Middle East Diplomacy: Shifting Power Dynamics – OpEd
The Middle East is a complex region where power, politics, and diplomacy continuously evolve, driven by internal conflicts, external interventions, and shifting alliances. In recent years, the region has witnessed dramatic changes in its geopolitical landscape, including the rise of regional powers, deepened rivalries, and the involvement of global players.
Consequently, Saudi Arabia, as one of the most influential actors in the Middle East, has made significant moves to reshape the region’s power dynamics. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has introduced sweeping economic and social reforms under the banner of Vision-2030, which seeks to reduce the Kingdom’s reliance on oil, diversify the economy, and modernize its society. These reforms are intended to boost Saudi Arabia’s influence, but they are also paired with more assertive foreign policies.
Saudi Arabia under MBS has sought to become the undisputed leader of the Arab World, often clashing with Iran for regional dominance. The Saudi-led intervention in Yemen against the Houthi rebels—who are supported by Iran—has been a cornerstone of its efforts to limit Iranian influence. While Saudi Arabia has gained the support of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) allies, including the UAE, its military engagement in Yemen has been widely criticized for leading to one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world. In parallel, Saudi Arabia’s recalibration of diplomatic relations with Turkey and Qatar is also notable, as it seeks to form a united front against Iran, while stabilizing the broader Middle East. The reconciliation with Qatar in 2021, after years of blockade, signals a pragmatic shift, recognizing that internal division within the GCC only weakens its collective power.
Similarly, Iran remains one of the most significant players in the Middle East, often described as the leader of the “resistance axis” due to its opposition to Western influence and its rivals within the Arab World. Iran’s foreign policy has been shaped by both ideological commitments—rooted in its revolutionary Islamic Government—and pragmatic concerns about its national security.
For example, in Syria, Iran has played a critical role in supporting President Bashar al-Assad’s Government, enabling the regime to withstand both internal rebellion and external pressure. Tehran’s involvement in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon (through Hezbollah), and Yemen has solidified its status as a regional power but has also made it the target of sanctions and isolation from Gulf Arab states and the West. Despite these challenges, Iran continues to maintain influence through proxy militias, arms transfers, and strategic alliances.
Moreover, Iran’s partnerships with Russia and China in the region have allowed it to bypass Western sanctions to some degree, strengthening its hand. Meanwhile, its nuclear program remains a contentious issue, with negotiations under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) stalling, leaving the future of regional security in jeopardy. Consequently, the failure to secure a sustainable agreement on Iran’s nuclear ambitions risks escalating tensions between Tehran and its regional adversaries.
Similarly, Turkey, under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has sought to re-assert its role as a key player in Middle Eastern affairs. Turkish foreign policy has become increasingly assertive, ranging from military interventions in Syria and Libya to energy exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean. Erdoğan’s vision for Turkey, is to position the country as a dominant force in the Muslim World, as well as an interlocutor between warring factions in the region.
Thus, Turkey’s involvement in Syria has been both strategic and humanitarian. While Turkey has voiced support for the Syrian opposition, it has also sought to curb Kurdish influence in northern Syria, viewing it as a direct threat to its national security. This dual role has allowed Turkey to remain influential but has also drawn criticism from other regional powers, particularly Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
On another front, Turkey’s ties with Qatar have strengthened following the Saudi-led blockade, further cementing its role in the Gulf region. Additionally, its involvement in peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict highlights Turkey’s broader geopolitical ambitions that extend beyond the Middle East.
Pakistan is a nation of 240 million people, which is also the only nuclear Muslim state, maintaining fifth large standing Army of the world, has its peculiar regional clout. Though Pakistan’s role in the Middle East has been less prominent compared to Gulf Arab states, it still remains significant due to its military strength and strategic alliances.
As a nuclear-armed nation, Pakistan is viewed as a key ally by many Middle Eastern countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Pakistan has historically balanced its relationships between rival powers like Saudi Arabia and Iran, avoiding to get embroiled in their regional conflicts. Furthermore, Pakistan’s military and diplomatic ties with the Gulf states are underpinned by economic factors as well, given the millions of Pakistani expatriates, who work in the region and contribute to Pakistan’s economy through remittances. In recent years, Islamabad has also played a mediating role in reducing tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, recognizing that regional stability remains to be essential for Pakistan’s security and economic interests.
The Middle East’s shifting power dynamics are shaped by a multitude of factors, including the ambitions of regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Turkey, as well as the increasing involvement of external players like Israel. Therefore, these shifting alliances and rivalries are also intertwined with the region’s relations with South Asia, particularly Pakistan. As a result, as the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, the region’s future will depend on how these actors navigate their interests, rivalries, and partnerships.
