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Russia-China Axis’ Emergence As Global ‘Disruptionists’ – Analysis

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The Russia-China Axis has perceptionaly emerged as a ‘Global Disruptionist Combine’ when the dots are joined of Russia’s military adventurism in Ukraine with China’s military adventurism in South China Sea. The Russia-China Axis spanning Europe and Western Pacific recalls reminiscences of Germany-Japan Axis of World War II.

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The Germany–Japan Axis forced United States and its Western Allies to fight on two distant geographical theatres of war. Is global peace and security in 2022 is on the cusp of a historical repeat of World War II of Russia opening a European Theatre of War with China opening a second Indo Pacific Theatre of War in unison?

Portents available in 2022 point in that direction unless better geopolitical sense prevails on Russian President Putin to step aside from a catastrophic abyss in which China emboldened by past United States permissiveness is pushing Russia into.

Perceptionaly in 2022, what seems to be unfolding is that China is using Russia’s shoulders to aim at United States to take offset the US-led QUAD Coalition besieging of China which is being added to by nations of South East Asia and Western Europe.

Russia and China today are led by two Presidents-for-life with grandiose Grand Strategy blueprints of regaining past glories of reclaiming or domination of their peripheries. Russia and China under President Putin and President Xi Jinping have at their disposal powerful military machines encompassing conventional and nuclear warfare with threatening force-projection, cyber warfare and space warfare capabilities.

In terms of military adventurism reminiscent of World War II Germany and Japan contextually arising from the above are is a similar eco-system of two powerful militaristic States led by self-willed authoritarian leaders with king-sized egos. 

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Global peace and security is thus so endangered when such powerful leaders are at the helm that feel emboldened to gamble on military brinkmanship arising from their perceptions that the opposing Global Democratic Order to effectively deter them takes time to coalesce giving them long lead times to achieve their strategic coercive aims.

Precisely, this is where the dangers lie of fatal military miscalculations which could trigger off World War III??

Grave implications contextually arise for the Global Democratic Order exemplified in 2022 by United States, The West, Japan, India and Australia. 

The geopolitical and domestic milieu eco-system in which the Russia-China Axis thrives does not offer pace for rational strategic decision-making of risks-analysis of military adventurism.

In 2022, the global landscape cannot be carved into ‘Areas of Influence’ by propensity to impose military will in changing national boundaries. ‘Areas of Influence in 21st Century would have to be carved by economic power and not by military power,

Coming back to the point, the Russia-China Axis needs to be deterred from further military adventurism on their peripheries by resolute will both by the Atlantic Alliance/NATO and at the same time by Major Indo Pacific Powers in whose threat perceptions China currently figures high.

To the above end, NATO must get its act together in terms of show of credible resolute unity in face of the looming threat by Russia. There cannot be miffed or muted responses like that of Germany. Turkey, if it wishes to continue as member of NATO should demonstrate its solidarity with NATO by suitable manifestations in Eastern Mediterranean.

In Indo Pacific, to the above end, QUAD must not be apologetic about the underlying aim of its existence as a Coalition for “China Containment. While there is no ambiguity on commitments of United States, Japan and Australia to QUAD, it is India that must come out of its strategic ambiguity and strategic autonomy obsessions

India must be clear of its geopolitical and strategic aims and postures on the Russia-China Axis threat to global peace and security and the grave possibility that the Russia-China Axis has an incendiary potential to provoke World War III, wittingly or unwittingly.

Concluding, it needs to be stressed that the emergence of the Russia-China Axis is the stark reality of 2022. This reality cannot be wished away. If global peace and security is to be ensured then not only NATO and QUAD must get their act together against the Russia-China Threat but also both work towards synchronising joint responses in case of Russia-China Axis over-playing their military adventurism cards.

Dr. Subhash Kapila

Dr Subhash Kapila combines a rich and varied professional experience of Indian Army Brigadier ( Veteran), diplomatic assignments in the United States, Japan, South Korea, and Bhutan. Served in India's Cabinet Secretariat also. He is a Graduate of Royal British Army Staff College, Camberley, UK, Msc Defence Studies from Madras University and a Doctorate in Strategic Studies from Allahabad University. Papers have been presented by him in International Seminars in Japan,Turkey, Russia and Vietnam. Credited to him are over 1,500 Papers on geopolitical & strategic topical issues and foreign policies of USA, Japan, India, China and Indo Pacific Asia. He has authored two Books : "India's Defence Policies & Strategic Thought: A Comparative Analysis" and "China-India Military Confrontation: 21st Century Perspectives"

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