Sole Reliance On Russia May Prove Disastrous For Armenia: Stratfor

The growing Russia-Turkish partnership as well as Moscow’s recent overtures towards Azerbaijan show that the sole reliance on Russia may prove disastrous for Armenia, an article on the American geopolitical intelligence platform Stratfor said on Tuesday, November 28.

“The current strategic rift between Russia and the US complicates Armenian efforts to pursue a balanced foreign policy,” the article says.

“The Western rhetoric on containment against Russia may eventually put Armenia under tough Russian pressure to restrict its interactions with the US and NATO. However, core national interests of Armenia require to keep at least the current level of cooperation with the Western institutions in general and with the US in particular. The growing Russia-Turkish partnership as well as recent Russian overtures towards Azerbaijan, including the multi-billion USD modern assault weaponry sales, indicates that the sole reliance on Russia may prove disastrous for Armenia. Thus, in a short-term perspective, Armenian foreign policy will deal with the hard task of keeping its partnership with the West, and simultaneously avoiding anger Russia and jeopardizing its strategic alliance with Moscow.”

Also, the article weighs in on another key aspect of Armenia’s foreign policy agenda – the Nagorno Karabakh conflict.

“The 2016 April Azerbaijani large-scale four-day offensive along the Karabakh-Azerbaijan line of contact put additional pressure on the negotiation process,” the article says about the efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group to reach a peaceful settlement of the conflict.

“In two subsequent summits held in May 2016 in Vienna and in June 2016 in Saint Petersburg Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents agreed to increase the number of OCSE monitors as well as to establish ceasefire violations investigative mechanisms. Nevertheless, till now Azerbaijan has rejected the realization of agreements, while Armenia viewed them as a necessary condition for resuming any substantial negotiations.”