Fragment Or Federation: The Geostrategic Stakes Of Stability In The Northwest – OpEd
The northwestern frontier of Pakistan has been the pivot between nation building and disturbance of regions. This is a region sharing the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) with the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), which has long been used to enduring the shockwaves of foreign invasions, ideological insurgencies, and proxy wars. It is not just an isolated boundary region, it is the political pivot that Pakistan can neither afford to lose its domestic harmony nor its international credibility.
The recent developments in the region with the withdrawal of the United States out of Afghanistan and the restoration of ungoverned spaces across the border only enhanced the regional complex dynamic in the security situation. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has been weakened over the years, due to state counteraction but has since reassembled in the Afghanistan safe havens and its assault of violence within the Pakistani borders has renewed. In 2024, there was a 17 percent increase in militant attacks in Pakistan and KP and surrounding tribal areas had to absorb a huge portion. The attacks have not been confined only to outposts in remote locations anymore, they are getting more and more frequent against civilian and military targets in areas that are settled and inhabited, which can mean that the strategy and even audacity has changed.
The ideological campaign that accompanies the activities of the TTP strengthens its operational capability. Terrorists have switched to the digital methods of messaging and now use apps such as Telegram, WhatsApp, and TikTok to spread propaganda messages written in regional languages. There has been a change of rhetoric in that jihadism has been changed to local concerns that are usually presented either as stories of ethnic inequality or injustice. Such messages are supposed to take the national identity away among the Pashtun people by exerting the Pakistani state as the oppressor state instead of a state that guarantees rights. It is not a fight of the bullets but beliefs and misinformation is used like a weapon and confusing the facts.
What makes this equation even more entangled is the activity of malicious intelligence networks who use such narratives to use them in geopolitical ends. In Pakistan, the country has made numerous demonstrations on international platforms on foreign funding, equipping and directing of non-state actors inside its western borders. These proxies have the dual role of making Pakistan unstable on the one hand and diverting focus on the regional actions of the sponsoring state. KP therefore does not face the risk of a small-scale insurrection but the strategic part of the hybrid war against the integrity and sovereignty of the federation.
Amidst such looming threats, the emergence of Pakistan Army remains a key factor in maintaining national territories and providing protection to the citizens. The kinetic activities like Zarb-e-Azb, Radd-ul-Fasaad, and continuing intelligence-based operations in the KP region have broken hundreds of terrorist hideouts, the military destroyed the channels of cross-border infiltrations. But military success does not manage in causing peace in the long run. Otherwise, the character of this conflict in need of a whole-of-state approach will require integration of security, governance, economic development, and strategic communication.
Starting governance with presence is needed. In several regions that were previously within tribal governance systems or that of influence and power of militants, the civilian state is yet to solidify. To introduce rule of law, there should be police forces that are well equipped, operational judicial system and transparent service delivery. That is where technology and bodies such as NADRA can lead a revolutionary change. Through the biometric registration of citizens, associating them with publicly accessed services and their making visible to the state, the vacuum, which has been used by terrorists can be filled.
The second pillar of stabilization is development. Poverty is characteristic in places where militancy flourishes. Put a China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into perspective, these infrastructure projects including the Kurram Tangi Dam, border markets, and roads belong to an economic tool arsenal, but to a strategic asset. They link up the neglected areas to the national markets, make employment and build up ownership of the success of the state. In addition, vocational training, youth scholarship and small business loans are instruments that can turn the population at risk to violence, to productive forces.
The information arena is where the greatest ignored but decisive front is. The state needs to speak against any such story or narrative that will want to question the validity of the Pakistan institutions or bring the operations of Army as anti-people operation. This will involve media campaign based on facts, local culture and national values. Reports about Pashtuns are equally working in Army and police and in civil services, should be more widely spread. The strategic communication cannot be reactive to the disinformation but rather proactive to the disinformation by engaging communities, reaching out to the media, and message consistency.
Protecting borders is not open to compromise. The recent fencing of the Pak-Afghan border which has been completed more than 90 percent has been useful in curbing infiltration. However, there are still gaps with surveillance, drones’ coverage and tribal liaison. Combining the contemporary technologies with the classic human intelligence should help to keep in mind that terrorists would never think about using the family or the tribal relations in a form of their escape. At the same time, Pakistan is to keep demanding international responsibility in Afghanistan where recognized TTP members have a refuge.
The global community should not be left out either in the stacks of the game. The stability in Northwest of Pakistan is not only an issue of Pakistan itself. It directly affects the promotion of regional trade, the struggle against terrorism, the population movement toward refugees, and the nuclear security. An unstable KP translates to an unstable South Asia. So, Pakistan needs help in combating terrorism whether in terms of intelligence exchange, financial assistance or using diplomatic powers to act against the rogue elements and this is a worldwide duty.
In the northwest what is being fought over is not just territory but, to the ideological and administrative integrity of the federation, itself. Any permission to become a part of a fragment, politically, ethnically, or geographically, would encourage the aggressive entities and loosen the state internally. In comparison, reaffirming national unity by means of just governance, strategic strength and encompassing identity will see to it that not only will the region survive but prosper by all measures a powerful, sovereign Pakistan.
The choice is clear. Fragmentation serves foreign agendas. Federation protects the nation.
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