Turkey–Bulgaria Green Energy Cooperation And The Strategic Role Of Azerbaijan – Analysis

Introduction

The shift from hydrocarbon dependency to renewable energy sources not only serves Europe’s climate objectives but is also redefining the geopolitical configuration across the Balkans and the Black Sea region. 

Bulgaria and Türkiye occupy strategic positions as energy transit corridors linking producers in the Caspian and Middle East regions to European markets. For decades, this shared geography gave rise to competition rather than cooperation. Türkiye has long aspired to become a regional energy hub by leveraging its unique position between Europe and Asia, focusing on projects like TurkStream and the Southern Gas Corridor. Bulgaria, meanwhile, has been a key transit point for Russian gas pipelines entering Europe. (1) It operates “Balkan Stream” gas pipeline, an extension of TurkStream. (2) This rivalry was also shaped by differing geopolitical alignments and energy dependencies, with Bulgaria historically more reliant on Russian supplies and Türkiye seeking diversification through Azerbaijani and other sources.

However, the geopolitical landscape is shifting. The European Union’s accelerated push toward climate neutrality, the rising strategic value of renewables, and sanctions against Russia have collectively redirected attention toward green energy. Historically, cooperation between Bulgaria and Türkiye centered on gas infrastructure, notably TurkStream and the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP). But today, electricity, especially green electricity, has emerged as the new focus.

A major milestone in this evolving partnership came in April 2025, when Türkiye, Bulgaria, Azerbaijan, and Georgia signed a quadrilateral Memorandum of Understanding under the framework of the “Green Electricity Transmission and Trade” initiative. (3) The memorandum was preceded by a series of high-level meetings, beginning in August 2024 in Istanbul, where the energy ministers of Bulgaria and Türkiye laid the groundwork for this new phase of cooperation.

Key Milestones in the Formation of the Energy Partnership

The first step toward the eventual four-party agreement took place in August 2024 in Istanbul, when Bulgarian Energy Minister Vladimir Malinov held talks with Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar. (4) Their discussions focused on drafting an intergovernmental memorandum aimed at establishing a framework for the interconnection of electricity and gas networks, the development of renewable energy sources, and the promotion of energy efficiency. Among the strategic priorities outlined was the development of cross-border electricity infrastructure and the mobilization of private sector investment to support it.

Further discussions followed in November 2024 at the inaugural Istanbul Energy Forum. Held in a quadrilateral format with the participation of the energy ministers of Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Bulgaria, as well as Georgia’s First Deputy Prime Minister Levan Davitashvili, the forum placed green energy at the center of the agenda. (5) Key topics included progress on the Azerbaijan–Türkiye–Europe energy corridor via Nakhchivan, and the broader prospects for transmitting renewable electricity from the Caspian region and Central Asia to Europe via Georgian and Turkish territory. The meeting concluded with a consensus on the urgent need to take concrete, coordinated steps to deepen collaboration in this domain.

The process advanced further on February 7, 2025, in Istanbul, during the third deputy ministerial meeting of the four participating states. (6) The meeting reaffirmed mutual interest in expanding electricity exchange and finalized the draft Memorandum of Understanding. The document formalizes cooperation between the Ministry of Energy of Azerbaijan, the Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia, the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources of Türkiye, and the Ministry of Energy of Bulgaria on the transmission of green electricity.

Bulgaria: From Vulnerability to Strategic Advantage

Bulgaria is currently undergoing a pivotal stage in its energy transition. Geographically and politically located on the periphery of the European Union and the Balkan region, the country has long remained in the shadow of more influential Central and Western European states. In terms of energy supply and investment allocation, Bulgaria’s role was traditionally limited to that of a transit or auxiliary actor. This geographical position exacerbated the country’s vulnerability to external energy shocks—a weakness that became particularly evident following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and the subsequent surge in gas prices. (7)

However, this vulnerability is gradually transforming into a strategic advantage. Its advantageous geographic location—on the EU’s southern flank, with access to the Black Sea and situated at the crossroads between Europe, the Caucasus, and the Middle East—offers tangible opportunities to play a more prominent role in Europe’s evolving energy landscape, especially in the context of the continent-wide shift toward renewable energy. (8)

