A Crumbling Edifice: The Taliban’s Unravelling Grip On Power – OpEd
The Taliban’s resurgence in Afghanistan following the US withdrawal in August 2021 was heralded as a victory for the Islamist militant group. However, nearly three years into its rule, the regime is exhibiting signs of profound instability. Deep-rooted factionalism, economic mismanagement and failures in governance are threatening the Taliban’s ability to maintain control over Afghanistan. These internal fissures, combined with increasing diplomatic pressures and engagement with opposition forces, have the potential to accelerate the regime’s collapse.
One of the most significant threats to the Taliban government is its internal discord. Although the movement has long prided itself on its ideological unity and military discipline, its transition from an insurgency to a governing authority has exposed deep-seated factionalism. The two dominant factions within the Taliban the Kandahari and Haqqani networks are engaged in an ongoing struggle for power, each vying for control over key government ministries, economic resources and foreign policy decisions.
The Kandahari faction, led by Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada and based in southern Afghanistan, adheres to a more traditionalist and centralized governance model. In contrast, the Haqqani network, under Sirajuddin Haqqani, exercises considerable influence in eastern Afghanistan and has historically maintained close ties with Pakistan’s intelligence apparatus. These rivalries have manifested in policy disputes over governance structures, counterterrorism strategies and diplomatic engagements, leading to an increasingly fragmented administration.
Furthermore, growing resentment among Taliban commanders over the exclusion of mid-level and field commanders from decision-making processes has exacerbated internal divisions. Many rank-and-file fighters, who fought for years under the belief that they were restoring an Islamic government, are now disillusioned by the monopolization of power by elite figures within the movement.
The Taliban’s inability to manage Afghanistan’s economy is another major source of instability. With the freezing of approximately $9 billion in Afghan central bank assets by the United States and the cessation of international aid which once constituted nearly 75% of Afghanistan’s budget, the country’s financial system is in a state of near-collapse. The regime has struggled to generate sufficient domestic revenue to sustain governance and provide basic services.
The Taliban’s heavy-handed policies, such as banning women from working in international NGOs and restricting female education, have further alienated global donors and exacerbated Afghanistan’s economic isolation. Additionally, their reliance on illicit economies, including narcotics production and smuggling, has not been sufficient to offset revenue losses, nor has it provided sustainable economic relief.
The economic turmoil has resulted in widespread food insecurity, skyrocketing unemployment and deteriorating living conditions for millions of Afghans. According to the United Nations, nearly 90% of Afghans live below the poverty line, with millions at risk of famine. This humanitarian catastrophe not only fuels public discontent but also heightens the likelihood of armed resistance against the Taliban’s rule.
Governance under the Taliban remains ineffective and exclusionary. The movement’s failure to form an inclusive government despite early promises has alienated key ethnic and political groups, leading to widespread discontent among Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks. The Taliban’s rigid interpretation of Sharia law has resulted in severe human rights violations, particularly against women and minorities, prompting international condemnation and reinforcing Afghanistan’s diplomatic isolation.
At the international level, the Taliban’s reluctance to engage in substantive reforms has prevented Afghanistan’s reintegration into the global community. Regional powers such as China, Russia and Iran, while initially open to engaging with the Taliban, have grown increasingly frustrated with its failure to combat terrorist groups operating within Afghanistan. The Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP), in particular, has intensified its attacks, further exposing the Taliban’s inability to maintain security.
Diplomatic pressure is mounting from neighboring countries, including Pakistan, which has expressed frustration over the Taliban’s failure to curb cross-border militancy. The recent escalation of tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan over Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) insurgency activities underscores the complexities of regional diplomacy and the regime’s precarious position.
The Taliban’s current trajectory suggests that its government is neither stable nor sustainable in the long term. A more concerted effort is needed to sustain diplomatic and economic pressure on the Taliban while ensuring that humanitarian assistance directly reaches Afghan civilians without benefiting Taliban leadership. While the Taliban remains resilient, its ability to maintain control is contingent on addressing these fundamental issues.
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