India Is New Most Populous Country In World: Good And Bad Of New Reality – OpEd

According to Bloomberg data from January of this year, at the end of 2022, the Republic of India will overtake the People’s Republic of China and thus become the most populous nation in the world. Based on UN projections, India’s population was 1.417 billion, while according to recently published data from the Chinese State Bureau of Statistics, China’s population at the end of 2022 was slightly less than 1.412 billion. Put simply, India currently has 5 million more people than China.

What was expected to happen for years has now finally happened. India now has more people than China. It is very likely that India overtook China sometime last year. In January, Beijing announced that China’s population had shrunk for the first time in more than 60 years, leading to a demographic crisis: the labor force is shrinking, while health and social care costs are rising. It is an opportunity for India.

When considering India’s large population, it should be kept in mind that the population in that country is constantly under-enumerated: a certain number of people always remain unenumerated. For example, during the last official census in India, which was held in 2011, enumerators failed to enumerate as many as 27.85 million people. While the Indians fail to list their large population, the Chinese have been covering up their population decline for years. According to some estimates, China’s population began to decline about a decade before the government in Beijing acknowledged it. It is no surprise that India has become the most populous country in the world. South Asia as a whole has had a larger population than China for at least ten years. The population of that region is about 1.8 billion people. If, for example, the former British India (British Raj) had not been divided into India, Pakistan and Bangladesh in 1947, the population of the great undivided India would have long exceeded the population of China.

Reasons for coming to the throne

There are two key reasons why India has more people than China. The first reason stems from the historical sequence of events – India has always had a large population, especially in its fertile northern plains. Because of the climatic reasons and the very fertile land, it is possible to grow rice, wheat and various other grains there in various seasons, where twice as much food is obtained as in other parts of the world. Another reason is that due to lagging behind in the education of the population, especially women, India moved from high to moderate birth rates a little later than China. A weaker education system is proving to be a generator of rapid population growth. Since the girls do not receive the necessary education for qualified jobs in the cities, they remain in the countryside where they work mainly in agriculture and give birth to a large number of children. However, India has now achieved a fertility rate of two children per woman, showing that fertility decline can be achieved without resorting to draconian unnatural measures such as China’s one-child policy. Beijing abandoned the policy in 2015 after it had been in place since 1980.

Stable fertility rates

According to current projections, India’s population will continue to grow for some time to come as many Indian women are just entering childbearing age. You should know that as many as two thirds of Indians are under 35 years old. Moreover, the decline in fertility rates is not uniform across all of India’s 28 states and 8 union territories. In the northern and at the same time the two most populous Indian states, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, fertility rates are high at 2.35 and 2.98 per woman, respectively, while in several southern states the fertility rate is well below the rate of 2.1 children per woman (minimum which is needed for the population to remain at positive zero). For example in the former Portuguese colony, today the state of Goa, the fertility rate is 1.3 children per woman, and in the states of Karnataka and Maharashtra 1.7. Nationally, fertility is declining across all religious, linguistic and ethnic groups, contrary to the belief that some groups have significantly higher birth rates than others. Thus, for example, between 1992 and 2005, Muslim fertility fell from 4.4 to 2.6 children per woman, while in the same period Hindu fertility fell from 3.3 to 2.1 children per woman.

Absence of a new population census 

We will still have to wait for a while for the new official domestic census, which will confirm that India is the most populous country in the world. Since way back in 1881, India has had a census every ten years. However, the last census was held in 2011, since the planned 2021 census was postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic. It is still not formally specified when the new census will take place, but most analysts believe that it will take place only after the general elections in 2024. The official reason for the delay is the pandemic, but certain political reasons are hidden in the background. Information about the population of a particular caste, religious demographics, distribution of economic benefits, population balance between northern and southern states, potentially generate uncomfortable questions that government officials would not want to answer in an election campaign. Despite the delay, the official New Delhi should definitely hold a census as soon as possible to obtain important statistical data on the basis of which all possible policies such as health, education, labor, social welfare, transport and economic development are formed.

Challenges of a large population

There have been some voices directed at the government in New Delhi to introduce some population control measures, but Indian demographic experts believe that concerns about overcrowding are generally exaggerated and have no real basis. Exactly the opposite. According to experts, India has an opportunity to take advantage of the demographic boon of a large and young population provided timely measures are taken to improve education, health care and the acquisition of skills that make up the skilled workforce.

Members of Parliament from the ruling Indian People’s Party (BJP) Ravi Kishan, Nishikant Dubey and Rakesh Sinha, among others, have in recent years called for a central law to curb India’s population growth. BJP leader and lawyer Ashwini Upadhyay unsuccessfully sought the Supreme Court to order the national government to implement the “two-child” policy. Under such a policy, parents with more than two children would not be considered eligible for government jobs and other benefits. However, the government does not feel that India needs such measures as current trends are encouraging. Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya told parliament in April last year that population control should not be done by force but by raising awareness and educating people.

Experts like Poonam Muttreja, director of the Population Foundation of India, agree with this approach. “India definitely does not need to introduce strict population control measures… We are on track to achieve population stabilization by mid-century which will be very close to the long-term goal of India’s National Population Policy 2000 – achieving a stable population by 2045.” The United Nations predicts that India’s population will peak at 1.7 billion in the 2060s and then decline to 1.5 billion by the end of the 21st century. Muttreja emphasized that improved awareness and better implementation of family planning programs (Parivar Vikas Mission) have helped bring India’s total fertility rate closer to positive zero. The Parivar Vikas Mission has facilitated access to contraception and family planning services in districts with high birth rates.