In this context, it is particularly significant that Bulgaria is adapting its national energy policy to the changing geopolitical and climatic realities. Its strategy targets a 27% renewable share by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050. (9) International investments, such as €50 million from the EBRD for a 237 MW solar plant, and domestic reforms are accelerating progress, with 249 renewable projects underway. (10)

This strategic reorientation is also supported by the structure of Bulgaria’s domestic energy mix, which is increasingly aligned with EU decarbonization goals. As of 2024, over 70% of the country’s electricity is generated from low-carbon sources. Nuclear power, primarily from the Kozloduy plant, accounts for around 42%, while coal, though declining, still provides about 22%. (11) Between January 1 and March 30, 2025, Bulgaria experienced a significant increase in electricity production, reaching 11.74 TWh-a 16.83% rise compared to the same period in 2024, according to data from the country’s electricity transmission system operator, ESO. (12) Electricity consumption also grew by 7.77%, totaling 11.14 TWh, resulting in net electricity exports of 0.6 TWh for the quarter. (13) Baseload power plants, including coal and nuclear facilities, contributed 9.62 TWh of electricity, marking an 18.4% increase from the previous year. (14) Renewable energy sources (RES) saw substantial growth as well, with electricity generated from renewables in the transmission network rising by 24.39% to 775.4 GWh, and in the distribution network increasing by 24.38% to 786 GWh. (15) This data highlights Bulgaria’s ongoing transition toward a more sustainable and diversified energy mix in early 2025.

Another important component in shaping Bulgaria’s new energy model is the “Greenabler” project, aimed at expanding and modernizing the national electricity transmission system. (16) In 2024, the Electricity System Operator (ESO) and the Ministry of Energy signed an agreement to launch the project’s first phase, financed with €65 million from the EU’s Modernisation Fund. The initiative will be implemented in two stages: the reconstruction of 720 km of existing transmission lines with an upgrade in voltage from 220 kV to 400 kV, and the modernization of related substations. (17) According to Bulgarian Energy Minister Vladimir Malinov, the project will not only increase the efficiency of the national grid but also accelerate the integration of renewable energy sources. According to Bulgarian Energy Minister Vladimir Malinov, the project will not only increase the efficiency of the national grid but also accelerate the integration of renewable energy sources. (18)

In this regard, energy cooperation between Bulgaria and Türkiye takes on particular importance within the broader framework of energy transformation. The implementation of a joint electricity transmission project is expected to enhance grid interconnectivity, modernize infrastructure, and facilitate Bulgaria’s deeper integration into the pan-European electricity system ENTSO-E. The Memorandum of Understanding envisages the import of green electricity from the Caspian region via Türkiye, enabling Bulgaria to strengthen both its national and Europe’s collective energy security, while simultaneously reducing dependence on traditional sources and suppliers.

Türkiye: Prospects for Becoming a Leader in the Green Energy Sector

Türkiye, for its part, is steadily consolidating its position as a key energy hub between the East and Europe, aiming to expand its influence beyond its traditional role as a transit country. Participation in the “Green Energy Corridor” initiative—together with Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Bulgaria—opens up new strategic opportunities for Ankara. Unlike earlier projects such as TANAP and TAP, where Türkiye primarily functioned as a conduit for natural gas transportation, the new initiative positions the country as a crucial link in the supply chain for renewable electricity to Europe. (19)

Türkiye has already made substantial progress in the field of renewable energy. Due to large-scale investments in solar and wind energy, the country reached its 2025 target for installed solar power capacity—19.6 GW—by the end of 2024, (20) well ahead of schedule. These achievements reflect both Türkiye’s considerable potential in the renewable energy sector and its long-term ambition to become a net exporter of green energy. Moreover, according to the Turkish Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, in the first quarter of 2025, approximately 30% of the country’s electricity production came from renewable sources. (21) Solar capacity surged from 16,700 MW in March 2024 to 21,620 MW by March 2025-a remarkable 129% year-on-year increase-while wind energy capacity grew from 12,082 MW to 13,098 MW, up 108% over the same period. (22) This growth aligns with Türkiye’s strategic goals of enhancing energy security, lowering its current account deficit, and cutting carbon emissions, supported by robust policy frameworks and increased investments in green infrastructure. Backed by state policy and regulatory reforms, the country is rapidly becoming a key regional actor in green energy development.

