Unchecked Arms In Afghanistan: A Threat To Regional Security – OpEd
By Ameer Zaman
The 2021 withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan marked a significant turning point in the region’s geopolitics, but it also left behind a dangerous legacy—an arsenal of modern weaponry that has now found its way into the hands of non-state actors. Pakistan, which shares a long and porous border with Afghanistan, has borne the brunt of this arms proliferation. The security implications for Pakistan and the broader region are dire, and there is an urgent need for a coordinated diplomatic push to address this overlooked fallout of the NATO exit.
According to credible estimates, over $7.2 billion worth of NATO-standard weaponry, vehicles, and equipment were abandoned in Afghanistan as Western forces withdrew. This unprecedented surplus of arms has not remained confined within Afghan borders. Reports from international institutions, including the Geneva-based Small Arms Survey, substantiate Pakistan’s claims that these weapons have been smuggled across the Durand Line into Pakistani territory. The influx has empowered terrorist groups such as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), and others, elevating both the lethality and frequency of their operations.
The Small Arms Survey report reveals a telling trend. Between 2005 and 2021, approximately 316,270 small arms worth $512 million were exported to Afghanistan. While these weapons were originally intended to support the former Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), the rapid collapse of the Afghan state and the subsequent Taliban takeover resulted in the capture of these arms by the very actors that NATO sought to eliminate. Worse, the report highlights the Taliban’s weak command over the weapons, suggesting many of their fighters are involved in illicit arms trading—some of it transnational in nature.
The implications for Pakistan’s internal security are deeply troubling. The past two years have seen a marked resurgence of terror incidents in Pakistan’s tribal areas, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Balochistan. These attacks have demonstrated not just renewed terrorist resolve, but also increased tactical sophistication and destructive power. This is no coincidence; modern assault rifles, night-vision devices, advanced IED components, and even anti-armor weapons—once restricted to NATO forces—have now been recovered from arrested or killed militants operating within Pakistan. This shift in capabilities is transforming the asymmetric warfare landscape in favor of insurgent groups.
This proliferation of arms raises a fundamental question: who bears responsibility? While Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government claims ignorance or lack of control over illicit arms movement, the international community cannot absolve itself of accountability. The United States, in particular, must recognize that its decision to abandon military hardware without an adequate containment or recovery plan has destabilized an already fragile region. The long-term fallout of this negligence goes far beyond Afghanistan’s borders.
In this context, Pakistan’s repeated calls for international oversight and corrective action are not only justified but urgent. Islamabad has raised the issue at multiple regional forums, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), but meaningful progress has yet to materialize. The West, preoccupied with conflicts in Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific, seems largely indifferent to the blowback of its Afghan misadventure.
Pakistan must now spearhead a diplomatic offensive, urging international bodies such as the United Nations, the European Union, and NATO to take ownership of the weapons left behind. A multilateral mechanism should be proposed to trace, identify, and retrieve or neutralize advanced military hardware that is now in the possession of militant groups. This should include technical assistance, intelligence sharing, and funding for Pakistan’s counter-terrorism operations, which are increasingly bearing the burden of a Western security lapse.
Moreover, the international community should press the de facto Afghan authorities to implement stringent arms control protocols. Taliban officials must be held accountable for the cross-border movement of weapons and the harboring of terrorists who use Afghan soil to launch attacks against neighboring states. While diplomatic recognition remains a contested issue, functional engagement on security and arms proliferation is essential to prevent a broader regional crisis.
In conclusion, the unchecked circulation of leftover NATO arms in Afghanistan represents a serious threat to Pakistan’s national security and regional stability. The rise in deadly attacks by increasingly well-armed militants is not a coincidence but a consequence of geopolitical oversight. It is time for the international community to recognize its role in this emerging threat and take decisive steps to mitigate its impact. For Pakistan, a sustained diplomatic and strategic response is not just necessary—it is imperative for its survival and sovereignty.
