By Lisdey Espinoza Pedraza
The Brexit referendum results provoked an unprecedented upheaval and political meltdown in the United Kingdom; as a result, in March 2017, the United Kingdom became the first country in history to invoke Article 50 of the Treaty of the European Union and in setting the exit of this organisation in motion. It was only last week, though, that Nigel Farage, of the drivers and strong supporters behind the country’s decision to leave the EU, spoke in favour of holding a second referendum. This is now an entirely new idea, as it is something was first proposed by the Liberal Democrats just days after the results of the June 2016 referendum became public. The difference lies in the motivation to hold this second referendum, while for the Liberal Democrats is to give citizens another chance to stay in the EU, for people like Nigel Farage and the millionaire Aaron Banks the second chance would confirm the support for a clean break with the European organisation.
Is a second referendum even likely to happen? This is a very hard question to answer as it is only the Parliament who can authorise it after a proposal has been put forward by the government itself or by a coalition of opposition parties. This is a highly politicised decision with too much at stake and judging by the political conditions prevalent in the United Kingdom at present, I do not see any politician willing to play this game.
Both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn have ruled out such a possibility as this would mean a breach of trust with the citizens, and the United Kingdom might see itself engulfed in a “neverendum”, first coined by Quebec, where ever since the province has had two referendums to break away from Canada, the campaign for independence has not stopped. Allowing a second referendum in Britain may well reinforce the idea that the establishment will just keep holding referendums until they get the result they want. Therefore, it is highly unlikely Britain political establishment will agree to hold another referendum.
Regardless of what the people feelings on the result are, this was the vote of most of the population in Britain and as such, it deserved to be respected. Attempting to reverse the exit process by calling to a second referendum would further wound the state of democracy in Britain. Democracy is, by definition, the rule of the people, even if the Leave Campaign had been won with just one vote, the results still stand. The victory, however, was carried out with over a million votes, in one of the largest voting turnouts in contemporary British history, and it would be a travesty to disregard such a difference as unimportant. Holding a second referendum would be making a mockery of the democratic exercise and the mandate the people gave their rulers on that day. It would further split the country and weaken Britain’s negotiating stance with the EU as if the result does not change, this would shatter all their hopes for a Soft Brexit deal.
It is also important to remember that there is no evidence whatsoever that supports the notion that if a second referendum is held this year or early next year at the latest, the outcome would be any different. Citizens are becoming more and more sceptical of Brexit talks and of the ability of the establishment to deal successfully with the exit deal, this does not mean, however, that Brexiteers have in any way changed their mind. There was also a very clear age division in the results of the referendum, 75% of the elderly voted to leave, while 75% of the young adults voted to remain. There is no evidence as well that either of these age groups have changed their minds. Therefore, should a second reference even take place, the result may stay the same. Such a division also poses an important dilemma: democracy is the greatest social equaliser in contemporary societies. Placing a weight on someone’s vote that accounts for their age, income level, education, social status, geographical location, etc. will eventually destroy this sense of equality and with it, democracy itself.
The reality is that there is very little support for a second referendum to even be considered seriously by the Parliament. The only ones who has publicly voiced their support for it are the Liberal Democrats, who have nothing to lose since they are only a minor factor in the House of Commons with 12 seats. It is also unclear if such a process could even be reversed. There are two likely scenarios: All EU members would have to agree to Britain’s revocation of the Article 50, although one vote would be enough to veto this process; and secondly, Britain could unilaterally withdraw the Article 50 notification and take its case to the European Court of Justice, both scenarios would take the country and the whole continent into completely unchartered territories.
Overall the one that has been hurt the less has been the EU, while it is true that Brexit has weakened the EU, the panic and shock have been greater than the actual damage. Many predicted several countries following suit and triggering Article 50. However, it had become evident that the lack of planning and complete disarray shown by the British government has served as a crude example to those that in the past were considering leaving the organisation. The disintegration of a political system does not necessarily start with the desire of leaders to do so, but rather with their own mediocrity and inability to pull themselves out from the swamps of their own political waste and mess.
This article was published by Modern Diplomacy