Fire In The Crescent: The Iran–US War And Its Shadow Over Bangladesh – OpEd
On the night of February 28 2026, the world changed. An American-Israeli airstrike in Tehran resulted in the death of the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, and the decapitation of the Islamic Republic’s top leadership. Within hours, retaliatory missiles launched by Iran began flying across the night sky, with targets being the US military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Jordan. Tensions that diplomats had abhorred for decades and that various rounds of nuclear negotiations had desperately tried to prevent had come to pass. The Middle East is presently embroiled in warfare, which will have far-reaching ramifications beyond its borders.
How We Got Here
The war was due to years of tension and failed diplomatic efforts that created an environment of hostility. After the collapse of the the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran began expanding its nuclear enrichment programme gradually and consistently. By the end of 2024, the IAEA reported stocks of uranium enriched to near-purity for a bomb, with no credible civilian justification. As Israel hit Iran’s nuclear facilities in June 2025, it set the programme back by two years but did not end it. During the same period, high-pressure sanctions were reimposed by the United States, which, according to their own admission, resulted in the short supply of dollars that caused the free fall of the Iranian rial and helped trigger the riots of December 2025 and January 2026. These were the largest massive anti-government protests since the revolution of 1979.
Iranian security forces took brutal measures against those protests, killing thousands of civilians. The Iranian government’s massacre of its own people, along with its renewed nuclear ambitions, gave the Trump administration the political justification it needed. On February 26, the third round of indirect nuclear talks in Geneva came to a failed conclusion. The failed conclusion of the talks also meant that the ten-day deadline that was imposed by President Trump expired. The bombs dropped two days later.
The War Today and What Lies Ahead
In less than two weeks, the US and Israel have initiated around two thousand strikes on Iran, dismantling its air defences, navy and command-and-control systems—the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader. Nonetheless, the Islamic Republic has stood its ground. Ali Larijani, a senior security official of Iran, is making defiant statements even after the limitations suffered by its leadership. Its missile and drone salvos have been impactful. They have targeted various Gulf states, crippled vital AWS data centres in Bahrain and the UAE and pulled Lebanon back into action through Hezbollah. Israel has conducted new bombings in Beirut.
President Trump has indicated he will not engage in negotiations with Tehran unless it surrenders unconditionally, making a swift ceasefire virtually impossible. The official goals of the operation are said to be the destruction of Iran’s missile capabilities and the nuclear programme, followed by regime change to install the Iranian opposition under exiled figures like Reza Pahlavi. However, history teaches that simply decapitating a regime does not give birth to a compliant but stable regime. The ambition is overshadowed by the Iraq Grant, Libya Campaign, and Afghanistan Campaign. The post-war vacuum, rather than the fighting itself, may be the most dangerous phase of this war.
A World Rattled by Shockwaves
The economic damage has been severe and could get worse. The commander of Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guards has proclaimed that the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed for business. With around 150 ships stuck in the vicinity of the strait and insurers cancelling war-risk cover for Gulf transits, about one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply has been disrupted. Since the onset of the competing military campaigns, Brent crude has risen by over 25 per cent. Following the Iranian drone attacks, Qatar has declared force majeure on its large liquefied natural gas exports, which will cause European energy prices to surge dramatically, throwing central banks from London to Tokyo into a reassessment phase on their interest rate trajectory.
International travel by air has been disrupted greatly. Air India, British Airways, Lufthansa, and Virgin Atlantic are among several international carriers to suspend services in the region. Stock Markets of the world have been rattled. Janet Yellen, the previous Treasury Secretary of the United States, has issued a warning that the ongoing conflict will result in a slowdown in growth and an increase in inflation. Fed is kept pinned down, unable to lower interest rates. Goldman Sachs analysts predict that if the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed for weeks, oil prices would in all likelihood rise above one hundred dollars a barrel. This will cause a recession in several emerging markets.
Bangladesh: Caught in the Crossfire
This war is not an abstraction for Bangladesh. It is a complex crisis with many layers. The country receives around 110 LNG cargoes and over 7.5 million tonnes of crude and refined petroleum every year, which transit almost entirely through the very chokepoints under threat now. Nearly 90 per cent of Bangladesh’s imported oil travels through the Strait of Hormuz. In such a case, if this waterway closes and it does not work properly, it will affect Bangladesh. Prices of fuel and costs of power will rise. Industry insiders forecast supply chain disruptions in the months ahead.
This dent in remittances is perhaps more worrisome. It is estimated that over 7.5 million Bangladeshi men and women work as migrant workers in the Gulf countries – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman. The workers are the backbone of Bangladesh’s forex reserves, which have helped the country through trade deficits and debt paybacks for a long time. The conflict has already killed at least two Bangladeshis, 7 have been injured. Hundreds of flights to and from the Middle East have been cancelled as potential migrants are stranded with families facing financial uncertainty. A long war that deters Gulf states from hiring new foreign workers, or forces current workers to go home, would be disastrous.
The garment export sector in Bangladesh is facing pressures. The Middle East is located on the main shipping and air-freighter routes from South Asia to Europe and North America. Manufacturers’ cost, delayed shipment and uncertain demand from the regional markets of Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are on the rise as at least six international airlines have suspended their cargo operations from Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport, leaving over 1,200 tonnes of garments stranded. Near the battle grounds, Bangladesh’s European export artery, the Suez Canal, has a disconcerting role in the conflict. Further escalation, drawing in Egypt or disrupting shipping in the Red Sea, would considerably worsen the damage.
A Moment That Demands Sober Reckoning
In a war of this kind, there are no innocents. Pope Leo XIV, speaking to pilgrims in St Peter’s Square this very Sunday, asked for a stop to the bombs’ ”roar”. Billions share the same worry that he voiced. The defeat of one side would lead to years of conflict. Control of a vital resource – energy – is all about this. The Pentagon has launched surveillance operations and intelligence analysis. The US is now launching what many international lawyers are calling an illegal war of choice, which is a violation of the UN Charter. So does this precedent set for the international order based on rules.
For Bangladesh specifically, this war must be a wake-up call. The economy’s exposure of its three vulnerabilities, which are dependence on imported fossil fuels, income from remittances primarily from the Gulf, and exports through conflict-prone waterways, is painful. Instead of ‘Switching to renewables’, ‘increasing labour migration to East and South East Asia’, and ‘building deeper trading relations with non-Middle Eastern countries’, several policy options could be offered. This is now a strategic imperative which the crisis has made urgent.
Those who chose fire over diplomacy will be condemned by history after all, as Iran’s own foreign minister admitted when the deal was “in reach,” for days before the first bombs fell. The citizens of Iran, the Gulf, Bangladesh, and the world at large deserve better than to pay the price for consequential choices taken in Washington and Tel Aviv. What the world needs right now is not an enlarged target list but the courage to negotiate a peaceful settlement.
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