Operation Sindoor: Defying The Full Spectrum Deterrence Theory Of Pakistan – OpEd
The present escalation between India and Pakistan threaten to rise to the level of nuclear war is not a new and first time phenomenon between India and Pakistan. Both the countries have witnessed many escalations and have fought 4 wars.
Nothing has changed even after the 4 wars except the division of Pakistan and independence of East Pakistan as an Independent Bangladesh, adoption of methods of unconventional war and coveted operation against India after the humiliating defeat of Pakistan in the 1971 war against India. The continuation of the escalations and conflict between India and Pakistan due to the Pakistan infiltrations, coveted operations against India not only threatens the security and development of the both nations but it also has the broader implications on the security spectrum of South- Asia.
The analysis of the pattern and method of the present crisis and linking it with history of conflict between India and Pakistan proves that escalation and conflict between India and Pakistan are linked with the colonial political history and it is like an embryo disease. The very foundation of Pakistan is laid on the colonial theory and policy of “divide and rule” to which the colonial authority embedded in India after the 1857 Revolt. To garner the fruits from the seeds of its “divide and rule” policy colonial authorities not only created the division between the various religious, caste and cultural divisions among the native communities but also patronised certain groups, organisation and individuals to deepen the division among the natives.
The Indian Pakistan conflict is directly and very vividly rooted in the “divide and rule” policy of British which was designed to break the culture ties of the Indian Muslims with their inheritance and own communities. The very foundation of the Muslim League and the colonial division of India into India and Pakistan at the time of independence of India under the vitiated political environment was the Deeping of the roots of the cultural and civilisation conflict in South Asia.
The unnatural division of the intact geography and cultural would have definite impact on the people and government living across the two political boundaries as the most precious natural resources were to be divided along the unnatural lines of the political boundaries. It is under the above design of colonial political history that India and Pakistan are witnessing an embryonic conflict which is rising to next level with each escalation, confrontation and war as the hate and loss in each war is enhancing the arm races and invention of the new technologies and method of the calibrated loss to each other. The partition of India and creation of the Pakistan has not only resulted into massacre of on the both sides of newly created borders and the failure of the state authority but the more challenges have come from the new political set up of Pakistan. Jinnah explored his design of expansionism and with the patronage of great powers and attacked the Independent state of Jammu and Kashmir, whose ruler Maharaja Hari Singh signed the Instrument of Accession and merged his state with India that resulted into the first war between India and Pakistan and the Indian military also evicted the Pakistan military from large part of Jammu and Kashmir territory. However, despite of heavy loss to the Indian forces in Jammu and Kashmir Indian government didn’t opened its other borders routes to attack Pakistan and limited its Operation to the eviction of Pakistan forces from the Jammu and Kashmir. Moreover, for the peaceful and legal solution of problem India approached the United Nations against the Pakistan invasion and illegal occupation of its territory by the Pakistan. India accepted the UN Resolution on cease fire. India also remained a truthful and good neighbour and signed “Indus Water Treaty” (IWT) with Pakistan in 1960. The gloomy side of the peaceful co-existence and mutual trust and the impact of cold war soon surfaced as Pakistan joined the USA camp and signed a Mutual Defence Assistance Agreement in 1954. The militarization of the South Asia and the joining of USA military alliances by Pakistan like South East Asian Treaty Organization (SEATO) and the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) had an adverse impact on the peace in South Asia and Indo Pak Relations. Pakistan received huge economic and military aid after becoming the close partner of the USA, it was only after the receiving USA weapons and military equipments that Pakistan planned to launch “Operation Gibraltar” to infiltrate in the Indian territory again that resulted into full fledge war in 1965. This war ended with “Tashkent Treaty” through which India and Pakistan assured the maintenance of status quo on the mutual borders.
The military aggression and intrusion into Indian Territory of Jammu and Kashmir proved counterproductive for Pakistan itself as East Pakistan i.e. present Bangladesh witnessed a strong linguistic and regional movement against the exploitation, discrimination and inhumane treatment meted out to the Bengali people of East Pakistan by the Punjabi dominant leadership of West Pakistan. It is pertinent to note that India extended its political and military support to “Mukti Bahini” that resulted into Pakistan declaration of war against India. The third attempt of the Pakistan to challenge India proved costly as this war not only humiliated the Pakistan military but also resulted into the partition and resizing the territory of Pakistan and independence of East Pakistan as Bangladesh. Moreover, the third party and UNO intervention in Jammu & Kashmir have also lost the weight as after this war Pakistan signed “Shimla Agreement” with India and assured India of respecting the line of control in Jammu and Kashmir and settling of the mutual disputes through peaceful and harmonial methods.
