Pakistan to emerge as a potential market.

Pakistan is currently aiming to broaden its prospects for economic progress by enhancing international cooperation and investment opportunities. The country has shown interest in joining BRICS, an influential economic bloc currently comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The two emerging economic giants, China and Russia have enthusiastically extended their support for Pakistan’s entrance in BRICS eyeing the potential for trade growth. The challenge for Pakistan’s membership particularly comes from India. India’s opposition stems from its historical belligerence and animosity with Pakistan over border disputes and false accusations of cross-border terrorism. India fears that Pakistan’s admission to BRICS could challenge its influence within the group, further complicating regional geopolitics. However, Pakistan seeks the numerous opportunities that BRICS can offer; trade opportunities, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and multilateral development given the progress of China- Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in the country. 

The completion of CPEC projects and CPEC 2.0 adds a layer of significance to Pakistan’s role in regional economic cooperation. CPEC, the flagship initiative under China’s BRI is poised to enhance Pakistan’s infrastructure, with investment in energy, transport and industrial sectors. The SCO member states can potentially benefit from these emerging CPEC projects substantially for regional connectivity and trade facilitation. For SCO states, CPEC presents opportunities to enhance trade routes, boost supply chains and attract FDI. The prospect of multilateral engagement through SCO platform further attracts investments in CPEC from member states seeking to leverage the project for economic and strategic benefits. For India, CPEC represents a potential security threat as it facilitates closer economic and military ties between Pakistan and China, two biggest regional rivals. India has consistently raised its concerns about CPEC during SCO meetings, though not always explicitly. At SCO summits, India often frames its opposition to CPEC within the broader context of respecting national sovereignty in infrastructure projects, hinting CPEC as a violation of territorial integrity. SCO summit allows India to stay diplomatically active and assert its positions on key regional issues. 

The SCO offers crucial opportunities for member states to engage in multilateral discussions on regional security, trade and connectivity, which India would have to forfeit in its absence from the summit. India fears that its absence will leverage Pakistan to deepen ties with China, Russia and Central Asian states. For India, staying away from the summit could isolate it within the group and allow Pakistan to dominate conversations that impact regional dynamics. 

India’s decision to attend the SCO summit in Islamabad, despite its earlier refusal, reflects a nuanced and strategic balancing act. This move stems from the need to maintain its influence within the SCO, especially when key regional players like Russia and China are involved. By participating, India avoids ceding ground to Pakistan and China, ensuring it remains part of critical discussions on reginal connectivity, security and trade. The initial strong stance of rejecting any form of engagement with Pakistan was a form message of defiance. Reversing its decision just a few days ahead of the summit seems to have been influenced by external pressures. The shift feels alike a climbdown from India’s earlier tough rhetoric. Despite strategic necessity to stay involved in critical regional discussions, the about- face is likely perceived as a diplomatic concession, diminishing India’s hardline position against Pakistan. 

Noor Ul Huda Atif

Noor Ul Huda Atif is a PhD scholar of Peace and Conflict Studies at Centre for Peace and Stability (CIPS) of National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan. Her area of research is terrorism, perception building, information warfare and cognition. She is currently working as Research Officer at International Institute for Global Strategic Analysis (IIGSA). She has prior experience of five years in research field having worked at think tanks; South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI) and Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies (CASS).

One thought on “A Diplomatic Curveball: Jaishankar’s Unexpected Attendance At The SCO In Pakistan – OpEd

  • October 7, 2024 at 2:58 am
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    didn’t offer much insight of why Indian position changed. However, well unbiased article. Not make up stuff like some other articles I see. Thanks for being straight.

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