2025 In Review: Trump’s Controversial Threat Sparks Shift In Nigeria’s Security Landscape – OpEd

The year 2025 was unlike any other year. Despite the measure of success achieved in the economic reforms embarked upon by the Tinubu administration, the year will be largely defined by blatant threats issued by US President Donald Trump, who designated Nigeria as a “Country of Particular Concern” on account of alleged genocide against a section of the Christian population. For the first time in the history of the nation, a foreign power, the United States of America, threatened military action in the event the government failed to rein in Islamist militants accused of genocide against Christians. Furthermore, Trump threatened to cut all US aid while ordering military preparations for potential intervention. He described the situation as an “existential threat” to Christianity. Trump’s outbursts and capacious harangues about genocide in Nigeria have brought relations between the two countries to an all-time low, putting the country’s security crisis under international scrutiny. 

Apparently Trump was reacting to a Fox News report on violence in Nigeria and aligned with advocacy from US evangelicals and Republican lawmakers, including Sen. Ted Cruz, who have highlighted attacks on Christians by groups like Boko Haram and ISWAP.

Nigerians were shell-shocked by Trump’s outburst, and even the government retreated into its shell. There was no immediate response from the Nigerian government as it worked quietly behind the scenes to recalibrate the US threats. Thereafter, the federal government rejected the claims, emphasizing constitutional protections for all faiths and denying a “Christian genocide.” The government reiterated that violence by armed groups affects Muslims and Christians alike, often tied to broader issues like banditry, resource conflicts, and insurgency rather than targeted religious persecution. At the same time, the federal government welcomed US assistance against terrorism but opposed any violation of its sovereignty, suggesting diplomatic talks instead.

The security situation is undeniably complicated, defying a single narrative that is lightly pushed. Both faiths have been targeted by Islamist militants and bandits. Since 2020, several armed factions have killed over 1,300 people, displacing many villages, farmers, and creating food shortages, but this is not a one-sided religious genocide.

Expectedly, Trump’s statements have sparked alarm in Nigeria and debate in the US, with some viewing them as politically motivated to appeal to the evangelical base. Nigerians were divided on the planned US military action, with many urging restraint, saying a US-led attack could further exacerbate the security crisis.

Later a high-powered government delegation led by the National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, and the Chief of Defence Staff, General Olufemi Oluyede, visited the United States of America, where the delegation met with members of the US Congress and the US Defense Secretary, Pete Hesgeth. The meeting highlighted the current security crisis, seeking US cooperation and support. Part of the outcome of the US engagement includes the establishment of a joint task force between Nigeria and the US. Also on the cards are discussions for a Trump-Tinubu meeting.

If anything, Trump’s bluster and bluff have helped reset the security landscape, as President Bola Tinubu has swung into action to contain the threats and to demonstrate the government’s resolve in finding a lasting solution to the security challenges. Already Tinubu has introduced far-reaching emergency measures aimed at curbing the burgeoning security challenge. State policing has returned to the forefront. In September 2025, he announced plans to create state police, citing the need to strengthen security across the country. He directed the National Assembly to review laws allowing states to establish their own police forces. This move is part of his efforts to address rising insecurity, including banditry, kidnapping, and terrorism. In addition, Tinubu has approved firearms for the newly established forest guards. 

The sudden resignation of the Minister of Defence Mohammed Abubakar Badaru, on health reasons and his replacement by the erstwhile Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Musa, is unconnected with the US demands for more effective handling of the security situation. 

With mounting pressure from the US, even the Senate has acted with a renewed sense of urgency, judging by the decision of the Senate President, Godswill Akpabio, to grill the erstwhile Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Musa, during a ministerial screening. Akpabio rejected moves by Senator Sani Musa, a senator representing Niger East, who proposed that General Musa be made to “bow and go” in the usual Senate style. Miffed by that suggestion, Akpabio demurred, saying, “Even Donald Trump is on our neck… and you stand up and say he should take a bow… with over 200 Nigerian children in the bush kidnapped and being tortured?” At the end of the day, Gen. Musa was grilled for several hours, and he gave a good account of himself, shedding more light on the security challenge.

Be that as it may, critics have accused the Northern governors of treating the security situation with kid gloves and cozying up with bandits, arguing that their lackluster approach to the security crisis has further emboldened the bandits and terrorists and helped exacerbate insecurity in the region. Against the background of threats issued by President Trump, the Northern governors quickly convened a meeting in Kaduna, where they pledged to contribute N1b each monthly to a security fund meant to address the burgeoning security crisis in the north.

