At SCO, Indo-Pak Rivalry Thrives While Dialogue Withers – OpEd
Two rivals, one stage, zero dialogue. The arch-rivals, hostile belligerents, and sworn enemies—India and Pakistan, as defined by domestic and international media—are set to come face to face at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Islamabad on 15-16 October 2024.
Once again, Pakistan and India will share a multilateral diplomatic platform, yet both have chosen to deny the significance of this opportunity for dialogue. Both countries have rejected the possibility of talks on a forum designed for multilateral cooperation. The current wave of enmity between the two countries stems from India’s abrogation of Articles 370 and 35-A of the Indian constitution, which revoked the special status of Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019. Since then, Pakistan has maintained that relations with India can only normalize if India restores the region’s special status. Meanwhile, India continues to accuse Pakistan of cross-border terrorism, without presenting concrete evidence. This back-and-forth between the two states has only fueled their rivalry, leaving dialogue a distant possibility.
The admission of rivals India and Pakistan to SCO, a multilateral cooperation forum, is a unique case as it does not offer mediation or reconciliation to resolve bilateral issues that impact regional geopolitics. However, the SCO summit is a platform for multilateral and bilateral opportunities in defense and security, economic cooperation, enhancing trade, infrastructure development, and combating climate change.
In the past, Pakistan has taken the initiative to extend an olive branch towards India at various multilateral platforms. However, these gestures of peace have often been met with indifference from India. A decade ago, in 2014, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif attended the oath-taking ceremony of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his first tenure. In 2015, during the SCO Summit in Ufa, Russia, both premiers agreed to issue a bilateral statement. However, India called off the subsequent talks between the National Security Advisors, citing Pakistan’s emphasis on discussing Kashmir, which soured any path for dialogue.
In 2016, after the terrorist attack on the Pathankot Airbase, Pakistan offered a joint investigation to resolve the issue of cross-border terrorism. However, the initiative did not gain traction. In March 2016, an Indian spy, Kulbhushan Yadav, an officer in the Research and Analysis Wing and a member of the Indian Navy, was arrested in Mastung, Balochistan, Pakistan. Yadav admitted to funding anarchic elements, inciting youth against the state, and maligning Pakistan internationally.
In 2019, following a dogfight between the Indian and Pakistani Air Forces, Pakistan decided to release the captured Indian Wing Commander Abhinandan as a peace gesture. Wing Commander Abhinandan’s aircraft was shot down, and local civilians captured him, tricking him into believing he had landed in India. Despite this gesture, India, hiding its embarrassment, rejected mediation offers and peace dialogues between both countries. The SCO summit in 2024 reflects a continuation of this pattern. Aside from their attendance at multilateral events, all channels of bilateral diplomatic communication between India and Pakistan remain frozen.
The upcoming visit of India’s Minister for External Affairs, S. Jaishankar, to Pakistan marks the first such visit in nine years, the last being by Sushma Swaraj in 2015 for the Heart of Asia Conference in Islamabad. Similarly, Pakistan’s former Foreign Minister, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, visited India for the SCO summit in Goa in May 2024—the first such visit in 12 years. This long gap in diplomatic engagement between these regional players and neighbors has resulted in geopolitical competition rather than cooperation. Once again, both India and Pakistan are missing out on the opportunity for regional cooperation that the SCO forum provides.
India and Pakistan often use their presence at multilateral forums to assert their regional influence rather than engage in meaningful dialogue. Mr. Jaishankar refuted the idea of bilateral talks with Pakistan during his visit to Islamabad for the SCO summit. He is attending the summit in response to an invitation extended to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Reciprocating this animosity, Pakistan also declined prospects of bilateral engagement with India through the SCO platform. This reflects a lack of willingness on both sides to prioritize regional peace, security, and stability.
The 2024 SCO summit in Islamabad will focus on three major agendas: regional security—particularly concerning Afghanistan—economic cooperation, and climate change. These are issues that concern both rival states, yet they refuse to engage diplomatically, undermining the purpose of regional cooperation platforms. As long as India and Pakistan maintain a stalemate, regional security remains a distant proposition. Economic cooperation will depend on the relationships the two states hold with other member states, and combating climate change will become even more challenging.
The ongoing deadlock between India and Pakistan at the SCO serves as a reminder of how bilateral disputes can stall regional progress. Despite the tremendous potential of the SCO to foster connectivity, economic growth, and security cooperation, these opportunities remain out of reach as long as the two countries prioritize their rivalry over collaboration. Their inability to engage in meaningful dialogue weakens not only the SCO’s initiatives but also its standing as a platform for resolving larger regional challenges. The responsibility for breaking this deadlock lies primarily with India and Pakistan. If they continue to allow their differences to dominate the agenda, they risk missing out on opportunities that would benefit not only themselves but the entire region. However, should they find a way to manage their differences, the SCO could emerge as a powerful force in promoting regional stability and development. Ultimately, real progress requires a willingness to look beyond short-term national interests and work toward shared regional goals.
