The Horn Of Africa States: Things Can Be Alright – OpEd

The expanding uncontrolled chaos in Ethiopia and Somalia denote a clear evidence that things are not working in the Horn of Africa States region. The other two countries of Djibouti and Eritrea ruled by ailing or long staying presidents are not doing well either as the world around them spins into more chaos everyday that passes.

The decay in governance in the region is a clear evidence that the economic pie is getting smaller which fires more revolt and more chaos in the region and hence the swelling of its refugee production processes. The world knows that more people from the Horn of Africa States will be travelling out in any direction in the coming years if the governance infrastructures of the region fail their people and is not replaced sooner than later.

And as usual the governments of Ethiopia and Somalia resort to guns and war solutions, as this appears to them the magic solution to the simple yet complex missteps in governance they put in place. The two countries are beset by internal ethnic-based conflicts and external issues, involving mostly both countries and other countries, which have interest in the resources of the region. Many of the citizens of these two countries are on the run or are about to run to find new shelters elsewhere.

The weather is not kind to the region either and droughts and man-made famines affect it drastically, when farmers cannot attend to their small plots to farm and/or tend to their few flocks of animals. It is even worse when some of the leaders of the region attempt to bring back those who crossed oceans to run away from their mismanagement and corruption to distant lands, and especially from countries, where there are laws and more humaine treatment of people. Somalia is one such country, which recently signed arrangements with some foreign countries, to return citizens who have run for their lives to seek shelter elsewhere.

The region is, indeed, falling apart as the leaders of the region push towards more conflicts and not to calm down the situations in their countries. Somalia and Ethiopia are the major culprits in this respect, where civil wars pitching one people against another in the same country has become part of the deadly games of politics in these two countries. “Keep the people busy killing each other instead of looking at their poor leadership” seems to be the motto of these leaders and their helpers from outside.

What can be done to reverse the situation is a major question that many are asking themselves and perhaps the answer is simple but cannot be said. Indeed, it is not difficult and it simply requires a change of governance in both countries, if the world has to prevent a new influx of refugees from the region flooding the world again. The culling of the population of the region through bullets and the side effects of wars cannot continue forever!

But how does one bring about a change in governance without causing more chaos? It is important for the countries that have interest in the region to realize that it is better to have a governance infrastructure that not only works for their interests but also for the people of the region. Clearly the people of the region are tired of the current governance therein and they want new blood in governance, which is better equipped.

The fact that the world is now in two and/or more camps is clear and both or all compete for their own interests in the region without regard to the needs of the populations of the region. The divergence of the two main countries of the region, Somalia and Ethiopia, adds to the complication. The two countries differ over the challenges facing their countries, whereas one, Ethiopia, is seeking to have access to a sea, which does not belong to it to assuage the local resistance to its rule, and the other, Somalia, is dealing not only with its own clan issues but also preventing Ethiopia from taking its territory.

Ethiopia is one country which consists of some eighty nationalities with different cultures and tongues, where some of the major ones want either to control the country or to secede from it, while Somalia is basically the only country in Africa with one homogenous population in tongue, religion, and culture which, however, has to deal with unreconcilable family quarrels. 

In Ethiopia, the quarrels between the Tigrayan, the Amhara and the Oromo peoples, the largest ruling groups of Ethiopia, date back to pre-consitution of the current Ethiopian state. The Oromo people who were mostly a ruled people, who have currently and finally taken over the mantle now do want to go back to being ruled. The wars between these three nationalities is bound to break Ethiopia into a multitude of smaller nations.

The Somalis of Ethiopia and Afar people are also at each other’s throats over desertic but minerally endowed lands and conflicts between these two nationalities and their distrust of the federal government of Ethiopia adds to the plight of that country. There are also the Benishangul and the Sidama peoples issues in Ethiopia and those of many other nationalities whose interests do not coincide with the interests of the current Oromo rulers of the country or for that matter any other ruling people.

It is where it is necessary to introduce new interim rulers and administrations for both countries to set up proper, egalitarian and liberal institutions, where all citizens are equal under the law irrespective of tribe, clan or status. These new administrations should involve a holistic approach. This should be a comprehensive, interconnected strategy that will address not only reconciliation among the peoples of each country but also economic development while fighting extremism at the same time. 

Such an interim governing authority of the two countries should focus on creating long-term socio-economic stability and unity of each country through national-level governance reforms and community involvement. Such a holistic approach should also work towards creating a more peaceful region  where the countries are cooperating and not fighting and/or undermining each other, as seems to be the case at present.

The interim governance infrastructure of the two countries should offer a compartmentalized governing infrastructure to manage the countries for a certain period of between three to four years to prepare them for democratic elections where the people would decide through organized parties who should be ruling the country for specified periods that follow. 

On the economic development process, the interim governance should involve a detailed sector specific strategies that will deal with the traditional livelihoods of farming, livestock rearing and fishing but also include plans for other resources exploitation of the two countries. This would include the exploitation of the minerals, the geostrategic location of the countries as well as other sectors involving not only application of new technologies but manufacturing and processing to employ the bulging youthful population of these countries. This should be designed for the new generations with respect to education, healthcare, and private sector engagement, leveraging the diaspora of the two countries as well.

It would seem that the two countries have lost the old ways of life systems with respect to Culture and peaceful cohabitation. The interim governance should introduce a cultural revitalization of the region in terms of arts, music, literature, folklore, and community-based dialogues to build shared national identities, which seems to being lost forever, if not stopped on its tracks now.

The current administrations of the two countries are accused to being corrupt to the core, which is one of the main causes of the dissent therein. The interim administrations should work on measures that will curtail corruption and build institutions that will hold people in any position accountable. Government transactions and activities should all be digitalized to ensure transparency and accountability of all aspects of governance.

The interim governance will have to handle extremism through  a large spectrum of activities involving not only military, policing, and intelligence, but also education and socio-economic strategies with respect to employment of the large youthful population.

The aforesaid may look as the reflection of the the views of a curious but is actually an innovative approach outside the box. This introduces a reconciliation process among the peoples of the two countries and economic revitalization and setting up of renewed identities and belonging for the citizens of the two countries. 

It is a proposal for inclusion and not exclusion as current administrations of the two countries appear to be biding for, and it is a new infrastructure that will not only serve the countries of the region but also the interests of those who have interest in the region. 

No country can live alone in the world of today and countries have to trade and exchange goods and services. A peaceful trading nation is always better than a nation at war with itself and with others, where theft and crime is the basis of transactions, as seems to be the case in the region, where countries interested in the products of the country appear to be stealing those resources and not putting anything back.   It is clear that this is easily said than done and the implementation of such a proposal is more complicated than meets the eye. However, the will to do and change is often greater than the problem itself and working on this would be more fruitful than leaving things take their own course “as is”.