Now there seems to be a thaw in the strained US-Nigeria relationship, as a delegation from the United States Congress visited Abuja recently, where they met with the National Security Adviser, Malam Nuhu Ribadu. The visit follows recent high-level security talks held in Washington. The delegation included Representatives Mario Díaz-Balart, Norma Torres, Scott Franklin, Juan Ciscomani, and Riley Moore, who are in Nigeria on a fact-finding mission.

Discussions focused on strengthening bilateral cooperation in counterterrorism, intelligence sharing, and regional stability. Ribadu reaffirmed Nigeria’s commitment to security sector reforms, while the US lawmakers pledged continued support and collaboration. Both sides agreed to sustain dialogue to advance shared security priorities.

Meanwhile, the insecurity crisis remains a major problem. Nigeria recorded 4,672 incidents and 6,800 fatalities in the first half of 2025, representing a 19% increase in deaths compared to the same period in 2024.

The humanitarian crisis continued to spike due to the activities of bandits and terrorists. Over 450,000 people were displaced, and 638 villages were sacked by bandits in Zamfara State. For instance, Zamfara State emerged as the deadliest flashpoint, with 1,088 fatalities and 1,755 abductions.

Also, kidnappings and abductions surged by 30% year-on-year, with 72% of reported kidnapping cases occurring in the Northwest region. There was a spike in mass school abductions in November, attributed to Trump’s bellicose rhetoric. 24 students abducted from Government Girls College Maga, Kebbi State, have secured their freedom. The 100 Nigerian schoolchildren abducted last month from St. Mary’s Catholic School in Papiri have finally returned home after their release over the weekend. Yet more than 150 others, including teachers, remain in captivity.

So far the economic prognosis remains positive. The IMF has revised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast upward to 3.9% for 2025, citing higher oil production and stronger investor confidence. The World Bank projects Nigeria’s economy to grow 3.98% in 2025, driven by non-oil sectors. 

Despite growth, Nigeria’s economy still faces challenges, including inflation, infrastructure deficits, and a reliance on oil exports. The government aims to diversify the economy and achieve 7% annual growth, but structural reforms are needed to achieve this goal. CBN announced that foreign reserves have crossed the $46 billion mark for the first time in six years. It is now the fourth-highest on the African continent. 

For the first time in over a decade, Nigeria has overshot its OPEC quota for three consecutive months and is set to do the same for the fourth month, producing an average of 1.7 million barrels per day. Besides, crude oil theft has been reduced to less than 10,000 barrels per day, a sixteen-year low, from a high of 400,000 BPD four years ago.

The Nigerian Stock Exchange rose above the 130,000 All-Share Index for the first time ever, with a total market capitalisation of ₦84.262 trillion. The economy expanded by $67 billion, moving Nigeria’s GDP from a ₦269.29 trillion economy on May 29, 2023, to ₦372.8 trillion today. Between January and August 2025, non-oil tax revenue was ₦20.59 trillion, a 40.5% increase from the ₦14.6 trillion recorded in the corresponding period in 2024.

Nigeria’s non-oil exports surged to a record N9.2 trillion in the first nine months of 2025, rising 48% from N6.2 trillion recorded over the same period in 2024, according to Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Even so, Nigeria’s headline inflation rate continued its downward trend, dropping to 14.45% year-on-year in November 2025, down from 16.05% recorded in October 2025, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

Again, the naira has stabilized and is now below ₦1500 to the US dollar. Moreover, there’s been a record trade surplus. Nigeria’s trade surplus rose in Q2 to ₦7.46 trillion, up from ₦5.17 trillion in Q1. What’s more, Fitch and S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s economy to a Stable B. 

The two major signature infrastructure projects of the Tinubu administration are ongoing as scheduled. The projects are the ₦13 trillion 1,068-kilometer Illela-Sokoto-Badagry Superhighway and the ₦15 trillion 750-kilometer Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, currently under construction. Also, the 37.9-kilometer Bodo-Bonny Coastal Road with 11 bridges in Rivers State is nearing completion. This road project connects Bonny Island to the mainland. The project is part of a tripartite agreement between the Federal Government, Nigeria LNG, and Julius Berger Nigeria Plc and is expected to boost economic development and integration in the region.

Still, Nigeria’s total public debt stock is approximately N152.398 trillion as of June 2025, with the Federal Government accounting for N141.08 trillion (92.6%) and subnational governments owing N11.32 trillion (7.4%).

The Tinubu administration has taken substantial loans since May 2023, including $6.45 billion from the World Bank in October 2024; $500 million from the Africa Development Bank (AfDB); a $2.35 billion external loan requested in 2025 to finance the budget deficit and refinance Eurobonds; and a $1.75 billion loan from the World Bank, approved to support agriculture, digital infrastructure, health security, and small businesses.

