The Return Of Trump’s Maximum Pressure Policy: A Setback For Arab Countries – OpEd
Contrary to popular belief, Donald Trump’s policy of maximum pressure is far from good news for Arab nations. During his first presidency, Trump’s primary strategy centered on exerting intense pressure on Iran, a move that was initially welcomed by some Arab states. These countries believed that weakening Iran, their geopolitical rival, would secure their own interests. However, the recent improvement in relations between Iran and its Arab neighbors has demonstrated that Iran is no longer perceived as a major geopolitical threat. Instead, a renewed U.S. campaign of maximum pressure on Iran risks souring relations between Tehran and its Arab neighbors, undermining the fragile progress toward regional de-escalation.
While a handful of Arab countries may still cling to the misguided belief that maximum pressure serves their interests, this approach could reignite old crises and hostilities in the region. In reality, after years of tension, both Iran and Saudi Arabia have come to recognize that stability and shared interests can only be achieved through reducing tensions. Since 2020, positive developments have emerged, including a China-mediated reconciliation between the two regional powers. This rapprochement has been reflected in diplomatic engagements and regional dialogues, with Saudi and Emirati officials adopting a more conciliatory tone toward Iran. They have publicly acknowledged that cooperation with Tehran is essential for maintaining regional security and stability. This marks a significant shift from the past, when Riyadh viewed its relationship with Iran as inherently adversarial. Today, Saudi Arabia recognizes that continued hostility benefits neither side. This change in approach coincides with efforts by other Gulf states, such as the UAE and Qatar, to strengthen economic and security ties with Iran. These developments suggest that Arab nations have concluded that reconciliation with Iran offers greater economic and security benefits while helping to avert regional geopolitical crises.
However, Trump’s return and his renewed strategy of maximum pressure against Iran threaten to disrupt this delicate progress. Under such pressure, Iran would likely prioritize its survival and resistance to external threats over improving relations with its neighbors. This shift in focus would mean less emphasis on diplomacy and regional dialogue and more on bolstering military capabilities and internal stability. As a result, the de-escalation process between Iran and Arab states could stall, and tensions in Arab-U.S. relations might escalate.
At a time when the Middle East is undergoing significant political and economic transformations, Arab countries require a stable and secure environment to pursue critical projects, such as port expansions, energy initiatives, and large-scale investments. Trump’s maximum pressure policy on Iran would undermine these efforts, creating instability that harms the entire region. Turkey, however, stands to benefit from increased U.S. pressure on Iran, as it seeks to expand its influence in Syria and Iraq. Similarly, Israel, which has long viewed Iran’s military power and regional influence as a threat, would welcome any weakening of Tehran. Maximum pressure could diminish Iran’s economic and military strength, thereby enhancing Israel’s ability to counter Iranian threats. This shift in the regional balance of power toward Turkey and Israel would not serve the interests of Arab nations.
Another complicating factor is Turkey’s recent foreign policy, which has included support for Islamist movements like the Muslim Brotherhood in several Arab countries. This stance has been particularly evident in North Africa and the conflicts in Syria and Libya, creating rifts between Ankara and Arab states. Such divisions could hinder security and economic cooperation among Arab nations, further straining regional relations. Additionally, a shift in the balance of power in favor of Israel poses a significant threat to Arab countries, particularly in light of the ongoing Gaza conflict and the loss of Palestinian influence. If regional pressures against Iran weaken the bargaining power of Arab states, Israel could advance its policies toward Palestine and other regional issues with little regard for Arab opposition. This would not only destabilize inter-Arab relations but also diminish the ability of Arab nations to address regional and international challenges effectively.
In essence, Trump’s return to a policy of maximum pressure would not only target Iran but also expose Arab countries to new and complex threats. Arab states must recognize that their national and regional interests are best served through regional cooperation, not by aligning with policies that exacerbate crises and deepen divisions. Ultimately, if Arab countries, Turkey, and Iran aspire to a stable and secure future, they must prioritize diplomacy and regional collaboration. Only through collective efforts can the Middle East navigate its challenges and achieve lasting peace.
