Putin Won’t End War in Ukraine Because He Fears Separatism In Russia – OpEd

Among the reasons that Vladimir Putin will not end his war against Ukraine short of a decisive victory is that he fears the example of any Ukrainian success in resisting the Russian army will give rise to a powerful wave of separatism among the regions and republics of the Russian Federation, Abbas Gallyamov says.

The Russian commentator who earlier worked as a speechwriter for Putin says that Putin’s fear of such an outcome should not be ignored in assessments of how long the Kremlin leader will fight (facebook.com/abbas.gallyamov/posts/10229549389229651 reposted at   echofm.online/opinions/eshhyo-odna-prichina-pochemu-putin-ne-hochet-prekratit-vojnu).

Putin is very much aware of two things, Gallyamov says. He knows that the hypercentralization of the Russian Federation that he has sponsored will at some point give rise to centrifugal forces “similar to the one that toppled the Soviet Union” a generation ago. And he knows how much non-Russian movements already “support Ukraine and condemn Moscow.”

Consequently, the commentator says, the Kremlin leader feels compelled to continue his war in Ukraine until a victorious conclusion so that they can point to that victory as a reason why non-Russians and regional movements within the Russian Federation should give up because hey will have no chance.

If Putin were to stop the war short of that, Gallyamov suggests, Putin’s assertions that he could stop a new separatist wave would be hollow indeed.

About Paul Goble

Paul Goble is a longtime specialist on ethnic and religious questions in Eurasia. Most recently, he was director of research and publications at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy. Earlier, he served as vice dean for the social sciences and humanities at Audentes University in Tallinn and a senior research associate at the EuroCollege of the University of Tartu in Estonia. He has served in various capacities in the U.S. State Department, the Central Intelligence Agency and the International Broadcasting Bureau as well as at the Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Mr. Goble maintains the Window on Eurasia blog and can be contacted directly at [email protected] .

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