The administration has also repaid significant debts, including a $3.4 billion IMF loan. The debt-to-GDP ratio is reportedly below 40%, considered sustainable by the IMF and World Bank.

In another development, Nigeria’s oil sector has attracted significant foreign direct investments (FDI) in 2025. ExxonMobil plans to invest $1.5 billion in Nigeria’s deepwater oil fields, focusing on revitalizing production in the Usan deepwater oil field between 2025 and 2027.

In the same vein, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) approved 28 Field Development Plans, unlocking $18.2 billion in investment commitments, expected to add 591,000 barrels of oil per day and 2.1 billion standard cubic feet of gas per day.

On the whole, Nigeria attracted over $16 billion in upstream investment commitments between 2023 and 2025, with renewed participation from global energy giants like Shell, TotalEnergies, and Seplat. These investments demonstrate growing investor confidence in Nigeria’s oil sector, driven by regulatory reforms and an improved investment climate.

In the gas sector, the $2.8 billion Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) Gas Pipeline Project is 83% complete, with the pipeline crossing the River Niger, a major milestone. On completion it is expected to enhance domestic gas utilization, improve power generation, and create industrial corridors in the Kaduna-Kano axis.

Also the Nigerian Gas Trading, Clearing and Settlement Platform has been unveiled, marking the country’s first regulated online marketplace for natural gas. The platform, formally known as the Gas Trading Licence, Clearing House and Settlement Authorization, introduces real-time pricing, standardised contracts, transparent transactions and guaranteed payment systems in a sector previously shaped by opaque, closed-door arrangements. This is an incentive to not just increase gas production but also local supply to the Nigerian market.

Once again the nation was jolted by the news report of a coup plot, which was swiftly nipped in the embryonic stage. There was initial subterfuge by the military high command; later the military announced it had arrested some officers in an alleged coup plot. The former governor of Bayelsa State, Timpriye Sylva, was the alleged mastermind of the coup. Sylva has been declared wanted by the authorities. 

At the moment, a diplomatic row is brewing between Nigeria and Burkina Faso. The Nigerian Air Force (NAF) C-130 aircraft was seized by Burkina Faso on December 8, 2025, after making a precautionary landing in Bobo-Dioulasso due to a technical issue. The plane, carrying 11 military personnel, including two crew members and nine passengers, was headed to Portugal for maintenance, according to military authorities. The Nigerian government has engaged in diplomatic efforts to secure the release of the aircraft and personnel. 

However, Burkina Faso’s military government claimed the aircraft entered their airspace without authorization, calling it a breach of national sovereignty. The Confederation of Sahel States (AES), comprising Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, condemned the incident and put their air defense systems on high alert.

The year witnessed significant changes in the military leadership. General Olufemi Oluyede has replaced General Christopher Musa as the new Chief of Defence Staff. Lt. General Waidi Shaibu has taken over as the Chief of Army Staff, while Air Marshal S.K. Aneke is now the Chief of Air Staff. Admiral I. Abbas has been appointed as the Chief of Naval Staff. The Chief of Defence Intelligence, Lt. General E.A.P. Undiendeye, retains his position. These changes are part of efforts to strengthen Nigeria’s national security architecture amid ongoing concerns over internal security challenges and speculation about instability within the armed forces.

On the political front, as permutations and realignments for 2027 begin to take shape, some governors in the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have bailed out of the party wracked by internal crisis and subsequently anchored their boats to the APC moorings. At last count, four governors from the South-South, formerly a PDP stronghold, have ported to the ruling APC. Governor Ademola Adeleke of Osun State, formerly of the PDP, has decamped to the Accord Party. After a lot of rigmarole, the PDP conducted its convention in Ibadan, Oyo State, where Kabiru Tanimu Turaki emerged as chairman of the party. At the party convention, Tanimu announced the expulsion of the Minister of the FCT, Nyesom Wike; the former governor of Ekiti State, Ayo Fayose; factional National Secretary Samuel Anyanwu; and eight others belonging to the Wike-led rival faction for alleged anti-party activities. The main opposition party also dissolved the entire party structures in Imo, Abia, Enugu, Akwa Ibom, and Rivers states. Due to the intractable crisis in the PDP, suspected to be engineered by the ruling party and with fears that APC wants to foist a one-party system on the nation, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Senate President David Mark, and other PDP bigwigs have decamped to the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

The year witnessed the passage of eminent personalities, traditional rulers, and religious leaders. Some eminent personalities who passed away include Major General Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria’s former military head of state and democratically elected president from 2015 to 2023, who died in London on July 13, 2025, at the age of 82. Others are Chief Edwin Clark, a renowned statesman and leader of the Pan Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF), who died on February 17, 2025, at the age of 97, and Dr. Christopher Kolade, a respected elder statesman, diplomat, and thought leader, who passed away on October 8, 2025, at the age of 93. 