It was at this juncture that Pakistan realized that it can’t face India in conventional warfare despite of the American military and economic help, and it needs to redesign and reshape its military strategy against India. The new strategy was to be based on the old military doctrine of “BleedIndia with a Thousand Cuts” and “Thousand Year War Against India” a blend of Pakistan President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and army Chief General Zia-ul-Haq policy. Before executing its new military strategy against India a full plan for the development of “First Spectrum Deterrence” against India’s conventional war was prepared and an immediate quest for the development of atom bomb was expressed by new Pakistan President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in his very first meeting with the top scientist of the Pakistan in January 1972. However, India’s surprise nuclear test in 1974 again threatened the Pakistan deterrence as the coveted operations of Pakistan may invite an confrontation with India and Pakistan have no mean to deter India in conventional war as well against the nuclear attack. It was near about after the 16 years of the India’s first nuclear test that Pakistan detonated five nuclear devices in the Ras Koh Hills of Chagai district (Baluchistan) that is again a few weeks after the India’s second nuclear test (Operation Shakti) of May 1998.
After achieving the protection of the nuclear umbrella a new strategy for the deep infiltration into the social-cultural fabrics and the political and administrative set of India was started and the religious sentiments of the social groups against each other and the government of India were used by the Pak sponsored agencies and groups to give deep wounds to India. One of the most prosperous state of India, Punjab which was known as the “Jewel in the Indian Crown” and the “Granary of India” became the first experimental ground for the test of unconventional war or to do the calibrated damage to India. It was during the mid of 1970’s that the tug of war between the Akali Dal (a regional political party of Punjab) and Congress went to an unprecedented extent and the political issues of Punjab were attached to the socio-religious set-up of the Punjab. The Congress attempt to marginalize the Akali Dal (moderate Sikh political party) by the patronizing the radical sect of Damdami Takshal or Bhindranwala proved to be a nightmare for Punjab. The patronizing and suppression of the radical Sikhs for the political gains by the Congress resulted into the “Operation Blue Star” killing of the Indian Prime Minister and the congress supported massacre of the Sikhs in the Congress ruling state across India in 1984, which created a wedge between the Sikhs and Hindus who happens to be of same origin. Pakistan took the full-advantage of the Sikhs emotional set-back and the resentment against India and launched its coveted operation in Punjab. The crossing over to the Pakistan border by the Sikh youth after “Operation Blue Star” and sending them back to India by ISI after proper training and weaponising is not a hidden secret. However, despite of many evidences and open support of the Pakistan to secessionist terrorists in Punjab, India could not design any policy framework and diplomatic measures to control the Pakistan’s intervention in Punjab. The Indian attempts to normalize the situation in Punjab have been restrained to the internal security measures and vigilance at international border of Pakistan adjoining to the Punjab. However, soon after the state of Jammu and Kashmir had fallen to covert operation of the Pakistan. The scenic valley of Kashmir suddenly witnessed an outburst of violence against the native minority population of Kashmiri Pandits in the early 1990’s; the given reason was the rigged election of March 1987 to the State Legislature. The most astonishing was the sudden rise in the violence against the Hindus and the infiltration of the foreigner Islamic terrorists’ at large scale within no time. The open threats and the killings of the Kashmiri pandits by the fundamentalists and terrorists and the exodus of the Kashmiri Hindus to the other states of India despite of the forces available in the valley was a great policy failure to nip the evil in bud at the one hand and on the other hand the Indian attempts to normalize the situation in border state of Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir had been restrained to the internal security measures and vigilance at international border of Pakistan adjoining the Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir despite of the many massacres of the Hindu and Sikhs by the Pak sponsored terrorists in Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir.
After the successful nuclear explosions in May 1998, both countries decided to reduce tension by repeating their commitment of resolving their mutual disputes through peaceful means and signed the “Lahore Declaration” in February 1999. However, this agreement failed to prevent another round of war as the peace diplomacy couldn’t restrain the deep state of Pakistan from doing the misadventures against India as it launched “Operation Badr”, in the month of February 1999 itself. In the summer of 1999, the mountainous region of Kargil in Jammu and Kashmir erupted into a fierce but brief conflict between India and Pakistan. Though the war only lasted a few months, its impact on both nations resonated for much longer on the mutual relations and confidence but it jolted India very deep as it lost the precious lives of 527 military person and injuries to the 1363 soldiers but it couldn’t act directly against the deep state in the Pakistan.