In this context, the Memorandum of Understanding behind the “Green Energy Corridor” could become a cornerstone of the region’s energy future. With its developed pipeline and grid infrastructure, Türkiye is well-positioned to become energy hub in the region and to export both gas and renewable electricity to Europe.

Opportunities and Challenges for Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan’s participation in the “Green Energy Corridor” initiative opens up new strategic opportunities in the renewable energy sector. In this context, Baku is deepening international cooperation and strengthening ties with regional partners. On May 2, 2025, Azerbaijani Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov met with his Romanian and Bulgarian counterparts in Istanbul to advance the Caspian–Black Sea–Europe Green Energy Corridor. (23) Talks with Romanian Minister SebastianBurduja focused on developing resilient infrastructure for green energy transit from the Caspian to Europe, while discussions with Bulgarian Minister Zhecho Stankov addressed progress in the Green Energy Corridor project.

These meetings underscore Azerbaijan’s rising role as a reliable energy partner for Southeastern Europe. The strategic importance of the Zangezur Corridor is also increasing, with Deputy Energy Minister Elnur Soltanov highlighting its potential as a key electricity export route to Europe during the 9th Global Baku Forum. (24) Integrating the Zangezur Corridor into the regional energy infrastructure will enhance Azerbaijan’s ability to export green electricity and solidify its position in Europe’s energy transition.

Nevertheless, political instability surrounding the Zangezur Corridor remains unresolved, with Armenian opposition and external pressures stalling negotiations and infrastructure development. In the long term, Armenia could also join the Green Energy Corridor project and benefit economically and energetically from its integration. However, this requires resolving political differences and fostering regional cooperation. 

Conclusion

The emerging cooperation between Türkiye and Bulgaria in the field of green energy represents a significant shift in regional dynamics and offers profound implications for the future energy landscape of Southeastern Europe and beyond. This partnership, formalized through the quadrilateral Memorandum of Understanding with Azerbaijan and Georgia, marks the evolution from traditional hydrocarbon-based relations to a forward-looking collaboration centered on renewable electricity transmission.Together, these nations are forging a new energy framework that not only strengthens regional energy security but also aligns with Europe’s broader climate goals. 

For Bulgaria, this initiative transforms its peripheral vulnerability into strategic advantage, positioning the country as a potential regional hub for sustainable energy in the Balkans. Through modernized infrastructure projects like “Greenabler” and increased integration with the European electricity system, Bulgaria is actively working to achieve its climate goals while enhancing its energy security and reducing dependence on traditional suppliers.

Türkiye, with its rapidly expanding renewable energy capacity and ambitious green hydrogen initiatives, is transcending its historical role as a transit country to become a key player in the emerging low-carbon energy market. The Green Energy Corridor offers Ankara the opportunity to leverage its geographic position and existing infrastructure to facilitate the export of renewable electricity to European markets, thereby strengthening its geopolitical significance.

Azerbaijan stands to benefit from this partnership by diversifying its energy exports beyond traditional hydrocarbons and establishing itself as a reliable supplier of clean energy resources. The potential integration of the Zangezur Corridor, despite current political challenges, could further enhance regional energy integration and create effective export routes for green electricity.

This four-party collaboration represents more than just an energy project – it embodies a strategic reconfiguration of regional relations driven by climate imperatives and European energy transition goals. By fostering interdependence and mutual benefit through green energy cooperation, the initiative has the potential to contribute to regional stability, economic development, and environmental sustainability.

