Most political and military observers agree that the “head of the snake of fundamentalism and terrorism is in Tehran,” and with the support and coordination of the Iranian regime, Hamas launched an attack on Israel on October 7. The denial of the rights of the Palestinian people by extremist factions in Israel, longstanding allies of the Iranian regime over the past four decades, has been the catalyst for this crisis.
The war in Gaza is entering its second month, and the military defeat of Hamas is definitive. However, the Israeli army’s actions, involving the killing and displacement of Gazans, have shifted the international political balance to Israel’s detriment.
Large demonstrations, with hundreds of thousands of participants, are being held worldwide in support of the Palestinian people and against war and massacre. Many countries have severed their relations with Israel. However, the situation in Iran is different. The Iranian regime is well aware that the people of Iran are opposed to warmongering and crisis creation by the clerics and the Revolutionary Guards in the region, and any protests turn into a challenge against the government.
The Iranian regime, on one hand, seeks to exploit the benefits of this crisis, especially through the massacre of innocent people in Gaza and children by Israel. On the other hand, it attempts not to get entangled in this crisis and avoid putting itself at risk. This regime has reached a crossroads that could lead to either losing support for Hamas or losing the rule of the clerics. However, the Iranian regime, being highly cunning and experienced in crisis creation and terrorism, is accustomed to playing a double game from one pillar to another. Faced with the danger of a social revolution, it currently prefers to be an observer, waiting for an opportunity to spark another crisis. The escalation of tension at the Lebanese border may be limited, or another front may open up, dragging Hezbollah, linked to the Iranian regime, into this war.
Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards pursue several objectives in creating this crisis.
The primary goal is to prevent a revolution in Iran. So far, they have prevented it through ruthless massacres and exploiting the COVID-19 situation. However, they have never been able to eliminate the factors and motivations driving this revolution. The increase in executions domestically, terrorist operations abroad, and targeting the life of a prominent Spanish politician supporting the opposition to the regime are all part of Khamenei’s optimal use of the policy of inaction, appeasement, and war in Gaza.
The second objective is to continue the regime’s contraction and engineer the upcoming elections. They have already initiated it by disqualifying representatives from rival factions within the government under the current conditions.
Mokhtari, the Friday Prayer Imam supporting Khamenei’s government in Birjand, says, “We are still vulnerable in the elections… Firstly, we need to reach a point where the revolutionary movement no longer stops every 4 or 8 years, and a group of foreign mercenaries doesn’t bring in votes. Then, God willing, we can empower the Middle East region and Islamic countries with this resistance front and rescue them.”
Khamenei also wants to complete the nuclear project, intimidate the countries in the region, place them under his influence, and subsequently engage with Biden as a regional power.
The proposed plan by Arab countries in the region, calling for the gathering of all Palestinians under the umbrella of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), is a positive initiative to counter the adventurous and destabilizing policies of the Iranian regime.
The Wall Street Journal, in a report dated Saturday, November 10, stated: Arab and Muslim countries in their meeting in Saudi Arabia have demanded the gathering of all Palestinian factions under the umbrella of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), an organization currently under the leadership of Mahmoud Abbas on the West Bank.
The statement, which The Wall Street Journal claims to have seen but has not yet been published, asserts that the Palestinian Liberation Organization is the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. It calls on Palestinian factions and forces to unite under its umbrella through a national partnership.
This draft proposal also calls for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and suggests Saudi Arabia taking the lead in a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians.
This is while Raisi, upon returning from Saudi Arabia, directly confronted the positions of the Palestinian Prime Minister and Islamic countries, as well as the global consensus on ending the war and achieving peace in the Middle East. He emphasized the opposition of the Ayatollah regime to a two-state solution.
War, massacre, and the continued denial of the rights of the Palestinian people are not the solution to the Israel-Palestine crisis. Any plan or proposal for resolving the Palestinian issue that does not curb the influence of the Iranian regime and its proxy groups is destined to fail.
The Iranian regime has gained the most benefits from extremist policies in Israel and the appeasement policies of the United States and Europe. The occupation of Iraq was a costly and bloody experience for the United States, ending up as the biggest political and military folly that served the interests of the Iranian regime, facilitating its influence in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, and Palestine.
The key solution to the crisis in the Middle East lies in peace and friendship between the people of Palestine and Israel, along with the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. However, the Iranian regime and extremist factions in Israel obstruct this path.
Instead of engaging in appeasement and courting the Iranian authorities, the United States and Europe should decisively confront them. This decisiveness begins by designating the Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization, the executive arm of the Iranian regime involved in suppressing human rights violations in Iran and promoting terrorism and instability in the region. This should be accompanied by political and diplomatic sanctions, recalling ambassadors, closing espionage nests, and countering the regime’s covert operations.
However, these actions alone are not sufficient. Supporting a regime change policy in Iran by recognizing the opposition movement led by Maryam Rajavi, a long-time friend of the Palestinian liberation movement, is the key to unravelling this puzzle.