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An Oversupply Of EV’s From Foreign Manufacturers And A Lack Of Demand May Be A Financial Shock To The World – OpEd

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Until the current elite owners can demonstrate to the middle-income and those on fixed incomes that their EV’s are their primary family workhorse vehicles, and a solution to shipping potentially flammable EV batteries to American ports is resolved, may all be a prelude to a financial crisis brewing for the auto industry.

Amid tougher emissions regulations worldwide, established automakers are racing to add more EVs to their lineup. A Reuters analysis found that global automakers such as Audi, BMW, Hyundai, Fiat, Volkswagen, GM, Ford, Nissan, Toyota, Daimler, and Chrysler plan to spend a combined U.S. $300 billion on EVs over the next decade as car companies are betting big on EV’s.  Most of the EV’s will be manufactured in foreign countries far removed from American ports. 

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China came from zero production in 1950, to 2019 where it now produces more cars than the USA, Japan, and India collectively. The 6-minute video of the automobile manufacturing “needle” shows how the foreign manufacturing dominance occurred over the that 69-year period.

Automobiles manufactured per year.

Bringing those foreign built cars to America may be an insurmountable insurance problem. The Felicity Ace, a 650-foot-long cargo ship carrying hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of luxury cars sunk in March 2022. The salvage crew working on the burning ship said electric-vehicle batteries were part of the reason it was still aflame after several days. The estimated market value of the Felicity Ace was $24.5 million, while the total value of the 3965 vehicles could be over $500 million.

With potential fires from EV batteries, who’s going to take the insurance responsibility for their safe passage from the foreign manufacturers to American ports, the cargo ships, or the manufacturers?

With more than forty percent of the EV’s in America being in California at the end of 2020, the EV popularity in California has gotten California Governor Newsom so excited to that he issued an executive order to ban the sale of gas-powered vehicles by 2035. The EV popularity in California inspired President Biden to want the rest of the country to follow California’s lead and issued a new executive order that pushes for half of all new cars sold in America by 2030 to be electric vehicles.

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Even with the great California year-round weather, the states’ EV user’s experiences do not bode well for projected EV sales in America as the states’ EV users may be sending a caution-to-the-wind (no pun intended) message to America that the EV usage in the state reflects very conservative notices to future EV owners. A few reasons why Californians may be sending the wrong message to America are:

  1. The limited usage of the EV’s of about 5,000 miles per year is a reflection that the EV is a second vehicle, for those that can afford a second vehicle, and not the family workhorse vehicle.
  2. The primary owners of EV’s are the highly educated and financially well off, and not representative of the majority that are middle to low income folks, or those on fixed incomes. 
  3. EV owner incomes rank among the highest in the country which may be a reflection of home owners that have easier access to charging their EV from their multi-car garages, or for those folks living in new apartments that may have access to more convenient EV charging capabilities. Most car owners park in the street.
  4. According to ValuePenguin insurance, because electric vehicles cost more outright and are more expensive to repair, the average car insurance for an electric vehicle is about 23 percent more expensive than the cost for the equivalent combustion model.
  5. The ethnicity of Tesla owner’s skews toward Caucasians, at 87 percent. Owners who identify with Hispanic ethnicity make up 8 percent of Tesla owners, leaving 5 percent to other ethnicities.
  6. In California, the state with almost half the EV’s in the entire country, from that limited elite ownership group, there is a growing percentage of those California EV users that are switching back to gasoline cars, which is sending a message that may further deflate EV growth projections.

As Pew Research reported in June, “In each of the past three years, EVs accounted for about 2% of the U.S. new-car market.” In 2020, EV sales totaled 252,548, less than 3 percent of the 14,240, 548 passenger and light trucks sold. The reasons why EVs aren’t grabbing consumers by the tailpipe are many, but the main ones are affordability, charging and range functionality, and the possible exposure to inclement weather. 

Another challenge for the EV growth is the EV charging dependence on intermittent electricity generated from breezes and sunshine. Adding EV charging loads onto the grid that is becoming more unstable is like putting salt in the wound. Power outages are now commonplace in California and Texas with more to follow throughout the nation as we adjust to a life dependent upon the time of day and the weather.

Until the current elite owners can demonstrate to the middle-income and those on fixed incomes that their EV’s are their primary family workhorse vehicles in all kinds of weather conditions, the less fortunate will most likely remain reluctant to buy into the EV evolution. Growing the supply chain for EV’s without a corresponding growth in demand, could be an economic disaster in the works.

Growing the supply chain in foreign countries for EV’s without a corresponding growth in demand or an effective way to transport via cargo ships those vehicles built in countries far removed from American ports, could be an economic disaster in the works.

Ronald Stein

Ronald Stein, Founder and Ambassador for Energy & Infrastructure of PTS Advance, headquartered in Irvine, California.

12 thoughts on “An Oversupply Of EV’s From Foreign Manufacturers And A Lack Of Demand May Be A Financial Shock To The World – OpEd

  • March 24, 2022 at 6:36 pm
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    Hey, Ron:

    How much did Toyota (or fill in the blank) pay you for this hit piece on Tesla?

