Is Russia Preparing For The Wrong Future? – OpEd

In May 2026, military and technical cooperation was approved by the Russians and the Taliban administration, which was explained in Moscow by the pragmatic nature of the order. But as behind the diplomatic rhetoric is the obvious question that perhaps soon all European, Central Asian and American decision makers must ask themselves one: what happens when one of the world’s principal military powers starts to invest in a nation with an uncertain long-term political trajectory in which thousands of armed militants still roam the countryside?

The deal, which was inked at a Russia security forum near Moscow, has been called a lookout for greater cooperation in the arms sector between the Taliban-led government in Kabul and Russia. Both sides have not spoken openly about the details, but it’s enough that the symbolism is fascinating. Just under 12 months ago, top Russian officials had publicly put the number of extremists who were also fighting in Afghanistan at over 23,000. The recent gesture by Moscow is therefore bizarre. Why is Russia moving closer towards the regime in Afghanistan when the country is still a hotbed of regional security issues?

This could be geopolitical necessity. In the past two years, from the fall of the Western-backed Afghan government in 2021, Russia has been gradually moving away from cautious engagement with the Taliban towards active cooperation.With the fall of the Western-backed Afghan government in 2021, Russia has been transitioning from cautious engagement to active cooperation with the Taliban in the last two years. The planners in Moscow know how important Afghanistan is for the security of the whole region of the Eurasian continent because of its location, the planners know how to manage crisis and crisis situations in Afghanistan.The planners of Moscow realise the importance of Afghanistan and its location between Central Asia, South Asia and the general security structure of the geopolitical area of Eurasian continent; the planners also know how to manage crisis situation and crisis in Afghanistan. The current era of heightened competition with the West seems to have heightened the interests of Russian policymakers to be more about influence than consistency.

But history also shows that influence in Afghanistan is not the creation of outsiders and rarely goes on their terms.

Afghanistan has consistently proven itself a thorn in the sides of foreign governments of any stripe and military force over the past several decades. Lulls have often been followed by fracturing, intra-movement rivalry and the strong formation of new armed groups. The Soviet Union had gained this experience in its decade long intervention. 20 years later, the United States and NATO faced a similar situation in their own country, with billions of dollars invested and 20 years of a military presence. But whether Russia is beginning a similar cycle is what awaits to be determined.

One of the most interesting questions surrounding the future strategic importance of Bagram Air Base is the matter of increased usage.The subject of increased usage of Bagram Air Base is among the most intriguing matters relating to its future strategic importancy. In former times, Bagram was well-known to American soldiers as one of the military bases used by them in Afghanistan, and today it is still very significant among military bases in the region. As yet, there is no proof Russia does the want actual control of the base. But strategic relationships may be built up gradually. Technical cooperation can unfold into opportunities for intelligence sharing, access to infrastructure, logistical arrangements or other security partnerships.

It is not a matter of whether Russian planes will fly overhead at Bagram.The worry of western analysts is not so much that the Russian planes will suddenly appear at Bagram. Instead, it’s about the gradual encroachment of Russian power that would enable a new strategic presence in an area that previously formed a key part of NATO power stations around the region. Any move towards that, or the sense of a shift, would have symbolic and geopolitical meaning much larger than anything in Afghanistan. Yet more troubling is the longer term issue of the endurance of military technology and institutions.

History in Afghanistan has abounding with instances of weapons, training and military resources passing from one government to another flag, as the groups reorganized and moved to other positions. It took just one year for military infrastructure to become vulnerable in Afghanistan in 2021 during the political change driven by the collapse of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces.

What if the current political dynamics prove unworkable in the face of future crises, however, and Russia starts to help the Afghan security leadership with training and arms?

Attempts to determine Afghanistan’s political future will continue to be fraught for a while to come. The Taliban are in control throughout the nation now, but there are no underlying socio-economic and ethnic challenges that have vanished. There is a history of a drastic change in Afghanistan’s internal balance over relatively small time spans. If there were any future fragmentation, then questions would arise on the final destination of military technologies brought up as part of current cooperation agreements.

As is always the case, security professionals tend to think about interstate affairs; Afghanistan has shown that an equally important concern can be what happens when interstate relations become fragile. Things that are created for one organization can at some point become resources for a different set of actors. The challenge here is not direct transfer but rather, long-term diffusion. This worry is not restricted to Afghanistan’s borders.

For years, governments in the Central Asian region have been trying to rein in turbulence on their southern borders. Russia has also raised issues of cross-border militancy, radical recruitment groups and threats to regional security. Tighter military ties with Afghanistan might give Moscow a temporary advantage, but may also put it on a form of exposure that it’s trying to avoid.

This general geopolitical context is also important. As Russia gets deeper and deeper into Afghanistan’s security landscape, it may end up accepting more responsibility to events that it is unable to exactly oversee. Nearly all great powers that have tried to assert influence in Afghanistan have been impacted by this phenomenon. Strategic involvement opens opportunities to commit, expect and potentially expose so much more than was initially intended.

Another problem for the European policy makers is that despite substance more of Afghanistan may fall into the informal security models, conflict economies and transnational militant ecosystems. This is a process that does not necessarily need state sponsorship even less worldwide coordinated operations to generate issues. In highly insecure places, a chain reaction sets in, with effects that are hard to anticipate and even more challenging to rectify.

The deeper the question that might need to be asked is perhaps the most straightforward one: aside from immediate influence, does Russia have a realistic agenda for Afghanistan?

Current evidence indicates that dialogue with the Taliban is Moscow’s pragmatic way of addressing regional realities. However, there are strategic implications to practical decisions. Russia is taking risks that may only become apparent in the future by increasing military ties with a government that is present in one of the most volatile political landscapes on earth.

The ambitions of external powers have been changed in Afghanistan in the past. The country has been experienced by empires, superpowers and regional characters all of which thought they could cope with the complexities here. Athe vast majority eventually would find out that strategy was more important as a thought process than what was happening inside Afghanistan.

The new one made by Russians and the Taliban is likely to work out in the end; it’s certainly a start. It could give Moscow leverage in the region and contribute to its security in Central Asia. It might just also be a declaration of something else—in a country where over and over again, citizens who thought they knew what was going on were up for some startling shocks.

As of now, Russia seems to view the pros as weighing in favor of them. Hopefully the rest of the world will be waiting to see if Afghanistan knows how to once again prove that there are situations in which foreign actors may step in and rarely determine the outcome.