Kashmir Goes To Elections: Who Will Win? – OpEd
As Indian-controlled Kashmir prepares for its first election in ten years, many locals see this as more than a vote for governance—it’s a referendum on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s policies in the region.
Since 2019, Kashmir’s political and social landscape has dramatically changed after Modi’s government stripped the region of its special status, further deepening the sense of alienation among its Muslim-majority population. Historically, boycotting elections in Kashmir has been a powerful statement of defiance against Indian rule. Many residents viewed elections as rigged, illegitimate exercises under military occupation. However, this sentiment seems to be shifting. “Boycotts will not work in this election,” says Abdul Rashid, a resident of southern Kashmir. For many, the stakes have never been higher, as this election presents a rare opportunity to voice their dissent and challenge Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which aims to consolidate control over the region.
From Boycott to Participation: A New Strategy
The 2019 revocation of Kashmir’s autonomy dealt a severe blow to its distinct identity. The region lost its constitution, flag, and special protections for land and jobs, leaving many residents feeling stripped of their dignity. It was a move that resonated with Modi’s supporters in mainland India, but for Kashmiris, it was seen as an aggressive attempt to erase their culture and history. Despite the ongoing anger, many Kashmiris are now rethinking their strategy. By participating in these elections, they aim to deny the BJP the ability to form an administration. While the elections will only offer limited power to a local assembly, with critical areas like security remaining under New Delhi’s control, the local leadership hopes to regain some degree of autonomy. Abdul Rashid’s perspective reflects a growing sentiment: “There is a desperate need to end the onslaught of changes coming from India.” For people like Rashid, voting is no longer seen as legitimizing India’s rule, but rather as a way to fight back within the system.
The Role of Local Parties and Independent Candidates
Local pro-India parties such as the National Conference and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are contesting the elections, with a shared promise to reverse the 2019 changes and restore Kashmir’s statehood. While their ability to achieve this is uncertain, they are rallying voters with the hope of reclaiming some power from New Delhi. Meanwhile, some separatist leaders, who have long dismissed elections as meaningless under military rule, are running as independent candidates. This shift signals a pragmatic turn in Kashmir’s politics, where even staunch critics of Indian governance see the value in engaging with the process to challenge Modi’s policies.
Despite these developments, the election remains fraught with tension. The BJP is accused of tacitly supporting independent candidates who align with its agenda, aiming to divide the vote and secure a foothold in the region. The National Conference’s Tanvir Sadiq has warned of these efforts, saying, “Their (BJP’s) concerted effort is to divide the vote in Kashmir.”
A Limited Restoration of Power
Even with a local assembly in place, Kashmir will remain a Union Territory under New Delhi’s direct control. The new government will have partial authority over education, taxation, and cultural matters, but security will stay firmly in the hands of the central government. The real prize—restoring statehood with full legislative powers—remains elusive, with Modi’s government offering no clear timeline for when this might happen. Many Kashmiris hope that if local parties win, it will send a strong message to the central government and the international community that the region rejects the 2019 changes. However, as political scientist Noor Ahmed Baba notes, the election won’t alter the fundamental dynamics of the Kashmir conflict. Still, it could create important pressure on New Delhi to reconsider its policies.
The Struggle for Autonomy Continues
For Kashmiris, this election offers a narrow but significant window to voice their frustrations. For Rafiq Ahmed, a taxi driver in Srinagar, the election is not just about choosing representatives but about securing a break from bureaucratic rule and reclaiming some degree of control over everyday life. “This election won’t solve the Kashmir dispute,” he says, “but it will at least give us a chance to show India that we’re still fighting.” While the election may not lead to immediate change, it is a critical moment in the region’s ongoing struggle for self-determination. Whether the local leadership can make meaningful strides towards autonomy or if the BJP consolidates its hold, the outcome will have far-reaching implications for the future of Kashmir.
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