India may face challenges such as increased pressure on cities due to increased rural-to-urban migration and political changes caused by population redistribution between northern and southern India. A growing population is expected to further strain the country’s urban centers. The UN predicts that India’s urban population will jump from 483 million in 2020 to 675 million in 2035. New Delhi could witness an increase in its population from approximately 20.6 million in 2021 to 30.9 million in 2041 in a high-growth scenario. 

Experts like Chinmay Tumbe, associate professor of economics at the Indian Institute of Management in Ahmedabad, point out that demographic changes will lead to internal political friction. “The huge differences that open up between North and South India would strain the federal system, especially with regard to the redistribution of seats in the Lok Sabha” (the lower house of the Indian Parliament). The constitution stipulates a freeze on the increase in the number of parliamentary and parliamentary constituencies until 2026. The application of this restriction would put the northern states in a disadvantageous position, because their number of representatives in the parliament would not actually increase, even though their population is actually increasing. Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, predicted a shift in political power back in 2019. “In 2026, for example, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh alone could gain 21 seats, while Kerala and Tamil Nadu would lose as many as 16.”

The benefits of a large population

The fact that India is the most populous country in the world brings with it both good and bad sides. It can be stated without hesitation that the 21st century in which we live is the century of India. India has always been a country of the future, but only today, in the 21st century, is it finally starting to exploit all its potential. These potentials are huge.

Despite unavoidable everyday problems such as poverty, tensions between Hindu and Muslim ethnic communities or insufficiently accessible education system, India is a country that radiates some new ideas, rapid and dynamic changes, diversity and uniqueness. Since more than two-thirds of the Indian population is of working age, the government must seize this opportunity for even greater economic growth. During 2022, it is estimated that India’s GDP grew by 7%, but the growth can be even better. Although the formal unemployment rate at the end of 2022 was about 8%, which is not a small number (not to forget illegal work), factory production has literally been flocking to India in recent years – including vital industries such as cell phone and semiconductor production. While tensions between China and the West are rising, India has made some progress in boosting manufacturing, attracting international giants like Apple.

Incidentally, in 2022, the Indian economy was the 5th largest in the world with a nominal GDP of USD 3.4 trillion. The Indian government needs to create more jobs outside of agriculture (about 45% of the workforce is employed in that sector) to realize its full economic potential. Factory production accounts for only 14% of GDP. Government must create at least 90 million new non-agricultural jobs by 2030 to accommodate the workforce entering the labor market. But it is certain that India is well on its way to becoming the 3rd largest economy in the world by 2030. The Indian government is also expanding its infrastructure, including building a high-speed rail network. The first high-speed rail corridor is currently under construction between Mumbai and Ahmedabad for a length of 508 km with a design maximum train speed of 320 km/h. Recently, Indian culture has been increasingly penetrating the global framework through films, TV series, music and other tools of soft power.

The most populous country in the world becomes a superpower

Most important of all, the fact that India has overtaken China in terms of population on a strategic level is actually a symbolic gesture that further cements India’s international position as an independent and independent political and economic (super)power. Since gaining its independence in 1947, India has followed a policy of independence: non-alignment in its foreign policy. Indians have always aspired to be free in the international arena due to bad colonial experiences. Since Narendra Modi came to power in 2014, India’s sovereign foreign policy has taken on an additional dimension. India started exploiting its potentials and became a powerful geopolitical pole that is neither a servant nor a satellite of anyone.

India is an extremely important geoeconomic and geopolitical player. In terms of economic development, Indian authorities seek to emulate the East Asian model of domestic production (Made in India) instead of the free trade model supported by the US, EU and other Western powers. In terms of geopolitical positions, India has strengthened its independent positions in the last decade. Instead of supporting Ukraine or Russia during the Russo-Ukrainian war, New Delhi took an extremely judicious neutral stance that was praised even by India-averse Pakistan.

The sincere belief that their homeland is indeed a great power is growing in the Indian population. Indian public figures openly say that their country should pursue its own interests, while at the same time they see other great powers as rivals, not mentors. In a recent survey conducted by the American research organization Morning Consult, Indians consider China to be the biggest military threat, followed by the United States and only after that comes Pakistan. The information that Indians see a bigger threat in the overseas USA than in their hated neighbor Pakistan is really surprising and leaves a strong impression. The question is why? Well, probably because, unlike China and Pakistan, the Americans have a habit of advising or giving advice on how and in what way Indian society, state and politics should be organized.

Although the Americans, unlike the Chinese and Pakistanis, have no territorial claims towards the Indian territory, apparently the Indians are more concerned about the tutelary claims of Americans. It is clear that Indian policy makers and the Indian public do not want India to be a balancing pole that will lean towards the USA, Russia and China depending on the current geopolitical picture but they want India to be a great and independent power that does not depend on others. It is to be expected that in the near future Indian representatives on the international level will increasingly promote Indian values, interests, views and goals. However, they will not want to impose their views on anyone, especially not by force or blackmail, as many people from the West and some from the East do.