Endnotes:

1.  Kandilarov, E., “Bulgaria external relations briefing: The Place and Role of Bulgaria in the Gas Energy Security of Central and Eastern European Region”, China CEE-Institute Weekly Briefing, Vol. 79, No. 4, December, 2024, pp.11, Available at:https://china-cee.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/2024er12_Bulgaria.pdf
2. Ibid
3.  Ministry of Energy of the republic of Azerbaijan, “Memorandum of Understanding was signed on Azerbaijan-Georgia-Türkiye-Bulgaria Green Energy Corridor”, April 4, 2025, Available at:https://minenergy.gov.az/en/xeberler-arxivi/00496
4.  Report.az, Türkiye, Bulgaria preparing co-op memo in energy sector, August 7, 2024, Available at:https://report.az/en/energy/turkiye-bulgaria-preparing-co-op-memo-in-energy-sector/
5.  Apa.az, Energy ministers of Azerbaijan, Turkiye, Georgia and Bulgaria meet in Istanbul, November 22, 2024, Available at:https://en.apa.az/energy-and-industry/energy-ministers-of-azerbaijan-turkiye-georgia-and-bulgaria-meet-in-istanbul-453960
6.  Report.az, Azerbaijan agrees with 3 countries on draft memorandum for green energy exports, February 8, 2025, Available at:https://report.az/en/energy/azerbaijan-agrees-with-3-countries-on-draft-memorandum-for-green-energy-exports/
7.  Kandilarov, E., “Bulgaria external relations briefing: The Place and Role of Bulgaria in the Gas Energy Security of Central and Eastern European Region”, China CEE-Institute Weekly Briefing, Vol. 79, No. 4, December, 2024, pp.11, Available at:https://china-cee.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/2024er12_Bulgaria.pdf
8.  Ceenergynews.com, Bulgaria to become key transit country ensuring gas supply to South-Eastern Europe from 2025, March 11, 2024, Available at:https://ceenergynews.com/oil-gas/bulgaria-to-become-key-transit-country-ensuring-gas-supply-to-south-eastern-europe-from-2025/
9.  Borgenproject.org, Renewable Energy in Bulgaria, January 24, 2025, Available at:https://borgenproject.org/renewable-energy-in-bulgaria/
10. Ibid
11.  Lowcarbonpower.org, Electricity in Bulgaria in 2024, 2024, Available at:https://lowcarbonpower.org/region/Bulgaria
12.  Serbia-energy.eu, Bulgaria sees significant increase in electricity production and renewable energy share in Q1 2025, April 4,2025, Available at:https://serbia-energy.eu/bulgaria-sees-significant-increase-in-electricity-production-and-renewable-energy-share-in-q1-2025/
13. Ibid
14. Ibid
15. Ibid
16.  Smart-energy.com, Bulgarian transmission modernisation project GREENABLER gets first funding, January 2,2025, Available at:https://www.smart-energy.com/finance-investment/bulgarian-transmission-modernisation-project-greenabler-gets-first-funding/
17. Ibid
18. Ibid
19.  Balkangreenenergynews.com, Türkiye pushing against rivals for transmission of green electricity to EU, April 7, 2025, Available at:https://balkangreenenergynews.com/Türkiye-pushing-against-rivals-for-transmission-of-green-electricity-to-eu/
20.  Ember-energy.org, Türkiye surpasses 2025 solar target as capacity doubles in 2.5 years, January  28, 2025, Available at:https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/turkiye-surpasses-2025-solar-target-as-capacity-doubles-in-2-5-years/
21.  Aa.com.tr, Türkiye’s electricity generation from renewables reaches nearly half of total production in Q1 2025,  April 3, 2025, Available at:https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/electricity/turkiyes-electricity-generation-from-renewables-reaches-nearly-half-of-total-production-in-q1-2025/48367
22. Ibid
23.  Ministry of Energy of the republic of Azerbaijan, “Energy Minister met with Romanian and Bulgarian counterparts in Türkiye”,  May 2, 2025, Available at:https://minenergy.gov.az/en/xeberler-arxivi/00519
24.  Trend.az, Azerbaijan expects increase in gas supplies through SGC – deputy minister,  June 17, 2022, Available at:https://en.trend.az/azerbaijan/business/3609993.html