Give Ukraine Peace A Chance – OpEd

“If you really want to stop fighting, you need to stop supplying weapons…It will be over within a few weeks. That’s it.” Russian President Putin’s statement in a two-hour long interview with the American journalist Tucker Carlson. Putin has held this belief since the conflict began in February 2022.

Earlier US former President Trump’s suggestion that he could end the Russia-Ukraine war within a day if he returns to the White House again, “If I’m President, I will have that war settled in one day, 24 hours” and the Ukrainian president described the statement as “very dangerous.” But the man ‘Zelensky’ who should be really talking of peace in the interest of Ukraine’s future by contrast, continues to insist there can be no peace deal that does not see the removal of all Russian forces from landsthey have captured from Ukraine since 2014, including Crimea. So, is peace in the air?

The little-known truth: “The war could have ended in the spring of 2022 if Ukraine had agreed to neutrality. Russia’s goal was to put pressure on us so that we would be neutral. This was the main thing for them: They were ready to end the war if we accepted neutrality, like Finland once did. And for us to make a commitment that we will not join NATO. This is the main thing.”  Quoting Arakhamia, who currently is the leader of the ruling party’s faction in the Ukrainian parliament and a top advisor to Zelensky. “After we returned from Istanbul, Boris Johnson visited Kyiv and said that we should not sign anything with the Russians and ‘let’s just fight’.” At the end of the interview with Carlson, Putin also left a parting message that “There are options (for peace talks) if there is a will.” 

The Biden administration, and the NATO alliance, have repeatedly stressed Ukraine will not be coerced into any agreement with Russia: “Nothing about Ukraine, without Ukraine”. NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg, also speaking at Davos, said “We just must stand by Ukraine. At some stage, Russia will understand that they are paying too high a price and sit down and agree to some kind of just peace – but we need to stand by Ukraine.” Of late US and NATO are coming to realise that it is difficult to achieve their dream strategic defeat on Russia on the battlefield, if possible, at all. So, who is paying a higher price for the Ukraine War?

Ukrainians for Peace?

Hope the realisation has set in among the Ukrainians the real sufferers of this avoidable war. Likely, talks are already taking place in secret as there are regular contacts between the Russian and Ukrainian militaries, otherwise, the exchange of prisoners and civilians would not have been possible.

Central to this is the political survival of President Zelensky who, once a war hero, may increasingly be seen as an illusionary advocate for a military solution that could risk the future of Ukraine. However, the big question is whether the Biden Administration and NATO will bite the Peace bullet. The high probability is that the Biden administration intends to keep the conflict alive at least until November while its focus will be on West Asian developments that have a direct bearing on the president’s candidacy in the November elections.

Zelensky is pursuing the seemingly unreasonable goal of wanting to defeat Russia with another major offensive this year by preparing to recruit an additional 500,000 Ukrainians into the armed forces forcibly. He does not have the time to train the new recruits and would risk the lives of those recruits without any chance of success.

It may be soon that Zelensky may face serious resistance to his plans among Ukraine’s exhausted, poverty-stricken, and war-battered population. Ukrainians may no longer be prepared to accept another year of death and destruction and they may refuse to let their sons be sacrificed for the ill-conceived attempt to defeat Russia. Zelensky may soon face increasing resistance within the Ukrainian army to his war plans and a crisis of confidence in the army may also occur at some stage.

The Ukrainians must have also realized that for the US, Israel, the Gaza war, and the wider stability in the Middle East are far more important to than Ukraine. And the Ukrainians will be aware that it is increasingly likely that the next president of the USA could be Donald Trump who may reach a political settlement with Russia while ignoring Ukraine. 

The US Global War Mongerer has had its own narratives from time to time latest being Biden claiming to be the saviours of the Palestinians but supplying weapons to Israel! Famous ones being “Manifest Destiny”- The philosophy drove 19th-century US territorial expansion, the “Monroe Doctrine” was an American narrative about why America should be responsible for half the globe, the “Arsenal of Democracy” was a narrative about justifying American entry into World War II. Much more recently, the “Global War on Terror” was an American narrative about justifying its continued involvement across the planet in pursuit of elimination of Terrorist threats to the US and its citizens. 

Putin has been ever willing to talk but for the West and Zelensky. Putin’s prime goals will be to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, to ensure Russia’s access to the Black Sea. “Stop supplying weapons, see how Putin reacts and if talks do not commence and Russian offensive continues the US -NATO can resume supplying weapons.” Try and give a ‘Chance to Peace’ as the West will have nothing to lose but will have a moral victory.

Like Churchill, Zelensky deserves a place in history for his actions during the war period. The Ukrainian leader showed great physical courage by staying in Kyiv and was seen with fighting troops on the front war zone when it appeared that the Russian Army would seize the capital. But physical courage is not the only thing Zelensky will need to steer his country out of its current conflict and needs to think of the future otherwise, like Churchill will face defeat in elections as and when held. Finally, Ukrainian President Zelensky has to make the final ‘Peace Call’.