Aim: Ukraine’s Gamble Into Russian Kursk? – OpEd

Ukraine’s armed forces capturing over 80 villages, and 1100 square km of Russia’s Kursk region have demonstrated their tremendous will to fight with high morale. Nevertheless, the military objective of this offensive remains unclear. In the short term, this is a boost for Ukraine and a morale blow to Russia.

Post WWII it is for the first time that Russia has been invaded. If these preliminary ‘Thrusts’ are able to hold on to Russian counter offensive in the Kursk region then this could prove to be a major turning point to the future Russian-Ukraine conflict. Ukrainian forces success in the Russia’s Kursk region is likely to bolster the US-NATO allies’ willingness to continue supporting Ukraine. The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk region is the most significant challenge to Putin since the Wagner mutiny of June 2023.Russian President Vladimir Putin has denounced the incursion as a “large-scale provocation.” 

Why Ukraine’s Counter Offensive now?

“Kursk incursion aimed to bring Moscow to the negotiating table. Says Ukraine’s presidential adviser. Ukraine needs ‘Strong position on battlefield’ before talks. Territory captured in Kursk could be part of negotiations. Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk was “significant” because “Ukraine gained more territory than Russia occupied during 2024 in total.”

“We do not need this territory for our country, but stopping long-range missile strikes by Russia into Ukraine from the Kursk region by creating a “buffer zone” there. It is just part of our military operation to ensure that our regions will not be shelled from the Kursk region,” Sumy has been shelled more than 2,000 times” since the beginning of summer. 

Zelensky has challenged Putin’s concept of a ‘Security Zone’ beyond the frontline of creating some kind of ‘Buffer Zone’ so that any Ukrainian strikes are out of range.” So Zelensky has possibly extended this ‘Buffer Zone’ from the Ukrainian captured areas by Russia to the Russian region of Kursk. Wonder, if Zelensky has war gamed the reactions of President Putin? Likely Zelensky’s Pentagon and NATO advisors must have approved these plans as their weapons and tanks are on the battlefield in the Russian region of Kursk. Ukraine as it is facing drastic shortfalls in manpower and equipment and in such a long war of attrition, manpower and equipment are essential. So, opening a new front may turn into a gamble. Ultimately Ukraine will be forced to retreat from Russia by the larger Russian Forces and also risks being surrounded by superior forces.

President Putin’s repeated verbal threats to execute tactical nuke missile attacks have not deterred the West US-NATO. It has also called the bluff on Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons in the event of escalation of the fighting onto Russian territory. Ukraine is using weapons provided by US-NATO members as part of its thrust into Russia. German and US armoured fighting vehicles, as well as UK tanks have been involved in Ukraine’s ground operation. 

Russian Reactions

President Putin has himself estimated that “the enemy, with the support from their Western backers, is executing their directives, and the West is using Ukrainians as proxies in this conflict. It seems the opponent is aiming to strengthen their negotiating position for the future…these actions clearly aim to achieve a primary military objective: to halt the advance of our forces.” 

Some military analysts may be thinking that Russian military may have set a trap for the Ukraine forces and then destroy as sitting ducks by cutting their logistic supply lines. But the harsh truth is that Russian military has been caught napping underestimating the will of their enemy. However, now the Russian military is resorting to such knee jerk plans to be put in place. 

Putin’s response to the Kursk crisis has been to rule out any new compromise and dismiss the prospect of peace talks with Ukraine. He said Kyiv’s attack seemed designed to improve its position in negotiations, “But what kind of negotiations?”

Implications for Russia

Post WWII it is for the first time that Russia has been invaded and the invincibility factor must have been shattered thereby lowering the morale of its forces. President Putin’s reputation as a strong “great leader” has taken a hit with this loss of Russian territory. He may react strongly to keep his reputation intact.

Ukraine’s Kursk Counter Offensive is likely to shift the focus of the Russian forces from the present frontlines and troop levels may be thinned out from the existing battle lines. 

Ukraine’s success is likely to synergize the diminishing war support to the Ukrainian war fighting capability against Russia by reminding the West that Ukraine can fight and win, so the ongoing support will not be wasted.

The idea that Ukraine could invade Russia a much bigger neighbour seemed unthinkable to most. Russians could never have imagined that Ukrainians who were busy defending themselves could undertake such a risk. The swift, surprise shock Ukrainian operation proved the ineffectiveness of Russia’s border surveillance systems and the failure of its border forces guarding them.

Ukrainian Wisdom Or the Kursk Gamble?

Irrespective of the military costs and benefits of the thrust there is no doubt that it has boosted the Ukrainian morale and given West the confidence to keep backing Ukraine to weaken Russia.

Ukrainian Foreign Ministry is saying this “Isn’t about Holding territory” but stopping long-range missile strikes by Russia into Ukraine from the Kursk region by creating a “buffer zone” there. Then ask what purpose the incursion serves? Funny aim at what cost and couldn’t the Ukrainians have destroyed the Russian missile bases with other means. However, Ukraine has been conducting its long-range drone operation beyond 500 miles. 

Casualties for the attacking side are generally high. Russia has the superior firepower advantage. Ukrainian forces may be suffering a higher casualty rate and loss of their equipment as Russia quickly brought massive airpower to bear against the advancing Ukrainian troops, who were in the open and easy to strike. 

Ukraine had to sidestep and move efficient combat units from the front lines for the Kursk strike force there by denuding the existing battle front. 

Ukraine lacks the long-term capacity to hold even the territory that it is currently holding and is unlikely to yield any strategic benefits for Ukraine and will demand a massive, sustained investment of troops and equipment that may weaken Ukrainian defenses, inadvertently creating opportunities for Russian forces along the lines of contact in Ukraine’s Donbas region.

Russian forces currently occupy roughly 20 percent of Ukraine. The Kursk incursion will be an embarrassment for Putin as well as an additional indicator that Russia presently is in no position to invade other NATO-EU members. 

In the ultimate analysis the Kursk Counter Offensive incursion has captured headlines and inflicted some psychological damage on Russia, such victories do little to alter the final results of the conflict. Ukraine, while demonstrating courage and resilience, faces a daunting challenge to hold on to the captured Kursk territory in view of this overwhelming disparity. Ukraine at this critical juncture has frittered away its precious resources from the ultimate goal to retrieve its captured territories from the Russian forces. Russia remains a formidable military power with a vast arsenal and a nuclear deterrent.

Ukraine’s Counter Offensive into Kursk may turn into a major strategic blunder turning the present stalemate into its ultimate defeat. Finally, this Ukrainian offensive action will lead to further escalation.

Modi’s Strategic Diplomacy: Initiate a Peace Dialogue

Modi’s planned visit to Ukraine during the month aims to be a decisive diplomatic balancing act to challenges he faces to navigating the complex geopolitical landscape, including counter balancing relations with Russia to play to the expectations of the international opinions.

Modi seeks to play a pivotal role in shaping the future of the Ukraine-Russia conflict at a critical stage of the conflict by focusing to encourage a peace dialogue and reinforcing India’s mediating position with both the warring nations leaders.