    Reply
    • March 28, 2022 at 3:04 pm
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      Typical of a Musketeer to reply with a comment that doesn’t agree with their unfailing belief in Muskie Boy. You all drank so much kool aide you’ve become blinded by self righteousness.

      Reply
    • March 31, 2022 at 12:59 am
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      Very informative, thank you Ron. Personally I’m a petrohead as they say in the UK. My 2009 Chevrolet C6 Corvette can get 30mpg if I just can stay off the gas peddle. How is the capacitor energy storage in place of lithium-* storage going? Please keep trying to inform the masses on EV waste and I’ll continue to share on social media.

      Reply
  • March 26, 2022 at 3:50 pm
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    Good article. I personally think that the ev is the biggest combined automotive and government ripoff to the world. I recently attended a new car show that featured evs. Cheapest ev there was 50k, followed by others going up to 200k. Of course the additional dealer markup tags were off the cars. Dodge is bragging about an all new electric muscle car to replace the challenger. Well the group of muscle car owners that I hang with aren’t interested. Nor are we interested in a twin turbo straight 6 either.

    Reply
    • March 28, 2022 at 9:15 am
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      2-4 cents a mile, vs 12-30 cents a mile is very attractive to me, ev prices are falling and charging outlets can be anywhere there is power. I think ev’s have a lot of appeal to the non wealthy. Give it a few more years, and driving a pollution belching ice will seem weird.

      Reply
  • March 28, 2022 at 6:15 am
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    There is room for both, gas and electric vehicles. The more we convert to electric, the more gas saved for those with that preference.

    Ultimately; those that love gas powered vehicles must come to grip with these facts, if they can solve these issues I’ll reconsider my electric car preference.

    1. Oil is a finite resource. We will run out in the future. Even if this happens after our lifespan is it right to consume most of the valuable resource considering all it’s uses?

    2. Burning oil products in vehicles has a negative effect on climate change and the air we breathe. If you don’t care about yourself, is it right not to be concerned about others?

    3. Much of the world’s oil reserves come from countries that are unfriendly to our country. Russia is a good example. The world needs to greatly reduce our dependence on oil from these sources.

    Finally, electric vehicles deliver a great driving experience. Generally They are much faster than gas powered vehicles. They cost much less to maintain and appear to have a longer life cycle. We certainly have issues to overcome. Currently EV’s are best suited for those with home charging station. Over the next 10 years we will see dramatic advancement in batteries, power generation, and hopefully economy of scale. Remember, people hated automobiles when they first came to market. Once Ford figured out how to make cars affordable, functional they took over as our primary mode of transportation.

    Reply
  • March 28, 2022 at 1:58 pm
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    Big oil EV hate piece. Ronald C. Stein is a policy advisor at The Heartland Institute … where he is “known as a leader in … solutions to major oil refineries.” Facts are wrong.

    Reply
  • March 28, 2022 at 2:25 pm
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    Yawn…I drive an EV that’s not a Tesla as my daily driver and its my only vehicle besides my wife’s car that I never drive beside I’m too tall for it. I am middle class, albeit upper middle class. It’s much cheaper to charge my EV than it was to fill the tank of my previous vehicle. My power company, along with many others have an EV charging plan. It costs a measly average of 10 cents a day to charge it! If I am traveling then guess what it’s free to charge as well at Electrify America for the next three years! So get off your opinionated article and do some actual research on the matter!

    Reply
  • March 28, 2022 at 6:36 pm
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    I think Competition between gas and electric will bring about a even better method of transportation.
    The author makes some valid points that many people I know have concern with .
    But in certain areas Ev’s are the very best option.
    Having both groups fight it out for the top spot is not only healthy but absolutely necessary for us to drive new inventions, i also see prices for gas and electric to stabilize in the future were both opinions are very affordable.
    Time will tell

    Reply
  • March 29, 2022 at 3:14 pm
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    This article predicting the assumed future is about what is not what is to come. EVs by hundreds of startups won’t have sunk investment like Toyota. Ours has 260 part numbers where a luxury fart car can have.30,000 individual parts to merge. Advanced EVs coming will be half the cost of the fart car and legally drive three times faster in the city center. They will swap their battery mule at 40 mph.

    Reply
  • March 29, 2022 at 5:42 pm
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    As soon as EV cars get a much better battery and they sell for around $20,000 or less then let me know and I might buy one. With my current Hyundai Elantra full gas tank I get 40mpg with 14  gallon tank equals 560 miles. That will get me to Canada and half way back.

    Reply
  • March 29, 2022 at 10:36 pm
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    EV are too expensive, true. Charging isn’t as easy as it should be, true. And batteries do need to be safer.

    Regardless, The only way these issues improve is by getting experience dealing with them.

    Also, EVs are cheaper and safer in the long run (5 year ownership). And as they become more popular, charging options will increase.

    Reply

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