India-China Border Agreement: Redefining Regional Dynamics In South Asia – OpEd

India and China have recently agreed to reduce border tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), a significant move that reshapes the dynamics within the China-India-Pakistan triangle. After years of intermittent clashes in the Himalayas, both countries are now signaling a preference for diplomacy, recognizing the economic and strategic disadvantages of prolonged conflict. This shift indicates a pragmatic approach by China, which appears to prioritize stable relations with India, aligning with its broader economic and geopolitical goals, such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

The BRI, a global infrastructure project intended to boost trade connectivity, depends heavily on regional stability, making peaceful relations with India advantageous for China. Although China’s long-standing alliance with Pakistan remains firm especially with the ongoing China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project that cuts through Pakistan-administered Kashmir – the recent de-escalation with India adds complexity to China’s support for Pakistan, particularly on sensitive issues like Kashmir.

Pakistan, an ally of China and adversary of India, plays a crucial role in this evolving context. For decades, China has supported Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir, especially in international forums. This support intensified after India’s 2019 decision to abrogate Article 370, which altered the special status of Jammu and Kashmir and drew sharp criticism from Pakistan and China alike.

With CPEC running through this contested region, China’s economic interests are intertwined with Pakistan’s position on Kashmir. However, China’s willingness to de-escalate with India signals a careful recalibration of its approach. While China continues to support Pakistan diplomatically, it may stop short of active involvement in the Kashmir dispute, instead promoting bilateral dialogue between India and Pakistan. This approach could allow China to navigate a balanced stance, maintaining strategic partnerships without risking its relations with India.

China’s calculated approach reflects its recognition of India’s growing importance as an economic and military power. Avoiding confrontation with India prevents China from inadvertently pushing India closer to the United States, particularly within the Quad, a strategic alliance comprising the US, India, Japan, and Australia, which counters China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Stability with India thus serves China’s broader interests, enabling flexibility in its foreign policy without compromising its longstanding commitments to Pakistan.

The implications of this diplomatic shift extend beyond China’s relationship with India and Pakistan. The de-escalation opens opportunities for India and China to explore areas of mutual interest, such as trade and climate action, while reducing the likelihood of heightened tensions in South Asia. For Pakistan, however, this shift presents both challenges and opportunities. China’s emphasis on diplomacy and stability may prompt Pakistan to reconsider its expectations of China’s support on Kashmir, recognizing that China’s involvement is likely to remain limited to diplomatic channels. While China’s relationship with Pakistan, particularly through CPEC, is expected to stay robust, China’s increasing focus on stability with India could signal to Pakistan the potential benefits of exploring peaceful resolutions to its own disputes with India.

As India and China pursue a less confrontational relationship, Pakistan may need to adapt to an increasingly complex regional framework where traditional alliances are moderated by economic interests and strategic calculations. This diplomatic recalibration by China underscores a broader shift in South Asia, highlighting the balance China maintains between supporting Pakistan and fostering stability with India.

By prioritizing economic goals over conflict, China demonstrates its intent to shape regional dynamics without compromising its alliances, showcasing a pragmatic approach where traditional allegiances are supplemented by evolving interests in an interconnected region. The recent India-China agreement to de-escalate along the LAC represents a new chapter in South Asian relations, underscoring the intricate interplay of economic and strategic interests that drive diplomacy among China-India-Pakistan triangle.