Rationales Of Pakistan-Saudi Strategic Pact – OpEd
The recent sealed Pakistan-Saudi defense agreement is not just a further development of bilateral relations, but a major change in the local security system of the Middle East and South Asia. Whereas earlier a traditional friendship that had been based on cultural, religious, and economic collaboration has been developed, it is currently being transformed into a structured military partnership, which is being designed according to the growing unstable geopolitical environment. As threats in the region are on the rise, global alliances are changing, Riyadh and Islamabad are moving towards strategic embrace to guarantee mutual defense and long term influence in the region.
The main element of this defense agreement is the shared image of growing external threats. The two countries have increased pressure by the foreign powers seeking to influence them in the Middle East by using diplomatic pressures, military aggression, or undercover missions. Top on this list is the increasing aggressiveness of Israel in the region. Its recent aggression towards Qatar, as well as its decades-old military presence in the rest of the region, has caused a wave of anxiety throughout the Gulf. Saudi Arabia, which used to be skeptical over the possibility of normalization as part of the U.S.-brokered Abraham Accords, seems to be reversing its step following the military operations of Israel, especially its destructive offensive against Gaza. The Kingdom is now reconsidering its strategic priorities and partners.
Pakistan is a figure of a natural and reliable ally in this environment. Being a nuclear power with a sizeable, battle-experienced army and a rich history of collaboration with the Gulf states, Pakistan meets both deterrent and ideological requirements. Although not an ideal stabilizer, with the complicated relationship with Iran, the Taliban-controlled Afghanistan and the weak state side of the country politics, Pakistan nevertheless offers Saudi Arabia a dependable counterbalance to the aggressive forces, such as Israel and foreign spy game.
It is not a stretch to agree with Dr. Ali Al-Hindi who proposed that this agreement would eventually become a larger Islamic military alliance similar to NATO. The already existing precedent is the Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition (IMCTC) spearheaded by Saudi Arabia in 2015, and of which Pakistan was one of the foundational members. The first commander of it was even its former Pakistani Army Chief General Raheel Sharif. Although the IMCTC was originally conceived as a coalition against terrorism, broadening its options into an extended defense outfit would be the logical follow-up in the context of increased regional insecurity. This may involve collective military training, information exchange, coordination of cyber defense and the existence of rapid deployment forces -a kind of an Islamic collective security.
Moreover, the agreement also seems to react to an even less-publicized yet increasingly worrisome fact, the secret activities of India in the Middle East. The recent uncovering of an Indian naval intelligence ring by Qatar, among other similar ones in Iran, has highlighted the growing nature of Indian intelligence networks in the Gulf. Such developments have not only created eyebrows in Doha and Tehran but also in Riyadh, although despite having good economic and diplomatic relations with New Delhi, it has become alert to silent intruders and back-door shenanigans. This is not new or surprising in the case of Pakistan who has long accused India of cross-border subversion and espionage. However, current developments appear to be leading Saudi Arabia on the side of Islamabad on the perception of India as an instability source.
There are significant strategic implications of this alignment. It suggests a slight yet actual change in balancing act between India and Pakistan in Riyadh. Although Saudi Arabia is not going to be an overt one to pick a side between the two South Asian giants, the defense agreement with Pakistan will be seen as a strategic bias in New Delhi. It is also indicative of the increased understanding of the Gulf monarchies that the overdependence on the western powers (particularly U.S.) can no longer be a viable policy of security. The wavering foreign policy of Washington, passive stance in face of Israeli misdeeds and shift to the Indo-Pacific has created a gap in the security apparatus of the Gulf. This agreement is thus the effort by Riyadh to have that gap sealed by resorting to another Muslim dominated country with whom, it has military synergy with and which has a long history of security cooperation.
This agreement has more than a defensive meaning. It makes Saudi Arabia and Pakistan the leaders of the Islamic world when most of the Muslim nations are trying to find stronger intra-Islamic alliances against not only Western hypocrisy but also the disintegration of the region. It also strengthens the fact that the Muslim world needs to assume control of its own security and sovereignty, and not to depend on the outside forces whose interests tend to be different than that of the Muslim world. The establishment of a military cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is a message to the nations and the international community as a whole, not only Israel and India, but also that the Muslim world is not a passive entity when it comes to aggression.
It may be criticized by the difficulties of such a union: poor relations of Pakistan with Iran, its internal security troubles, and the difficulty of forming an Islamic military union in a region full of sectarian and political conflicts. These are valid concerns. But what is also obvious is that Riyadh and Islamabad are not striving to be perfect; they are striving to get a strategic advantage. And in the geopolitical polarized world today, strategic leverage can be more important than ideology or geographical agreement.
The Pakistan-Saudi agreement, however, was not only a bilateral military deal, but a reflection of the changing power balance, increasing distrust of each other in the ancient allies, and the yearning to have their own way in the region. It is yet to be determined whether this will be a formidable Islamic defense alliance or a high profile though low-profile alliance. What cannot be disputed, however, is that the Gulf is moving into a new stage where it is regional actors rather than external actors who are starting to put the driver seat in driving their own security future.
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