Why Pakistan Can’t Afford To Miss 5G – OpEd
Pakistan is in the crossroad. We can still consider mobile networks as a consumer convenience thing or we can finally consider it as infrastructure, national infrastructure, like roads, ports and power. It puts across a message on the type of economy that Pakistan wants to be in the next decade, and whether we would be competing in a region that has already gone into the full throttle.
The basic case is simple. Pakistan has already surpassed the 200 million cellular subscribers, and about 150 million broadband subscribers. Our spectrum capacity and backhaul is being strained and the demand on the data is ever growing. Traffic jam is not a common inconvenience; it is an established constraint. Selling the spectrum at 700, 1800, 2100, 2300, 2600 and 3500 MHz with a minimum revenue goal of about 630 million dollars is an effort to overcome a real bottleneck of the PTA strategy. Mobile networks breathe air in the form of spectrum and currently the system is sucking air with a straw.
What is a 5G and what does it add to what 4G already has. It consists of speed which under favourable conditions is up to 20 times faster than 4G but more importantly there is the change in capability. The network can be used as a platform to real time control, dense network and guaranteed access to cloud because of high speed and huge network capabilities of devices. That is significant because accelerated speed of video playing among the individuals will not be a part of the future generation of productivity. It will take out of the businesses that wish to proceed with connectivity to automate, measure, predict and coordinate on a large scale.
An increment in GDP of 4.7 billion dollars is estimated in an Analysis Mason study commissioned by Ericsson with the benefit to cost ratio of 2.8. The broader estimations show that the GDP growth may continue to rise by about 0.3 percent to 0.46 percent per year, to 2035 with concentration on the mid band range. You may take them as a guide, but not as an accurate one, but the message is clear. Delays are expensive. Such would be a true cost to indecision in the range of 1.8 billion dollars of lost GDPs in the period between 2025 and 2030.
Still policy is process, the design of the auction. Selling over 597 MHz in over one band, an Electronic Auction System, and a strict date is an indication of regulatory maturity. Investors are not only price-sensitive, but also price-foreseeable, quality-consultative, and time-timetable following. The only thing that is certain is money in a business where capital cost is high and pay back is sluggish. That credibility must exist on the part of Pakistan because it must possess the spectrum itself.
Of course, spectrum does not constitute a 5G economy. The rollout requirements 2026-2035 that start with Islamabad and Rawalpindi, Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar and Quetta are sensible as the gradual process. Nonetheless, 5G will fail without an upgrade in fibre backhaul, hopefully to Fiber to the Site, in the 20 per cent to 30 per cent range. The radios are in the form of sports cars that desire to be parked on a narrow street that does not have fibre. Local assembly of devices in support of policy and clear operator coverage standards can also assist in that regard if affordability and interoperability is kept in the lead.
It is this very story that the 5G renders feasible in industries to which Pakistan is delegated the growth burden. Approximately 40 percent of the workforce is occupied in agriculture, yet agriculture is typically done on guesswork and late information. Farmers will learn to apply water, fertilizer and pesticides with more precision relying on 5G-linked sensors and drones and real-time analytics. That can grow yield by about 15 per cent to 20 per cent, cut input costs by about 10 per cent to 15 per cent and do away with post-harvest losses with improved cold chain and logistical services. The 5G is used in Industry 4.0, automation, predictive maintenance and safer manufacturing and mining processes in the industry. The education system can help decrease the rural urban gaps, especially within the poorer districts if the materials and the teaching staff can keep pace with the immersive education tools and real time teaching. Telemedicine, remote monitoring, and low latency clinical support can be extended to the health sector in Balochistan and Gilgit Baltistan where the distance is often the most significant challenge.
The Uraan Pakistan strategy is aiming to achieve 5 billion dollars of the exports of IT in FY26 and 10 billion in FY29 and in line with a bigger target of 25 billion dollars digital economy that Pakistan is promoting. The recent exportation records like the 2.23 billion dollars in first six months of FY26 and the highest export of 437 million dollars in the month of December 2025 are manifestations of what can be achieved when talent and connectivity meet. Freelancers and remote teams do not just need bandwidth, they need low latency connections, and such connections are always reliable in cloud applications, AI activities, and real time teamwork. Pakistan cannot hope to get these kinds of contracts on their less developed infrastructure once the rest of the peers in the region like India and Vietnam already have greater digital pipes.
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