The Kargil War, though brief became a turning point, forever altering the security landscape of the region, the loss and the threat perception which India received in this war changed its thinking pattern and the preparation to fight any conflict and war against the Pakistan. It forced India to look inward and critically evaluate its military strategies and preparedness. The war left an undeniable scar, reminding everyone of the ever-present tensions simmering beneath the surface. The Pakistan infiltration was to be stopped by the calibrated loss to the masterminds of the infiltration and terrorism who are sitting in the safe haven of Pakistan under the nuclear umbrella of first spectrum deterrence theory or the threat of the nuclear war if they are touched upon. India was waiting and preparing to break the trap of nuclear threat or the first spectrum deterrence theory of Pakistan, however, each attempt or the coveted operation of the Pakistan after the Kargil war was like testing of water level or patience of India. India sucessfully evicted all the strategic position through the “Operation Vijay” and also used its diplomatic channels to defame the deep state of Pakistan for imposing an unnecessary conflict to India, but the deep state had other plans to bleed India again and again. It is pertinent to mention that despite of the international pressure on the Pakistan government against the misadventure of ‘Operation Badr” India military didn’t cross the LOC and all its attacks were limited to the strategic position which were occupied by the Pakistan infiltrators made the deep state to belief that the nuclear weapons of the Pakistan provided a security shield to them against the conventional military power of India. So each attempt of deep state of the Pakistan to give deep wound and pain was placed under the guarantee of the security shield of the first spectrum deterrence.
In the above context many new terrorists’ attacks were planned by the deep state of Pakistan including Red Fort attack, 2000, the Indian Parliament 2001, Akshardham temple in Gujrat. , 2002, the Hotel Taj in Mumbai, 2008, the responsibility of the each attack and bloodstain was always taken from the terrorists groups who were either based in Pakistan or either they were of proxy wing of the Pakistan based terrorist organizations.
The testing time for which the Indian security forces were waiting from a long time to respond to the heinous acts of terrorism and to punish the culprits who were hiding in Uri, Balakot, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Karachi etc came over with the change of government in 2014. A shift in India’s foreign policy and the tit for tat policy against the Pakistan deep state of Pakistan provided the security forces an opportunity to nip the evil in bud after the 2016 terrorist attack on security forces in Uri as the government allowed the limited Air Strikes against the Jaish-e-Mohammad training campus in the POJK. Within the period of three years the terrorist organizations were again trembled by the Indian Air force strikes and the government decided to teach a lesson again to the culprits after Pulwama attack in 2019. This air strike was larger than the 2016 air strikes as in this strike many terrorist camps were destroyed and more than 300 terrorists in the territory of enemy country. The recent terrorist attack and massacre of tourists at Pahalgam was not just an act of brutality, but it was more calculated political signal, carefully timed and deliberated chosen to inflict not only to inflict human causalities but to cause strategic disruption. It was the major act of the deep state of Pakistan to back on the radar of India after the 5 August 2019 as Pakistan had faded from India’s radar and India’s foreign policy imagination after the establishment of peace and democracy in the state of Jammu and Kashmir.
The required action needs both the correcting of the perception of deep state on the one hand and teaching a lesson to the political authority of the Pakistan with a very balanced and calibrated act of courage. Operation Sindoor was most calculated and a designed policy measure of the government of India and through this operation government wanted to hit both the military and political targets equally. The mid-night very precise Air Strike on the 9 terrorists locations and infrastructure inside the Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Jammu and Kashmir by India on 7 May,2025 were very precise in words but their actual area was very expanded as it covered the every knock and corner of the terrorists infrastructure in Pakistan. The most notable was the prevailing of confusion and challenge of responding back to India by the Pakistan authorities as it took too much time even to hold a press conference to confirm the attack by the Pak authorities. Moreover, the diffusion of Pakistani drones and missile attacks by the India’s security forces has changed the security dynamics of South Asia. India’s diplomatic and sincere presentation to world regarding the Air Strikes on Pakistan confirmed the world that India doesn’t want any escalation or war with Pakistan as it has targeted only the terrorists and terrorist infrastructure and not the military and civilian sites of the Pakistan. The hitting back to India by the Pakistan was an invitation of the escalation to which India was already prepared if required so and the Pakistan made the mistake by hitting India. The strategy and technology of the conventional warfare used by India has deeply destabilised the Pak military infrastructure and made it realise that the nuclear weapons and its first spectrum theory of deterrence is of no use in the new era of convention warfare against India.
Conclusion
The Indian response to the Pahalgam massacre is rooted not just in outrage, but in strategy. The imperative now is deterrence not in abstract, but as a policy, deterrence in classical theory not punishment alone. It is the imposition of credible, visible, and cumulative costs that alter the behavior of the adversary over the time. With the Operation Sindoor India has denied the Pakistan’s theory of first spectrum deterrence and established the new phenomena of the calibrated results with the technology and new equipments of the conventional warfare through the quick , targeted and calculated action against the adversary.
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