Furthermore, Chief Ayo Adebanjo, a foremost nationalist, elder statesman, and national leader of the Yoruba socio-cultural group, Afenifere, died on February 14, 2025, at the age of 96. Also, Sheikh Dahiru Usman Bauchi, a popular Islamic cleric and leader of the Tijjaniyya order in Nigeria, died at the age of 98 on November 27, 2025. Brig. Gen. Musa Uba lost his life in the line of duty while bravely defending the nation at Wajiroko in Damboa LGA of Borno State. Former governor Omololu Olunloyo of Oyo State died in April 2025. Jesutega Onnokpasa, a lawyer, a prominent political commentator and chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC), passed away in mid-2025. Dr. Doyin Okupe, politician and physician, also passed away on March 7, 2025. Also, media guru Dr. Doyin Abiola, a pioneering woman in the editorial chair in Nigeria and former managing director of the defunct Concord Newspapers Limited, died on August 5, 2025. 

The Awujale of Ijebuland, Oba Sikiru Adetona, who was one of Nigeria’s longest-serving monarchs, died on July 13, 2025, at the age of 91 after a reign of over 65 years. Oba Owolabi Olakulehin, Olubadan of Ibadanland, passed away on July 7, 2025, at the age of 90, barely two days after celebrating his birthday and about a year after ascending the throne. Major General Muhammadu Sani Sami, the Emir of Zuru in Kebbi State and a retired military leader, died in a London hospital on August 17, 2025, at the age of 81.

In another development, the terrorism conviction and life sentence handed down by the Federal High Court in Abuja to Nnamdi Kanu, leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), brings closure to a ten-year legal battle. But there have been calls for a political solution to the Nnamdi Kanu case. Abia State governor Alex Otti has met with President Tinubu on that score.

Kanu has been the arrowhead of calls for the secession of Nigeria’s southeast region, yet the 1999 Constitution states that Nigeria is an indivisible and indissoluble sovereign state (Section 2(1)), implying that secession is not allowed. Attempts to secede may be considered treason, which is punishable under laws such as the Treason and Treasonable Offences Act.

On a lighter note, the Nigerian entertainment industry has continued to grow exponentially. The creative economy experienced phenomenal box office growth, Afrobeats has emerged as an influential cultural export, a soft power that has continued its global dominance and recognition with artists winning major international awards, and digital innovation became a cornerstone of content creation and distribution. 

Ayra Starr won the BET Award for Best International Act, making her one of the youngest Africans to take home the trophy. Davido dropped his fifth studio album, “5IVE,” which topped Nigerian streaming platforms and sparked international conversations.

Tunde Onakoya completed a 64-hour chess marathon in Times Square, New York, setting a Guinness World Record and raising funds for African slums. Also, Opeyemi “Imisi” Ayanwale won Big Brother Naija Season 10, taking home N150 million. According to reports, due to digital growth, the industry is expected to generate $14.82 billion in revenue, driven by streaming platforms, social media, and online collaborations.

The year ended on a dramatic note with a coup organized by a renegade group within the military in the Republic of Benin, who seized the national television and announced the ouster of President Patrice Talon, suspended the constitution, and dissolved all political institutions. The coup plotters were met with a strong rebuff by Nigeria, after which President Tinubu approved the deployment of Nigeria’s fighter jets to Benin Republic airspace, as well as ground troops who helped restore order to the nation. Soon after, loyalist forces regained control after the mutiny was crushed. The mutinous soldiers threatened to drag Nigeria’s neighbour to the west into West Africa’s coup belt. Thereafter the putschists were neutralized, and President Talon restored the status quo ante. President Tinubu has been applauded for nipping in the bud a potential spillover effect of military coups to other ECOWAS nations.

Meanwhile, leading economist Bismark Rewane while presenting his projections at the Parthian Economic Discourse 2025 in Lagos, predicted a historic economic reset in 2026 as Nigeria heads for a market boom, a stronger naira, and faster growth.

There’s a sense of cautious optimism since the economic indicators point to positive signals, and as Rewane noted, “Nigeria is standing at the threshold of a profound economic reset, with the potential either to accelerate into a new era of stability and growth or stumble at the edge of transformation if reforms stall.” 

In retrospect, President Trump’s stinging condemnation of Christian persecution in Nigeria has caused President Tinubu’s administration to confront the country’s security problems. This shift in momentum is evident in Tinubu’s efforts to overhaul the security architecture, review laws for state police, and strengthen international partnerships to combat insecurity. With those measures rolled out by the Tinubu administration, the US is expected to play a more renewed and robust role in addressing the security crisis in Nigeria.