By Paul Goble
By 2025, the GDP per capita of the population of the Russian Federation will fall another two places among the countries of the world to 70th place into a virtual tie with that of the residents of Turkmenistan, with 12,970 US dollars each compared to 12,850, according to projections by the International Monetary Fund.
At present, the IMF says, the Russian figure is 20 percent larger than that of Turkmenistan, even though it has fallen 1600 US dollars from a year earlier. But it is projected to continue to fall, even as Turkmenistan’s figure rises over the next five years, the Fund study reports (ehorussia.com/new/node/22011).
China already exceeds the Russian number but by 2025, its lead will have dramatically widened to 3,258 dollars per capita more. In these and many other cases, the IMF continues, Russia will continue to fall more and then recover far more slowly than these other economies, a pattern that will leave if ever further behind even when it says it is recovering.
The post-Covid growth of the Russian economy over the next five years will be only half as much as that of the world average of 5.2 percent and more than half of that among developing countries which are projected to have an average rate of growth of 6.0 percent. Among major economies, only Japan is likely to have a lower rate of growth (2.3 percent) than Russia.